BGM Blizzard Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 2 minutes ago, Syrmax said: 18Z CMC is a best case for ENY and CNY. The slp more or less stalls over or just south of LI/SNE, maybe a bit of a cyclonic loop indicated from about 108-120 hrs as cyclone rapidly deepens. There is a HP to the north, 1032 mb initially near James Bay and it doesn't exactly run away, slides a bit ENE towards NWF and actually strengthens a few mb by end of 120hrs. Dunno if it's right and didn't look at upper levels. The H500 energy is probably synced up better on this CMC run than other model runs, pulling the slp closer to coast. No idea if it's correct of course. GFS and CMC couldn't be any further apart lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 GEFS followed the Op to the outhouse this run. Probably gonna bat 0-for-30 based on mean track and precip fields. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 Steaming for the Flemish Cap 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 New map fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 16 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said: Steaming for the Flemish Cap Wow. I hope something was very off with this run. Otherwise, that’s a wrap. Ouch 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 Don't even hit new england 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 2 minutes ago, tim123 said: Don't even hit new england Was the 18z CMC a big hit for CNY? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 2 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Was the 18z CMC a big hit for CNY? It looked really nice. Even back to roc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 4 minutes ago, tim123 said: Don't even hit new england The furthest west the GFS makes it with significant snow is Rhode Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 guys, the 18z ggem on that site does not go out past 48hrs. You're looking at 12z data once past 48hrs 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brentrich Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 Cold is here to stay in next 2 weeks and no end in sight. Feb 2015 repeat? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 18z ggem that goes out to 84 hrs on meteocentre is doing same thing gfs is doing, it's burying the energy in the sw. Would most likely be an east shift if that went further out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 7 minutes ago, brentrich said: Cold is here to stay in next 2 weeks and no end in sight. Feb 2015 repeat? WHAT? looks no where near a feb 2015 pattern with that type of cold here from what I'm seeing. Does look gradient like but not the cold that february had. First big system to watch would be next thurs-sat period. That could have some ptype issues 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 57 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said: GFS and CMC couldn't be any further apart lol Yeah, one of them is very wrong. I expect we see them do some correction next model cycles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 Moderate pixie dust (new normal CNY synoptic snowfall) that will take all night to accumulate an inch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 2 minutes ago, Syrmax said: Yeah, one of them is very wrong. I expect we see them do some correction next model cycles. 18z ggem went towards the gfs with leaving that energy behind in sw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 The Rap looks like it's catching on with the HRRR for perhaps several inches of WNW lake effect tomorrow pm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 20 minutes ago, brentrich said: Cold is here to stay in next 2 weeks and no end in sight. Feb 2015 repeat? Soon blowtorch come. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 Yay. Ski trip! Un freaking believable. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 9 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Yay. Ski trip! Un freaking believable. Nah that won't happen. Ski season gonna last til August. @brentrichsaid so. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 1 minute ago, rochesterdave said: Yay. Ski trip! Un freaking believable. that time period could be ugly as the ridge out west in the wake of late week storm rolls over then area of low pressure follows behind. Euro is quite a bit different. Long way to go with that one 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 Just now, BGM Blizzard said: Nah that won't happen. @brentrichsaid so. he must of went to happy hour early with the feb 2015 analog 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 26 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: guys, the 18z ggem on that site does not go out past 48hrs. You're looking at 12z data once past 48hrs Thanks. Didn't notice or anticipate that bit ****ery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 1 minute ago, Syrmax said: Thanks. Didn't notice or anticipate that bit ****ery. on the meteocentre site it goes out to hr 84 at 18z. But thats it. Looks close to 18z gfs with leaving energy behind 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 Rgem updated. Grr..what kind of flow is that?? Mexico to Parish has had enough lake effect! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 12 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Yay. Ski trip! Un freaking believable. Looks like there's some nice cold behind it? You could go speed skiing on the ice afterwards? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 Decent rates. Hoping we can scratch 2" for plowing in the morning. I hate shoveling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Measured 2.4” new and snowing beautifully. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brentrich Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 28 minutes ago, Syrmax said: Soon blowtorch come. Short-lived warmth. 2-3 days tops then back to frigid for several weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 16 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Looks like there's some nice cold behind it? You could go speed skiing on the ice afterwards? That summarizes our last 2 ski trips to Stowe. One day of above freezing temps on soft snow, a little rain, followed by a dive below zero and the whole mountain freezing solid. Our luck when we go there has been so bad that we gave up. The long drive and the crazy expense just haven't been worth it for us. Hopefully Dave's trip will be better. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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