ncskywarn Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 RDU SERF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 The good ol' nam 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 8 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: I agree with that. They basically are waiting for more data before a WWA. Yeah you need a high enough rate to make it all snow and to overcome the high soil temps. You would need 1 or 2 inches an hour I think to have a shot at coating the ground. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mckinnonwg Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 NAM decided to back off for the west georgia region on the 18z.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 The Triad should like this run (doesn't account for soil temps): 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 29 minutes ago, eyewall said: Yeah you need a high enough rate to make it all snow and to overcome the high soil temps. You would need 1 or 2 inches an hour I think to have a shot at coating the ground. The inch or two of rain that will have fallen before any change over will also make any accumulation even more unlikely. In general I am a strong proponent of snow rate overcoming warm ground but there is a limit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 1 minute ago, jburns said: The inch or two of rain that will have fallen before any change over will also make any accumulation even more unlikely. In general I am a strong proponent of snow rate overcoming warm ground but there is a limit. This is true. I have seen that in Carrboro, NC. We had quarter mile vis and managed a patchy dusting which vaporized immediately upon the rate easing up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 41 minutes ago, eyewall said: This is true. I have seen that in Carrboro, NC. We had quarter mile vis and managed a patchy dusting which vaporized immediately upon the rate easing up. Yep- snow doesn’t accumulate well in mud puddles. I do like the trend to end as all snow on most models. Think a dusting to an inch is in play for most of the triangle. Hey- that could bust my prediction of no measurable snowfall this season! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 2, 2022 Author Share Posted January 2, 2022 35 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: Yep- snow doesn’t accumulate well in mud puddles. I do like the trend to end as all snow on most models. Think a dusting to an inch is in play for most of the triangle. Hey- that could bust my prediction of no measurable snowfall this season! Could end up a lot like the Feb 2020 "storm" (in the Triad) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Soil temps tonight: 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 12 minutes ago, eyewall said: Soil temps tonight: Don't be a downer lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mckinnonwg Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Soil temps tonight: That’s a good map-mind asking where you found?. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 6 minutes ago, mckinnonwg said: That’s a good map-mind asking where you found? . https://products.climate.ncsu.edu/map/ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 2, 2022 Author Share Posted January 2, 2022 9 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: Don't be a downer lol Great sun angle though! 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mckinnonwg Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 https://products.climate.ncsu.edu/map/Thanks, can’t seem to find one decent for georgia . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 27 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: Great sun angle though! If it snows and sticks to my mulch enough so that I can see it on the ring cam I’ll call it a win 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 18z 3k NAM was juicier for central NC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Relocated to the farm in Patrick Cty about 5 miles across the border. 1500' elevation. Its all I got. Models implying 2-4 across the county so the cams will be rolling. 55° and dead calm, patchy heavy fog too. Just like my Bengals today, lets get this win baby!! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leesville Wx Hawk Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Not a good run for mby. that 1.5 inches would be lucky to get a decent ground cover if it verifies. Central Virginia looking good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 1 hour ago, buckeyefan1 said: Nothing like the leeside screw zone...although the nam here gives me about 10 flakes...which very likely won't happen. Although I am curious to see how temps behave as this is a bit of a unique situation due to the track of the low. Normally winds are calm or very light in post low nw flow thanks to the mountains and there simply isn't any caa to speak of while precip is ongoing but the models are showing tremendous wind immediately behind the low. Curious if there will be a better temp crash than advertised or will downlope win out (most likely). Speaking of those winds, the ground here is now totally saturated and these high wind gusts are worrisome. As if its not bad enough being left out, losing power and down trees Would really add on an extra layer of misery to this one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Latest HRRR (02Z) and GFS still give wake 1-2 inches worth with the deformation band. I'll take it, even if it all melts on contact. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Heavy rain and real strong winds out there. Almost TS type conditions as of 5:40am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 7 hours ago, Lookout said: Nothing like the leeside screw zone...although the nam here gives me about 10 flakes...which very likely won't happen. Although I am curious to see how temps behave as this is a bit of a unique situation due to the track of the low. Normally winds are calm or very light in post low nw flow thanks to the mountains and there simply isn't any caa to speak of while precip is ongoing but the models are showing tremendous wind immediately behind the low. Curious if there will be a better temp crash than advertised or will downlope win out (most likely). Speaking of those winds, the ground here is now totally saturated and these high wind gusts are worrisome. As if its not bad enough being left out, losing power and down trees Would really add on an extra layer of misery to this one. I feel ya on that. Tough one to watch for SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Wind is next level this morning 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Still 36F and rain here. Not impressed with the trends at the moment. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 I don't think I have ever seen more water on the roads in Western Wake than I did this morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 36 and rain/mix was as good as it got here in my corner of North GA this morning, despite the HRRR's insistence on more right down to the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Down to 33° at 7am here in Stuart. Changeover should be this hour. Would love to see a snow squall but not expecting any accums. Everything is absolutely drenched! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
85snowline Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Concord here. 42 and the wind has been unbelievably strong for about 8hrs. Gusts to 30mph at times. Hoping the trees imby don't fall on the house. Checking traffic cams and looks like Rutherford County is snow now....also as usual.W-S is quickly changing to snow. The sky is brightening so looking forward to a few flakes even here on the dreaded 85snowline. Can anyone outside of the mountains verify snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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