Deer Whisperer Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 Happy Hour GooFuS never fails Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 Just now, snowfan said: Yeah not even close to an anything but snow profile there. If you get the good precip, we actually have a pretty good temp setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 Just now, snowfan said: Not a good sounding guy but I don’t see that one being sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 1, 2022 Author Share Posted January 1, 2022 1 minute ago, MN Transplant said: If you've got the long-range HRRR and the GFS on your side, how can you go wrong? The best forecasts American dollars can buy! 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Not a good sounding guy but I don’t see that one being sleet Below freezing at all levels. This is not a sleet sounding. If the gfs is to be believed. DC has a chance at seeing plowable snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: Not a good sounding guy but I don’t see that one being sleet That’s a pasting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 2 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: h5 by 24 hrs showed we were gonna like it We are on the same wavelength. I didn’t look anywhere but around New York State when I looked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 So HRRR extended leading the way! Now GFS goes that way lol. Poor SE VA peeps. The panic down there must be real right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjvanals Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 Just now, SnowLover22 said: Below freezing at all levels. This is not a sleet sounding. Was doing some point and click on pivotal and it was showing it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 5 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Not a good sounding guy but I don’t see that one being sleet Correct sir. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 USA! USA! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 Gives us our winter storm watches NOAA 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 5 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said: GFS is either gonna bust hard or score a nice win. Funny that the NAM wants absolutely nothing to do with this Pretty odd to see such disparity like this given the start of the 'event' is inside of 40 hours. Easy to say its the goddamn NAM though so who cares lol. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 Give this 24 hours and southern New England is gonna be talking about snow … if this continues 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 1, 2022 Author Share Posted January 1, 2022 1 minute ago, Amped said: Nice visual. Increasing separation from the northern stream with a stronger southern stream shortwave. Maybe even a slight negative tilt on the 18z?? 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 1 minute ago, CAPE said: Pretty odd to see such disparity like this given the start of the 'event' is inside of 40 hours. Easy to say its the goddamn NAM though so who cares lol. That's la nina for ya! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 Just now, CAPE said: Pretty odd to see such disparity like this given the start of the 'event' is inside of 40 hours. Easy to say its the goddamn NAM though so who cares lol. And it’s not just the GFS. They are all trending the same way, except for that one model lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: Nice visual. Increasing separation from the northern stream with a stronger southern stream shortwave. Maybe even a slight negative tilt on the 18z?? Yep and that ns feature that was creating the lack of separation is becoming less deep, further north, and faster with each run. The models typical have ns features too far south. It’s why we always get screwed when looking at ns systems a few days in advance. I think models are typically too fast with ss systems and right on cue this one has slowed in the past few runs. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Nice visual. Increasing separation from the northern stream with a stronger southern stream shortwave. Maybe even a slight negative tilt on the 18z?? Watching the run come out, I knew when the 24&30 hour frames at h5 showed that continued separation of the N&S streams we were bound for a decent run. That's a much better reason for the trends than just trying to will the low and precip NW. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 Sunday:Showers and very mild with later morning early afternoon high of 65 becoming windy from northwest 15-20 mph with falling temperatures to 40-45 at dark. Rain mixing with and changing to snow around midnight and continuing thru Monday until about noon, windy, cold high around 35. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 9 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: It was plain as day from h5 that that was coming. I don’t think this trend can be ignored now. Look you know me. I’m on team bitter Enders…we go all the way to the bitter end. I’m not being a dick here, but how can you have faith in the GFS, being the only one showing it? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 Some of you guys just got NAM'd on the GFS. Have the tables turned? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 9 minutes ago, Amped said: I was checking that out too. Separate entities now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: And it’s not just the GFS. They are all trending the same way, except for that one model lol The GFS is either gonna score big, or go down in flames when the other guidance trends towards the NAM at 0z lol. It would get all the shit because it has been steadfast and has now upped the ante with a major snowstorm for a significant part of the region. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 1, 2022 Author Share Posted January 1, 2022 4 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Look you know me. I’m on team bitter Enders…we go all the way to the bitter end. I’m not being a dick here, but how can you have faith in the GFS, being the only one showing it? Hrrr and RGEM too? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IUsedToHateCold Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 1 minute ago, CAPE said: The GFS is either gonna score big, or go down in flames when the other guidance trends towards the NAM at 0z lol. It would get all the shit because it has been steadfast and has now upped the ante with a major snowstorm for a significant part of the region. I’d love to see the 18z Euro agree with the GFS. If that happens I’d be less afraid of the NAM 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 Just now, WxUSAF said: Hrrr and RGEM too? Quality. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 Dry-uary just ended here. Manhattans all around with the good stuff. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 2 minutes ago, IUsedToHateCold said: I’d love to see the 18z Euro agree with the GFS. If that happens I’d be less afraid of the NAM That's a big run coming up! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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