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Upstate/Eastern New York-Pattern Change Vs Tughill Curse?


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From BGM for this upcoming weekend (continuation of too much cold and dry):

Behind the departing upper low and on the back side another
Arctic blast of air will be felt across most of the Northeast
Saturday and Sunday. This incoming cold air will likely trigger
another round of lake effect snow. It is still uncertain how
much snow at this point given that the air mass may be too cold
for significant accumulation, but will likely be a continuous
light snow/flurry event into Monday morning. Temperatures this
weekend will range from the teens and lower 20s during the day,
to single digits overnight.
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22 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

From BGM for this upcoming weekend (continuation of too much cold and dry):

Behind the departing upper low and on the back side another
Arctic blast of air will be felt across most of the Northeast
Saturday and Sunday. This incoming cold air will likely trigger
another round of lake effect snow. It is still uncertain how
much snow at this point given that the air mass may be too cold
for significant accumulation, but will likely be a continuous
light snow/flurry event into Monday morning. Temperatures this
weekend will range from the teens and lower 20s during the day,
to single digits overnight.

Of course it'll be too cold.  It usually is, except when it's too warm, even if only a 5 centimeter thick sliver of a layer somewhere up top.

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39 minutes ago, CNY_WX said:

It’s edging south. I should be in it in the next half hour as should Matt and Syrmax. 

Eh, I don't know. It's supposed to move back north. I have a feeling it's going to halt pretty soon just to troll and then go north. Then I'll have to wait for it to hopefully move south this evening and not fall apart on its way down.

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2 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Eh, I don't know. It's supposed to move back north. I have a feeling it's going to halt pretty soon just to troll and then go north. Then I'll have to wait for it to hopefully move south this evening and not fall apart on its way down.

We’ll I’m into it right now. As long as I can get a couple of hours of decent rates maybe I can add an inch or two to my totals. 

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1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Definite thaw coming next week, looks pretty toasty. Probably mid 40s for most. Doesn't last long 1-2 days max before cold sets in again. 

gfs-ens_T850a_us_39.png

 

If it can shuffle the pattern so we can actually get some freakin synoptic snowstorms in Central and Eastern NY, I say, reluctantly, fine...whatever. Bring it.

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2 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

If it can shuffle the pattern so we can actually get some freakin synoptic snowstorms in Central and Eastern NY, I say, reluctantly, fine...whatever. Bring it.

I'll take 1-2 days of 40s for more snowstorm potential as long as we don't go back to that pattern we had in December:blink:

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Just now, rochesterdave said:

That day. Lol. And The following two. If it keeps looking like this I might see if anyone wants to bail and go west instead. Couple of them have Mnt Collective Passes. 

That's some terrible luck, its still far out but EPS and GEFS both have it. It might be protected from the warmth up there. 

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6 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

That day. Lol. And The following two. If it keeps looking like this I might see if anyone wants to bail and go west instead. Couple of them have Mnt Collective Passes. 

My brother’s birthday also falls in this window and we usually try to take a few days off to snowmobile somewhere around then.  Horrible timing. 

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7 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

That's some terrible luck, its still far out but EPS and GEFS both have it. It might be protected from the warmth up there. 

Both OP models have cutters around that time period, pretty much guaranteed warmth under that scenario.. Obviously far out so it can still change but not much to look forward to as it stands now..

prateptype_cat_ecmwf.conus - 2022-01-25T101132.127.png

prateptype_cat.conus (14).png

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