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Upstate/Eastern New York-Pattern Change Vs Tughill Curse?


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Just now, TugHillMatt said:

I am absolutely puzzled by the synoptic drought CNY has been in the past several years. Every system has a way of screwing us. Perhaps Albany can get several feet this weekend and then we'll be on the bottom of the 5 Upstate cities. lol

For your sake I hope the coastal bomb comes west 200 miles. Then we can get some LE and you get the synoptic + LE. ;)

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7 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

I know it’s a pipe dream and I am keeping it in context but this is still 100 hrs out. There are several pieces of energy involved. I don’t think you can COMPLETELY rule out a scenario where this comes west 100-200 miles. Certainly CNY is still in the realm of possibilities. Same as a complete OTS miss is possible. 
Like Matt said, CLE didn’t think they had a chance in hell….Thursday 12z would be when the models start being really accurate. But they do seem to be locked in with a Boston Special as of now. I’ll still be watching. Of course. Lol

I grew up and spent 37 years in NJ. 
 

TRUST ME. It’s possible. 

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2 minutes ago, vortmax said:

I like this LE setup, the winds are shifting the band offshore and it's starting to consolidate again. Then in a couple hours the front comes through, enhances the band while pushing it south. May get another 3-6 out of it along the S Shore.

This morning was classic mid winter south shore fluff. Hope we get some more. 
One additional note for this weekend, there are some signs that we get a north flow that would support some fun regardless of how far away the storm is. 

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2 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

This morning was classic mid winter south shore fluff. Hope we get some more. 
One additional note for this weekend, there are some signs that we get a north flow that would support some fun regardless of how far away the storm is. 

I think this map could easily be underdone along the lake.

StormTotalSnowWeb.jpg

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2 minutes ago, sferic said:

Leaving Cicero Thursday to ride out the storm on Long Island.

 

Of course, if the low shifts west by 00z Thursday and looks to go across NYC I'll go to the catskills

 

In the off chance Onondaga gets into the goods, which is not likely I'd stay here

Gotta go to the snowbelts if you want the big snows!

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7 minutes ago, sferic said:

Leaving Cicero Thursday to ride out the storm on Long Island.

 

Of course, if the low shifts west by 00z Thursday and looks to go across NYC I'll go to the catskills

 

In the off chance Onondaga gets into the goods, which is not likely I'd stay here

By Thursday, some off hour NAM run will probably crush all of CNY and ENY

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2 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Based on the radar this afternoon, Syracuse and just SOUTH of the Thruway has been doing better with snowfall than the North Syracuse :weenie: zone.

I'm trying to figure out the best place to chase the storm to maximize snowfall and ready access to decent watering holes without spending too much if my CT friends are unavailable.  Lots of options on the table...other than CNY...

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3 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Based on the radar this afternoon, Syracuse and just SOUTH of the Thruway has been doing better with snowfall than the North Syracuse :weenie: zone.

Most of the snow has moved north. What a crazy setup. I had about an hour this morning when conditions looked really good. Then the band fell apart and the good action moved south. Now there is a few heavier cells but nothing organized. 

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1 minute ago, CNY_WX said:

Most of the snow has moved north. What a crazy setup. I had about an hour this morning when conditions looked really good. Then the band fell apart and the good action moved south. Now there is a few heavier cells but nothing organized. 

The 'Cuse forcefield reigns on to live another day. We shall continue nickel and diming our way to half of average. I think the band will move north for a bit now and then come crashing back south as winds turn NW. We've had occasional light snow through the rest of the afternoon after that initial band that dumped. Probably 3 to 4 new inches (synoptic last night and lake effect today).

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As the upper level trough becomes negatively tilted late Friday
night into Saturday, an upper level low will develop over the Mid
Atlantic, which will eventually kick the deepening low northeast off
the east coast and into New England. This in turn will support a
strong nor`easter off the coast of the Carolina`s to track northeast
along the East Coast throughout Saturday, and track east of Maine
Saturday night. Model consensus continues to keep the track of the
low, well to the east of the region and therefore expect only the
western fringes of the low to drop some snow across the far eastern
boarder of the region Saturday afternoon. Otherwise, expect the
remainder of the forecast area to remain on the dry side with all
but a small chance for some light lake effect snow southeast of Lake
Ontario Saturday morning due to limited synoptic moisture and
northwest flow.

Then, conditions look to be mainly quiet through the second half of
the weekend and into the first couple of days of the new work week
as surface high pressure will span across the region. However, the
upper level trough aloft will remain intact across the Mid-Atlantic
and Northeast which will not only keep the cold air in place but
also provide for some chances for a few snow showers Sunday night as
the trough axis passes overhead.
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5 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:
As the upper level trough becomes negatively tilted late Friday
night into Saturday, an upper level low will develop over the Mid
Atlantic, which will eventually kick the deepening low northeast off
the east coast and into New England. This in turn will support a
strong nor`easter off the coast of the Carolina`s to track northeast
along the East Coast throughout Saturday, and track east of Maine
Saturday night. Model consensus continues to keep the track of the
low, well to the east of the region and therefore expect only the
western fringes of the low to drop some snow across the far eastern
boarder of the region Saturday afternoon. Otherwise, expect the
remainder of the forecast area to remain on the dry side with all
but a small chance for some light lake effect snow southeast of Lake
Ontario Saturday morning due to limited synoptic moisture and
northwest flow.

Then, conditions look to be mainly quiet through the second half of
the weekend and into the first couple of days of the new work week
as surface high pressure will span across the region. However, the
upper level trough aloft will remain intact across the Mid-Atlantic
and Northeast which will not only keep the cold air in place but
also provide for some chances for a few snow showers Sunday night as
the trough axis passes overhead.

I dunno. This seems rather “absolute” this far out but they are the pros!

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