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Upstate/Eastern New York-Pattern Change Vs Tughill Curse?


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7 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Starting to see some flakes flying here as this band is pretty"broad" and somewhat weak and disorganized with some embedded heavier burst .

Those heavier burst keep coming through here every 10 minutes lol. Whiteout to nothing, whiteout to nothing lol. 

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3 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said:

GFS might explode on this run. H5 looks way better than 12z. Hopefully comes west a good bit.

ezgif-5-79dbf7cc2e.thumb.gif.d419750de1408fcaddd53f5cd82d4a9d.gif

Not so sure that matters as the high squashes its northward potential. The last storm had the high go underneath that low which caused it to go further NW then modeled the last few days.

prateptype_cat.conus.png

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3 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Not so sure that matters as the high squashes its northward potential.

prateptype_cat.conus.png

Yeah... f it lol. I'm about to give up. Nothing seems to matter. Thought for sure things might look different this run (not necessarily a hit for part of the forum) but the track played out about the same as 12z at the surface. O well.

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5 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said:

Yeah... f it lol. I'm about to give up. Nothing seems to matter. Thought for sure things might look different this run (not necessarily a hit for part of the forum) but the track played out about the same as 12z at the surface. O well.

Yep. Ends the same. I was sure, with these changes, it would kick west. Nope

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14 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said:

Yeah... f it lol. I'm about to give up. Nothing seems to matter. Thought for sure things might look different this run (not necessarily a hit for part of the forum) but the track played out about the same as 12z at the surface. O well.

 

12 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

You're right though as those 2 vorts caused it to bomb out quicker which would usually lead to a further NW track, but not with that high to the north.

Of course something wouldn't be placed right. There's always something...it's laughable at this point. Probably why Freak has given up on storm tracking for CNY.

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6 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

You're right though as those 2 vorts caused it to bomb out quicker which would usually lead to a further NW track, but not with that high to the north.

Curious but true...there is no real Greenland blocking if you look at the wider NoAm panels but there is HP relatively anchored in Quebec.  There's also not a trailing piece of upper level energy like the last system, so the timing is off, it maimtains a poitive tilt UL trough too long and it stays pretty far offshore at our latitude.

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10 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

I’ll be pretty surprised if GEFS doesn’t come west. I think one of our issues is lack of any heights to the east. Pretty flat along the EC. But it was improved for sure. Just kind of weird that it ended up the same. ?!?image.thumb.png.7473d92a206fba21451fd1fe2a444e6c.png

No substantive changes on the 18z gefs mean, it actually ticked SE of 12z.gfs-ensemble-all-avg-ne-t850_mslp_prcp6hr-3468400.thumb.png.933afe3f31e3342abb2c199b2c64f16a.png761324977_gfs-ensemble-all-avg-ne-mslp_with_low_locs-3468400(1).thumb.png.d44cce6f27032a3e76a62a4c6301043c.png

 

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Looking at the 18z init, the main piece of energy for this storm is nearly onshore right now in AK and British Columbia, and looks to be completely onshore by 0z this evening. There a couple other smaller players still in the Pacific that dont come onshore in AK and the Pac NW until tomorrow morning/early afternoon. Probably grasping at straws, but I'll hold out some hope until the 12z and 0z runs tomorrow.

gfs-deterministic-namer-vort500_z500-3133600.thumb.png.5a6cfb18e5d164c1778b46e73fbc5d19.png

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