olafminesaw Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 Seems someone somewhere will get something frozen. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 From RAL: .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 422 AM Saturday... During the day Sunday the front will move from approximately the foothills of NC eastward to roughly the I-95 corridor by late afternoon before the front stalls. This front will be accompanied by a band of showers and tstms that will be leftover from upstream activity the day before. As typical this time of year, instability will be marginal for svr weather; however deep layer wind shear will be abundant. Thus well have to closely watch temperature trends during the daytime Sunday and to what extent heating will contribute to instability. In any event, given the low end potential for svr convection, much of southern and southeast portions of central North Carolina are highlighted as marginal in the SWODY2. By late in the day Sunday the southern portion of the upper trof will attempt to close off while gradually pivoting to negative tilt by Sunday night. Vigorous forcing for ascent ahead of this negatively tilting upper trof, by way of phasing of the northern stream right entrance region coupled with the southern stream left exit region of the upr jets, the GFS and European models both show surface low pressure development along the southern end of the front over eastern or southeastern Georgia Sunday night. Should this indeed happen, the large scale upward forcing assoc with the surface low lifting NE across the coastal plain of the Carolinas coupled with the abundant moisture advection from the Atlantic could support a heavy rain event across parts of central North Carolina late Sunday and Sunday night. In fact, some localized flooding of poor drainage areas looks like a possibility Sunday night despite current drought situation. In addition, a svr convection potential will exist east and southeast of the surface low track and in conjunction with the warm sector Sunday and Sunday night, thus we`ll have to closely watch that track. As if these elements werent enough, as the low exits to our east and cold air wraps around from the north, BL temps will rapidly fall, and both the GFS and European suggest that the rain may briefly mix with some wet snow mainly along and north of the highway 64 corridor during the 9Z to 15Z time frame on Monday morning. Given the short duration of this wintry mix event, the antecedent warm surface conditions, and given the fact that the boundary layer temperatures will be marginally cold for wintry precip anyway, we believe that any wet snow that falls will have very little if any impact Monday morning. Its worth noting that the NAM is much more progressive with both the surface front during the day Sunday and subsequent low pressure development along it. In fact, its low pressure development along the front doesnt happen until the system is well to our east, thus resulting in a non-event for us for our area Sunday night. Unfortunately however, that model solution is an outlier among the guidance envelope. In terms of temps Sunday and Sunday night, high temps on Sunday of course will be dependent on cloud coverage and precip timing and placement. But right now it looks like most of central NC should see high temp readings from the upper 60s across the Triad to mid 70s across our southeast zones. Lows Sunday night will happen just before sunrise Monday morning behind the departing cold front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 One thing we will have is a big soil temp issue in regard to any accumulation. That will cut those model numbers down a lot. We would need some solid rates to overcome that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EarlGrey Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 Do I need to get milk and bread yet? Asking for a friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 1 hour ago, EarlGrey said: Do I need to get milk and bread yet? Asking for a friend. One cup of milk and two slices of bread should more than cover this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 1, 2022 Author Share Posted January 1, 2022 2 hours ago, eyewall said: One thing we will have is a big soil temp issue in regard to any accumulation. That will cut those model numbers down a lot. We would need some solid rates to overcome that. Yeah, and temps above freezing for the duration (outside any particular heavy rates.). Seems like relying on rates fails about twice as often as it succeeds, at least in the piedmont. Also, I'm not yet buying the amped up version the GFS is selling, which is our best shot at significant accumulation. The 18z GFS illustrates how an amped storm fails,by climbing too far North. It's a real tightrope. I suspect the hires NAM Is closest to how it plays out, but who knows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 RIP /thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 RIP? Looks good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 15 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said: RIP? Looks good It shifted quite a bit north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 Yeah, I am just not feeling good about this one. Once the north trend commences, it rarely trends back south. However, I could be wrong. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjwxman Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Yeah, I am just not feeling good about this one. Once the north trend commences, it rarely trends back south. However, I could be wrong.Agreed. RAH hasn’t mentioned anything frozen in their HWO for the Triad area. I’m sure they will with Sunday morning’s update. I’ve come to respect their seemingly conservative approach. It has served them well more times than not. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Still looks like a 3-4 hour period of wet snow for Wake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 9 hours ago, PackGrad05 said: Still looks like a 3-4 hour period of wet snow for Wake. This is now a mountains and VA event. Even we do see some wet flakes it won't stick with soil temps in the 60's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_Fort Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 4 minutes ago, eyewall said: This is now a mountains and VA event. Even we do see some wet flakes it won't stick with soil temps in the 60's. Yep. I’m just gonna take the token flakes and hope we have rates that put on a show for a few hours tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 While all you snow snobs are complaining because the ground temps are too warm for it to stay around after it stops, or it's too far north, there are plenty of us who would love to watch a few hours of mood flakes collect in a sloppy mess on the lawn 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 fwiw the hrrr has increased totals for ms/al the past couple of runs. More consolidated and a touch sw with the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmoon Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 I hope and pray sw Rutherford county can get in on a few flakes on the back edge before the moisture is all gone tomorrow morning. It will be close call as is it always is around here in these setups. We never do good down here with the cold chasing moisture scenarios. Takes forever and forever for the cold to get over the mountains down here. Good luck to all you mountain folks cashing in with this storm and hopefully the snow line can drop a little farther south for the foothills and northern upstate to see some flakes fly. I hope everyone who gets the snow enjoys it after this horrible December pattern we've been stuck in. Happy new years everyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 2, 2022 Author Share Posted January 2, 2022 NAM a tick back south again and quite amped 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Nam is a bit further south too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 45 minutes ago, Jmoon said: I hope and pray sw Rutherford county can get in on a few flakes on the back edge before the moisture is all gone tomorrow morning. It will be close call as is it always is around here in these setups. We never do good down here with the cold chasing moisture scenarios. Takes forever and forever for the cold to get over the mountains down here. Good luck to all you mountain folks cashing in with this storm and hopefully the snow line can drop a little farther south for the foothills and northern upstate to see some flakes fly. I hope everyone who gets the snow enjoys it after this horrible December pattern we've been stuck in. Happy new years everyone It is a battle we loose 9 of 10 times here in our county. But, should be fun to watch it develop and hopefully rake some folks! 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmoon Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 I know. Your exactly right. I was thinking of ya. Maybe were not out of the game yet. This storm keeps rapidly developing as we speak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Just now, buckeyefan1 said: Love that leeside minimum.. 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjwxman Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Sizable shift south on the HRRR, NAM’s. Combination of confluence over the Midwest and less amped? Interesting. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 1 minute ago, wncsnow said: Love that leeside minimum.. I feel your pain I'll be watching with envy as mby will just be wet 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 8 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said: Folks in DC would implode 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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