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Upstate/Eastern New York-Pattern Change Vs Tughill Curse?


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20 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said:

That would be a good storm for the snow starved ENY folks. But hard to swallow for the rest of us. If it's going to miss the entire forum to the east, hopefully its OTS like the GFS. 

You guys west just got a killer storm, it's our turn in the east and central to get smoked!

That Canadian is looking real good. All the models have had runs with this storm in the last 24-48. Definitely something to watch this week.

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11 minutes ago, CoolMikeWx said:

You guys west just got a killer storm, it's our turn in the east and central to get smoked!

That Canadian is looking real good. All the models have had runs with this storm in the last 24-48. Definitely something to watch this week.

ENY is definitely due for sure. But hopefully ENY is the right goal post and not the left. We take pleasure in watching New England melt.

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12 minutes ago, Blue Moon said:

This lake effect event over performed big time! I was not expecting close to 5 inches of snow.

I think NWS did pretty good with this one..You can see a little 4"-6" zone in and around Oswego..I measured a touch over 4" at noon, probably added another 1/2" or so since.. They did pretty solid for this area..

Screenshot_20220123-130927.png

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45 minutes ago, CoolMikeWx said:

You guys west just got a killer storm, it's our turn in the east and central to get smoked!

That Canadian is looking real good. All the models have had runs with this storm in the last 24-48. Definitely something to watch this week.

It’s is, but it’s on its own where ukie,gfs, and euro all agree with each other. I just don’t know if we can back the flow enough 

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SNOWFALL REPORTS...

Location                     Amount    Time/Date       Provider

...New York...

...Chautauqua County...
1 E Silver Creek             9.5 in    0100 PM 01/23   Public

...Erie County...
1 NNE Lake Erie Beach        17.0 in   1020 AM 01/23   Public
1 WNW Colden                 11.0 in   0130 PM 01/23   Cocorahs
4 NW Eden                    10.6 in   1038 AM 01/23   Trained Spotter
2 NE Hamburg                 9.5 in    0100 PM 01/23   Trained Spotter
3 ENE Holland                8.0 in    0930 AM 01/23   Trained Spotter
Orchard Park                 8.0 in    0150 PM 01/23   Trained Spotter
East Aurora 1.0 ESE          7.5 in    1100 AM 01/23   COCORAHS
Elma Center 0.7 SE           7.0 in    0825 AM 01/23   COCORAHS
1 WNW Alden                  5.3 in    0200 PM 01/23   Trained Spotter
Buffalo Airport              1.6 in    1254 PM 01/23   Official NWS Obs
West Seneca 1.9W             1.5 in    0900 AM 01/23   COCORAHS
Williamsville 3.8 E          0.5 in    0900 AM 01/23   COCORAHS
East Amherst 1.2 WNW         0.5 in    0925 AM 01/23   COCORAHS
East Amherst 1.3 WSW         0.4 in    0900 AM 01/23   COCORAHS
Williamsville 2.2 NNW        0.3 in    0900 AM 01/23   COCORAHS
Tonawanda 1.6 E              0.1 in    0900 AM 01/23   COCORAHS

...Genesee County...
1 NW Batavia                 3.0 in    0100 PM 01/23   Trained Spotter
2 E Stafford                 2.5 in    0145 PM 01/23   Trained Spotter

...Jefferson County...
Lorraine                     14.5 in   1030 AM 01/23   Public
3 SW Natural Bridge          11.5 in   1030 AM 01/23   Trained Spotter
Adams Center                 11.5 in   0100 PM 01/23   Public
Watertown                    11.2 in   1000 AM 01/23   Trained Spotter
4 SW Barnes Corners          10.0 in   1200 PM 01/23   Trained Spotter
3 NW Adams Center            7.8 in    1000 AM 01/23   Trained Spotter

...Monroe County...
Rochester Airport            2.2 in    1254 PM 01/23   Official NWS Obs
Brockport                    0.5 in    0900 AM 01/23   COOP

...Ontario County...
Honeoye                      2.0 in    0930 AM 01/23   COOP
Canandaigua 4.6 S            0.8 in    0900 AM 01/23   COCORAHS

...Oswego County...
2 WSW Oswego                 4.3 in    1130 AM 01/23   CO-OP Observer
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19 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Just looked at the eps for longer out. Think thats a pretty sexy pattern for the north country. TPV pinned around hudson bay and you have a bit of ridging into AK and bit of trough in the west inducing some se ridge. Looks very gradient and active. 

Agree. Rumors of winters’ eminent demise are highly exaggerated. 

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4 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

fwiw, not sure anyone saw this but this is nws burlington new snowfall avg map for 30 yr avg

 

Northeast_Snow_Normal.png

 

4 hours ago, wolfie09 said:

Look at the rip-off zone near Matt:lol:

That map is bogus. Baldwinsville DEFINITELY gets more snow than Syracuse itself. We get almost the same as Clay and Cicero.

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45 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

I need @TugHillMattto come in here and tell me he got screwed to make me feel better. ALways cheers me up seeing his downfalls in snow 

Ha. Maybe 2 inches here? It was coming down pretty heavily but didn't seem to be adding up as much as I would have thought. SLR seems a bit lower than what we've had earlier this season. 

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