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Upstate/Eastern New York-Pattern Change Vs Tughill Curse?


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1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

The more I’m out here the more I realize how good these meso models are. We never use some of these back east lol.

I checked the models last night before bed and not one had 6-10" overnight across the southtowns. RGEM was the closest with a max of like 8". Here is the 0Z run, was pretty dam close to what happened.

snku_acc.us_ne.png

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2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I checked the models last night before bed and not one had 6-10" overnight across the southtowns. RGEM was the closest with a max of like 8". Here is the 0Z run, was pretty dam close to what happened.

 

Yeah, I noticed last night while looking at radar that the Ontario band settled farther south than the models projected.

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25 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Worth always has tons of snow. I still say it's the Jackpot zone for lake effect. I wish I could get a little place there.

Yea they got nailed. Meanwhile downsloping just pretty much killed it here. There has to be some sort of recipe to get that band over the tughill. Must need more of a lake enhancement to offset the downsloped dryness 

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1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

I'm so jealous of everyone in this subforum. While I'm sitting at 7.7 inches for the winter , there are several ways for the lakes to get snow but it's so hard for NYC and alot of the northeast to get snow. 

You need to move from NYC if you like snow. Either that or snow chase.

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2 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Yea they got nailed. Meanwhile downsloping just pretty much killed it here. There has to be some sort of recipe to get that band over the tughill. Must need more of a lake enhancement to offset the downsloped dryness 

I think you need some stronger winds to give it that lift/push over and beyond.

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1 minute ago, TugHillMatt said:

Yeah, except I don't think Lady Yerdon jackpotted...yet.... hopefully....

Yeah...I probably picked a run too early for the Euro to demonstrate the differences....but going back several model runs, RGEM consistently had max totals about 10-12 mi. north of apparent verification, while Euro was more or less closer to verification. 

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4 minutes ago, LakeEffectKing said:

You guys need some pretty specific conditions to cash in...drove 177 many times...going into town passed the wind farm,  snowfall rates just dry up....everytime. 

yup, its a beautiful downslope dandy. I live closer to the adirondack then the tughill so its a double insertion. I'll have to see what is needed to get lowville to cash in. Not sure this year will be a good learning point since lake effect has been pretty meh

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I think every area, outside of living on the tughill specifically has their niches. Here in lowville, it's obviously the downslope, but the synoptic snow is good and I'm protected against the warmth of the lake due to the tughill. So the retention up here is solid.  Like cuse and wolfie get lake effect much better, they are also more prone to torch. 

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Yeah the main part of the band is weakening ..We should still have a couple hours of moderate snow to go..NWS has 1"-2" with an isolated 3"(Cayuga) as it heads south..

 

Much
of the south shore of Lake Ontario (including Rochester) will see 1-
2" as the band moves south and onshore. There may be some localized
3" amounts in northeast Wayne and northern Cayuga counties before
the band weakens and breaks up as it move onshore.

WUNIDS_map - 2022-01-23T094447.908.gif

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This system will bring moisture back into the area
Monday afternoon into Monday night, bringing a widespread general
snowfall to the region. Some lake enhancement is likely east of the
lakes, but in general a 2-4 inches snowfall is expected for most
areas with slightly lesser amounts across the Finger Lakes, with
higher amounts east of the lakes could locally approach 6 inches.

Widespread snowfall then tapers to northwest flow lake convective
snow showers later Monday night and continues through Tuesday before
high pressure builds in by Tuesday night.
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