osfan24 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 6 minutes ago, snowfan said: It actually looks very reasonable. Hey, we will find out. That's what makes this fun. I just think it completely ignores the GFS, which has been leading the whole way, and the Euro, which are both much farther north. HRRR is still a bit out of range but the 7-10 area looks like it will be better suited for an ark than an igloo, but that's why he's a met and I'm just a weather fan! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter Wizard Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 16 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Wow, must be expecting a south trend or hanging your hat on the NAM. Those clown maps are going to be inflated, especially when you consider the warm soil temperatures. Should there be wobbles north/south you can adjust that map accordingly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 23 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: It def can happen but your post illustrates my point perfectly. Once every 10-15 years it happens. And since it did (in my yard) in Jan 2019, we can discuss the next time as we approach 2030. You’re right that it’s not typical. And I know you’re kidding but we do have some who think there are numerical patterns and while storms that fringe the NW zones are rare they can happen in bunches. There were a few in 1980 for example. Hence the rare year Richmond and DC had more snow then up here. Not saying it’s likely now…just that there is chaos at play here. I’m not worried. I do think there is a good chance I get fringed tomorrow but it will even out over time so it’s ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Congrats to usedtobe and the southerners! Like others said, I'm just going to let the chips fall where they will. I've kept an eye on this but never had any big expectations, and honestly it's not worth it in this region to get so sucked in. An inch or two will still be a nice treat. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 4 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: LWX must have a different definition of “worst-case” scenario than the rest of us. 1 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjvanals Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 5 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: RGEM is an DCA to Annapolis crush job. I actually like that it has a bit of sleet getting close to DC for a bit since that's a realistic aspect of most of our bigger storms 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 I know rates always win, but after being out in the yard for the past two hours, I believe that I would define the ground temps as “molten hot lava”. 4 9 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Just now, jaydreb said: LWX must have a different definition of “worst-case” scenario than the rest of us. They're probably weenies just like us but they have to play to the crowd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 GFS looking good thru 18. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 My standard word of caution that the 10:1 maps should not be used verbatim in many events, but especially in one with warm ground and marginal temps (at least at the start). We're not going to see 10:1 for most of the event, and while I am a believer in rates overcoming warm ground (especially when it's not the middle of the day), some accumulation could initially be lost. The accumulated snow depth maps tend to cut amounts a bit too much in these scenarios, but a compromise between the 10:1 and snow depth maps can work. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjvanals Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Liking GFS through 21... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: You’re right that it’s not typical. And I know you’re kidding but we do have some who think there are numerical patterns and while storms that fringe the NW zones are rare they can happen in bunches. There were a few in 1980 for example. Hence the rare year Richmond and DC had more snow then up here. Not saying it’s likely now…just that there is chaos at play here. I’m not worried. I do think there is a good chance I get fringed tomorrow but it will even out over time so it’s ok. I've pondered why the "storm highways" set up the way they do. It's unpredictable at any range b4 it sets up but once a track gets "carved" in an active pattern, it's rather incredible how the atmosphere truly appears to have a memory. Kinda like I70 in the Midwest. So many trucks driving the same road for so long it created depressions in the highway that will steer your car for you. I once went over 20 miles in Central KS without touching the steering wheel. The atmosphere seems to work the same way at times. 3 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 GFS gonna be a mauling. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herb@MAWS Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 If everything is covered white I’ll claim victory, given where we were 48 hrs ago. Don’t care if it’s 1-2” vs 3-5”. Just want it to look like winter, is all. ☃️ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 gfs looks fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjvanals Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 This is better than last night for DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 GFS says 10+ for basically everyone 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Ellinwood uploaded his map into the 12z gfs and then the gfs did gfs things 1 14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Just guarantee this panel happens tomorrow and I’ll be happy 7 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjvanals Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 1 minute ago, rjvanals said: This is better than last night for DC Temps are also into the upper 20's during the heavy period of snow which is great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 WB 12Z GFS 2 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, rjvanals said: This is better than last night for DC I mean, I just don't understand some of the maps out there given this. I think the GFS is generally terrible but I have to admit it has been the clear leader with this storm. I'd hang my hat on a GFS/Euro blend with this one over the other models and take my chances. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 2 1 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 I'm reassured now... The Gfs has been leading the way with this storm for days. Nam and icon pooped the bed but they haven't exactly been consistent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 I've pondered why the "storm highways" set up the way they do. It's unpredictable at any range b4 it sets up but once a track gets "carved" in an active pattern, it's rather incredible how the atmosphere truly appears to have a memory. Kinda like I70 in the Midwest. So many trucks driving the same road for so long it created depressions in the highway that will steer your car for you. I once went over 20 miles in Central KS without touching the steering wheel. The atmosphere seems to work the same way at times. I sorta believe in the concept of atmospheric memory, as much as I hate to admit it. It’s probably easily explainable that storms will track similar paths during the same pattern, but I do like seeing this storm because maybe one follows the same path later in the winter, lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 We have been GFS’ed! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 2, 2022 Author Share Posted January 2, 2022 @CAPEliking a blend of the 12z GFS and 6z Euro for his yard. 15-20” seems reasonable 4 8 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Yasss gfs, more to the north this run. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 5 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said: this was by far the best GFS run. We needed that after the Nam fiasco 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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