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January 3 CAPE Storm


WxUSAF
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2 minutes ago, yoda said:

Not saying it's the same... but didn't we have a somewhat similar kind of storm in March a few years back?  50s/60s a few days or day before and I think with wet ground... ended up starting as snow and we got like 8"?

March 4, 2014. Was in the 60's the day prior followed by warning level snows with that (anafrontal?) system.

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1 minute ago, yoda said:

Not saying it's the same... but didn't we have a somewhat similar kind of storm in March a few years back?  50s/60s a few days or day before and I think with wet ground... ended up starting as snow and we got like 8"?

I think most of our snows happen that way in March. It works.

Low sun and lots of clouds lately, so any worries about warm/wet ground etc...well, no.

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1 minute ago, IronTy said:

It can really stop moving north now thank you.  

I bet the mean/consensus of today's 12z runs will be about where it ends up.  The storm is forming now and the models are "seeing" the diabetic energy release.  

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Now that h5 is closed and/or aggressive on all models, time to have fun with pin the tail on the almost certain frontogen band on the NW periphery. Models right now have it SE of the fall line. Does that ever happen with h5 passes like this? Climo has been showing up in the model trends....

Eta: another perspective is parrs/climo favored areas are still dancing  in the subsidence zone... how often does that verify?

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Just now, Bob Chill said:

Now that h5 is closed and/or aggressive on all models, time to have fun with pin the tail on the almost certain frontogen band on the new periphery. Models right now have it SE of the fall line. Does that ever happen with h5 passes like this? Climo has been showing up in the model trends....

Go on?

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3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Now that h5 is closed and/or aggressive on all models, time to have fun with pin the tail on the almost certain frontogen band on the NW periphery. Models right now have it SE of the fall line. Does that ever happen with h5 passes like this? Climo has been showing up in the model trends....

As a newly moved to monkton person, do go on…

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4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Now that h5 is closed and/or aggressive on all models, time to have fun with pin the tail on the almost certain frontogen band on the NW periphery. Models right now have it SE of the fall line. Does that ever happen with h5 passes like this? Climo has been showing up in the model trends....

Eta: another perspective is parrs/climo favored areas are still dancing  in the subsidence zone... how often does that verify?

Yes do tell, sir...(although I'm not sure whether Baltimore is truly a NW periphery, lol)

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