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Upstate/Eastern New York-Pattern Change Vs Tughill Curse?


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7 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

Stowe and Sugarbush. First weekend of February. The long range definitely gives me pause but we’re locked in. We chose N VT because we had a disastrous trip to Killington a few years ago (weather wise). 
I also have a trip planned to Holiday Valley for a music festival March 19-20. It’s a Grateful Dead cover band called Darkstar Orchestra. Skiing, music and drugs? Yes please! 
Where out west do you want to go? 

Was thinking Mammoth or Vail.

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52 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

GEFS went pretty far SE with that next storm, barely scraps NE. There are still a couple NW outliers.

gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_31.png

That looks perfect for a week out.

Thats the minimum distance we need it to be from the Jamestown magnet or we know how it will end up.

 

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On 1/20/2022 at 8:48 PM, mississaugasnow said:

If it can get pushed back a week or two I’d like it. Getting married end of march so an early spring is what I’m hoping for lol 

Congrats on your upcoming wedding! I'm still hoping for a February like 1934, 1967, 1979, and 2015, followed by a March like 1960 and 1984. Spring can then get off to a roaring start in April!

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5 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Also don't care about snow on the ground. Just give me 3-4" rates all day. :lol:

I'll never understand how really cold temps are even enjoyable. I almost got frostbite a few times on some of my long winter hikes. It's not fun. Skiing in really cold temps going up the lift sucks, hiking in it sucks, what is it good for? I guess frozen ponds for pond hockey would be one thing.

That's what I like the cold for. Nothing beats skating on natural ice. My local pond was 8" thick last Sunday.

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1 hour ago, DeltaT13 said:

Ugh I get the feeling the pattern breaks hard in February and we just torch like wild.  It doesn’t look good and makes sense. We will have had about 6 weeks of cold before it happens. 

There is no signs that pattern will break down in 2 weeks. So far the models are showing cross-polar flow & deeply negative temperature departures for the eastern US, most likely well into March with a delayed spring. Hot & bone dry out west most (if not all) of the time as well. Back to the ridiculously resilient ridge pattern!

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