strongwxnc Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 8 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Love that leeside minimum.. Always in play it seems like. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: Folks in DC would implode Indeed they would Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Given the dynamics involved with this system, I don’t think ground temps matter as much as they would for a lighter event. Snowfall coming down at 2” an hour will stick to a frying pan right off the cook top… It obviously will melt your accumulation somewhat so it won’t be maximized but you can get heavy totals with warm ground when the rates are what are being suggested. That being said- the NW trend took the vast majority of this board away from the party. The 1-4” of backend snowfall shown on models for much of NC is not going to be enough to overcome the warm ground, such as will happen in VA. A storm track inland over southern NC is not a conducive storm track for accumulating snow in these parts. Sure there will probably be some backend flakes but this is a Virginia storm for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Come to papa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 The nam even gave gsp some sloppy flakes 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 What a gorgeous low! The thing I love about weather is whatever goes up, must come down. After a week of April weather we go hard into the season with back to back lows. I think we’ll get some winds up to 40 mph in the Midlands and Lowcountry but other than that I’m not expecting much. It’s a shame soil temps are what they are, or else we could’ve had clipper like accums in North Alabama & Georgia. I will say though I expect some tornadoes today that definitely bear watching on the warm side of this. Not too much instability but just enough with a strong jet and tons of helicity. Definitely an October/November Midwest type threat today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 12z gfs follows with the low slightly sw of 06z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 2, 2022 Author Share Posted January 2, 2022 Just now, buckeyefan1 said: 12z gfs follows with the low slightly sw of 06z Brutal cutoff. 50 more miles and we're in business 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Just now, olafminesaw said: Brutal cutoff. 50 more miles and we're in business Indeed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 2, 2022 Author Share Posted January 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said: I myself enjoy the snow maps, but...not very helpful other than for trends Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 gfs 0z gfs 12z 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 0z gfs 12z gfs 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 I think this is Virginia's storm through and through, and I think that after this brutal December we should be rooting for our neighbors. I think they're in for a nice little paste bomb. After this torch stretch, we should of known a system wouldn't just fall right into our lap, that would of been way too easy!! I'm pretty pessimistic on accumulation. I usually tune the ground temps argument out but I think it has a little more merit after a historic torch. However, I think the northern half of NC gets at the very least some token flakes morning in noon on Monday. I hope it's pretty! Lastly, i wouldn't sleep on the end of the week. A little bit of juiced-up clipper potential. We still likely need some adjustments to have that shortwave dig a little more. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 2 hours ago, olafminesaw said: I myself enjoy the snow maps, but...not very helpful other than for trends The bottom map is what will happen. Yes peeps in Virginia from Richmond to Roanoke and Charlottesville will do well. But Im keeping my expectation in check with some wet snowflakes mixed in with the rain and maybe a very brief period of snow. Im not even concerned about accumulation here it would just be nice to see some fall. Good luck to you guys in the Mtns. You should get a good clobbering out of this. Maybe blizzard like conditions in the higher elevations. Take pics for piedmont peeps 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 3 minutes ago, Avdave said: The bottom map is what will happen. Yes peeps in Virginia from Richmond to Roanoke and Charlottesville will do well. But Im keeping my expectation in check with some wet snowflakes mixed in with the rain and maybe a very brief period of snow. Im not even concerned about accumulation here it would just be nice to see some fall. Good luck to you guys in the Mtns. You should get a good clobbering out of this. Maybe blizzard like conditions in the higher elevations. Take pics for piedmont peeps Yeah I just wanted to be able to get some good shots but it wasn't meant to be. We will see on the token flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 4 minutes ago, eyewall said: Yeah I just wanted to be able to get some good shots but it wasn't meant to be. We will see on the token flakes. With the way last winter was here, Ill take some flakes falling from the sky. Sadly Ill probably miss it as Ill be at work in the airport. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 3 minutes ago, Avdave said: With the way last winter was here, Ill take some flakes falling from the sky. Sadly Ill probably miss it as Ill be at work in the airport. yeah I just wish I could move back to Vermont. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 RDU zones down to little or none as opposed to less then 1/2. Not that this makes a big difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 18z hrrr looks better for Wake. I think we get a good burst of snow for 1-2 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING... * WHAT...Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible. * WHERE...A portion of central North Carolina, including the following counties, Alamance, Anson, Chatham, Cumberland, Davidson, Durham, Edgecombe, Forsyth, Franklin, Granville, Guilford, Halifax, Harnett, Hoke, Johnston, Lee, Montgomery, Moore, Nash, Orange, Person, Randolph, Richmond, Sampson, Scotland, Stanly, Vance, Wake, Warren, Wayne and Wilson. * WHEN...From Midnight EST tonight through Monday morning. * IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - Showers and thunderstorms will overspread the central North Carolina late this evening and overnight, as an area of low pressure and cold front cross the region. A widespread two to three inches of rain are expected through Monday. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 NWS Raleigh has removed any mention of snow for the Raleigh zones now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 9 minutes ago, eyewall said: NWS Raleigh has removed any mention of snow for the Raleigh zones now. That's very surprising...especially since model consensus, including short-range hires models, show at least a 2-3 hour period of snow. I wouldn't even be surprised to see a winter weather advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Just now, PackGrad05 said: That's very surprising...especially since model consensus, including short-range hires models, show at least a 2-3 hour period of snow. I wouldn't even be surprised to see a winter weather advisory. Agreed- pretty much everything has continued to show a period of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 4 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: That's very surprising...especially since model consensus, including short-range hires models, show at least a 2-3 hour period of snow. I wouldn't even be surprised to see a winter weather advisory. Yeah they must not be buying it. I am waiting to see the reasoning. I am waiting on their AFD to update for that time period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 348 PM Sunday... By Monday morning, colder air will have moved into the region, and the atmosphere will cool off enough to support snow in addition to rain as the surface low and upper level low reach central North Carolina and continue to push to the northeast. The hardest question to answer will be determining where snowfall rates are high enough to overcome the very warm ground temperatures in the 50s and 60s, considering temperatures have not fallen below freezing in the last week. While snow will melt on contact with a warm surface, a strong enough snowfall rate would be able to overcome the warm surface and allow for accumulation to begin. There is no good way to quantify this. The current forecast calls for snow to fall as far south as US- 64 and as far east as I-95, although there will be many locations that have a mix of rain and snow. The bulk of the accumulating snow should be located north of I-85 and occur during the morning hours. Considering the uncertainty of snow accumulation due to the warm ground, have decided to be conservative with coverage of a Winter Weather Advisory, and with the afternoon package will only issue an advisory for Person and Granville Counties, climatologically favored locations for snowfall. Later shifts will have the opportunity to decide if they want to expand the advisory area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 6 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said: Folks in DC would implode Amazing for a place that averages 14" a year they seem to get a lot of big storms every year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 I agree with that. They basically are waiting for more data before a WWA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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