Winter Wizard Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Good morning everyone, here are my thoughts on the storm. 7 4 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I'm not going to derail this thread anymore after this. I'm not the same Bob Chill I was for most of the past 15 years. The ROI on snow chasing around here is embarrassingly small. I've wasted enough time with it already. That chapter is closed. I wrote this winter off (as a good setup in general) back in Sept and never changed my mind. It still hasn't changed but that doesn't mean we don't back our way into acceptable events/totals. That said, I'm only going to be here for legit long track coastals and super short range and/or obs threads. I don't give a single F what any op shows d5+ unless it's a big dog. I'm not tracking any middle of the road shortwave beyond 48-72 hours and even then it's a very casual approach. My time is valuable and chasing ghosts is a complete and total waste of it i feel similarly about my time spent tracking the wizards/skins lol. the nba is truly still a superstar league and the wft/skins/hogs/red wolves/whatever they're gonna be need to figure out who's going to be their starting qb. re weather...the analysis part is fun...the lack of control is not. learning can kinda cancel that out and make you more wise about picking which storms to invest time in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, Winter Wizard said: Good morning everyone, here are my thoughts on the storm. Wow, must be expecting a south trend or hanging your hat on the NAM. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Wow, must be expecting a south trend or hanging your hat on the NAM. Looks reasonable to me considering the antecedent conditions and the progressive nature of the pattern. You really buy those pretty WB clown maps? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 RGEM is actually a touch more NW and heavier 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 RGEM 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 1 minute ago, CAPE said: Looks reasonable to me considering the antecedent conditions and the progressive nature of the pattern. You really buy those pretty WB clown maps? It also seems pretty spot on to LWX’s WSW of 3-5” for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 1 minute ago, CAPE said: Looks reasonable to me considering the antecedent conditions and the progressive nature of the pattern. You really buy those pretty WB clown maps? No, I was more looking at how much snow he has so far south. I'd be super worried about rain and mixing down that way. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 This has a very March 2009 feel to it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 7 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Wow, must be expecting a south trend or hanging your hat on the NAM. It actually looks very reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, CAPE said: Looks reasonable to me considering the antecedent conditions and the progressive nature of the pattern. You really buy those pretty WB clown maps? I agree, I’m not as optimistic about the 7-10” region but the rest looks exactly like mine. Hoping to lock in that look at 18Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Blade is on the Muck Truck and we're charging up. 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 RGEM is an DCA to Annapolis crush job. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 i'd feel pretty good along that dc to bmore corridor for this one. maybe starts out sloppy, but per the gfs temps/dews are in the 20s by around sunrise. if those temps/rates are correct, the morning commute (for those commuting) could be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 1 minute ago, osfan24 said: No, I was more looking at how much snow he has so far south. I'd be super worried about rain and mixing down that way. Have not seen much concern for that yet, other than at the beginning. Once the column cools, given the somewhat suppressed/offshore track of the low, it should remain all snow. Best fgen still progged there, so even with more marginal surface temps for at least part of the event, a longer duration of moderate/heavy snow in those areas should get it done. I might have placed the heaviest snow area slightly further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 I love the RGEM as a weenie, but I think (based pretty much only on anecdotal evidence) it’s usually more bullish than warranted. Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 6 minutes ago, snowfan said: It actually looks very reasonable. Hey, we will find out. That's what makes this fun. I just think it completely ignores the GFS, which has been leading the whole way, and the Euro, which are both much farther north. HRRR is still a bit out of range but the 7-10 area looks like it will be better suited for an ark than an igloo, but that's why he's a met and I'm just a weather fan! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter Wizard Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 16 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Wow, must be expecting a south trend or hanging your hat on the NAM. Those clown maps are going to be inflated, especially when you consider the warm soil temperatures. Should there be wobbles north/south you can adjust that map accordingly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 23 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: It def can happen but your post illustrates my point perfectly. Once every 10-15 years it happens. And since it did (in my yard) in Jan 2019, we can discuss the next time as we approach 2030. You’re right that it’s not typical. And I know you’re kidding but we do have some who think there are numerical patterns and while storms that fringe the NW zones are rare they can happen in bunches. There were a few in 1980 for example. Hence the rare year Richmond and DC had more snow then up here. Not saying it’s likely now…just that there is chaos at play here. I’m not worried. I do think there is a good chance I get fringed tomorrow but it will even out over time so it’s ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Congrats to usedtobe and the southerners! Like others said, I'm just going to let the chips fall where they will. I've kept an eye on this but never had any big expectations, and honestly it's not worth it in this region to get so sucked in. An inch or two will still be a nice treat. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 4 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: LWX must have a different definition of “worst-case” scenario than the rest of us. 1 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjvanals Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 5 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: RGEM is an DCA to Annapolis crush job. I actually like that it has a bit of sleet getting close to DC for a bit since that's a realistic aspect of most of our bigger storms 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 I know rates always win, but after being out in the yard for the past two hours, I believe that I would define the ground temps as “molten hot lava”. 4 9 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Just now, jaydreb said: LWX must have a different definition of “worst-case” scenario than the rest of us. They're probably weenies just like us but they have to play to the crowd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 GFS looking good thru 18. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 My standard word of caution that the 10:1 maps should not be used verbatim in many events, but especially in one with warm ground and marginal temps (at least at the start). We're not going to see 10:1 for most of the event, and while I am a believer in rates overcoming warm ground (especially when it's not the middle of the day), some accumulation could initially be lost. The accumulated snow depth maps tend to cut amounts a bit too much in these scenarios, but a compromise between the 10:1 and snow depth maps can work. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjvanals Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Liking GFS through 21... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: You’re right that it’s not typical. And I know you’re kidding but we do have some who think there are numerical patterns and while storms that fringe the NW zones are rare they can happen in bunches. There were a few in 1980 for example. Hence the rare year Richmond and DC had more snow then up here. Not saying it’s likely now…just that there is chaos at play here. I’m not worried. I do think there is a good chance I get fringed tomorrow but it will even out over time so it’s ok. I've pondered why the "storm highways" set up the way they do. It's unpredictable at any range b4 it sets up but once a track gets "carved" in an active pattern, it's rather incredible how the atmosphere truly appears to have a memory. Kinda like I70 in the Midwest. So many trucks driving the same road for so long it created depressions in the highway that will steer your car for you. I once went over 20 miles in Central KS without touching the steering wheel. The atmosphere seems to work the same way at times. 3 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 GFS gonna be a mauling. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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