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Upstate/Eastern New York-Pattern Change Vs Tughill Curse?


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Another 1.8” so storm total of 14.0” on the dot. Still snowing lightly. What an awesome surprise storm here. Got about triple what was forecast. 

Average snow depth is about 19 inches here. 

Was driving all over this afternoon. No doubt just south of here a few miles in Angola on the Lake there was another 4-5” over what we had here so they’re probably close to 20”. 

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33 minutes ago, Buffalo Bumble said:

Agree. Rumors of winters’ eminent demise are highly exaggerated. 

yea I certainly don't see a winter's end pattern as of right now atleast. The one storm next Friday could be challenging as the se ridge really flexes then. But with that tpv position we are going to have cold air right by us 

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The models look the best they have in some time for us to get a couple inches from the clipper tomorrow night and then snow showers much of the week. Yet, BGM has us getting "an inch" tomorrow night and then a small chance of snow showers/partly cloudy the rest of the week. lol

So, either they see conditions just not being good, or it is the snow-stingy Sunday crew writing discussions that I have noticed the past couple months.

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27 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said:

Another 1.8” so storm total of 14.0” on the dot. Still snowing lightly. What an awesome surprise storm here. Got about triple what was forecast. 

Average snow depth is about 19 inches here. 

Was driving all over this afternoon. No doubt just south of here a few miles in Angola on the Lake there was another 4-5” over what we had here so they’re probably close to 20”. 

I posted about today 4-5 days ago as a sneaky event, but didn't think it would be this sneaky. That thing came out of no where sneaky

Peeking Around Corner GIFs | Tenor

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9 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

The models look the best they have in some time for us to get a couple inches from the clipper tomorrow night and then snow showers much of the week. Yet, BGM has us getting "an inch" tomorrow night and then a small chance of snow showers/partly cloudy the rest of the week. lol

So, either they see conditions just not being good, or it is the snow-stingy Sunday crew writing discussions that I have noticed the past couple months.

you think so? Generally looks like c-2 type stuff. With maybe southern tuggies a bit higher. 

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1 minute ago, tombo82685 said:

you think so? Generally looks like c-2 type stuff. With maybe southern tuggies a bit higher. 

Yeah, probably right. Yawn. I'm just trying to find something more exciting (wishcasting?) for this AWFUL winter. I can only hope that the Rgem is on it for Tuesday and Wednesday for WNW Lake effect snow (BGM barely mentioned it).

snku_acc.us_ne.png

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7 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Yeah, probably right. Yawn. I'm just trying to find something more exciting (wishcasting?) for this AWFUL winter. I can only hope that the Rgem is on it for Tuesday and Wednesday for WNW Lake effect snow (BGM barely mentioned it).

 

I mean outside monday PM into tues next best shot is With front this coming Friday. After that I think we wait until following week as we get more se ridge to lift disturbances further nw. 

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An area of low pressure over Michigan Monday afternoon will bring a
round of light snow to the region late Monday afternoon through
Monday night with lake effect snow showers into Tuesday-Tuesday
night.

There will be a short period of warm air advection ahead of the
approaching low Monday afternoon. Moisture will increase and as the
low moves closer to the eastern Great Lakes light, widespread snow
will move into western NY late Monday afternoon/early Monday
evening. Moisture profiles dry out quickly as the low moves across
western NY and across Lake Ontario overnight into Tuesday morning
and snow showers will quickly taper off however... a west-northwest
flow will move right back into the region and lake effect snow
showers will set-up east-southeast of the Lakes Tuesday.
Accumulation of 1-3 inches possible Monday afternoon-Monday night.
WNW winds will increase Tuesday with wind chills in the single
digits to the teens and highs in the 20s. There is increasing
confidence that a lake band forms on the backside of the departing
low and right over Oswego county Tuesday morning. This could deliver
a few inches of snow. Less favorable southeast of Lake Erie with
less moisture and winds moving around some.

Lake snows stick around Tuesday night into Wednesday as a mid-level
trough moves over the Great Lakes through the period. Another very
cold airmass will spread across the Great Lakes and into the region
Tuesday night through Wednesday night. Cold, with temperatures in
the teens across western NY and the single digits across the North
Country on Wednesday. Overnight lows Tuesday night and Wednesday
night will be near zero to the low single digits across western NY
and below zero across the North Country.
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35 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I posted about today 4-5 days ago as a sneaky event, but didn't think it would be this sneaky. That thing came out of no where sneaky

Peeking Around Corner GIFs | Tenor

Yeah strange setup for sure that none for the models really seemed to pick up well.  Band never really got going over the metro but am surprised we’ve still had a light snow constantly all day that’s put down 2” here.  Can see the sun burning through the clouds they are so thin but still producing snowfall.  Just nice having a snowpack and adding fresh onto it.  Really a near perfect winter day IMO.  

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49 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

outside of wny, would think alot of the people around syracuse into my area are running pretty bad departures snow wise. I'm about 30" below normal right now. Obviously can change very quickly 

Syracuse has been doing awful, just it has the last couple winters. Looks like today Rochester and Buffalo will add on to theirs even more, while Syracuse will add a tiny bit. Albany has had a very rough stretch as well. The East Coast synoptic storms that help add to our totals have obviously been MIA.

NYS Seasonal Snowfall

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7 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Syracuse has been doing awful, just it has the last couple winters. Looks like today Rochester and Buffalo will add on to theirs even more, while Syracuse will add a tiny bit. Albany has had a very rough stretch as well. The East Coast synoptic storms that help add to our totals have obviously been MIA.

NYS Seasonal Snowfall

Cuse is running about same departure as I am. I’m at 39.2 on season. By feb 1 should be at 76”. What makes it worse for cuse, I don’t think they even have much snow otg? We atleast have a 8-9” snow pack here 

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23 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Cuse is running about same departure as I am. I’m at 39.2 on season. By feb 1 should be at 76”. What makes it worse for cuse, I don’t think they even have much snow otg? We atleast have a 8-9” snow pack here 

It's like a 6 to 8 inch glacier you can walk on top of without falling through. 

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