BuffaloWeather Posted January 21, 2022 Author Share Posted January 21, 2022 9 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Thanks, but even during what used to be normal Winters, a Low that is being depicted there would give snow. It's like the area northwest of Lows is so much milder than it used to be and you have to be soooooo far Northwest to stay snow. Historically Syracuse does much better then Buffalo in synoptic storms because they are closer to the ocean and climo dictates a low along the ocean taking over 90% of the time and "robbing" the primary of moisture. This is a very weird year. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolMikeWx Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 21 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: When we can't get Lows that go over SE NY and the Hudson valley to produce SNOW here....we are SCREWED. Absolutely ridiculous... it's harder to get a legit snowstorm here than it is the South these days. Lol You should come live in the Hudson Valley and then you can see the battle we have with that stupid rain/snow line when those LPs run to close inland... Some of these fantasy storms coming up the coast are bonkers.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 1 minute ago, CoolMikeWx said: You should come live in the Hudson Valley and then you can see the battle we have with that stupid rain/snow line when those LPs run to close inland... Some of these fantasy storms coming up the coast are bonkers.. No, thanks. I grew up in Lancaster, PA so I am already way too familiar with the awful rain/mix/snow line. It seems to have followed me hundreds of miles to the north. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 Watch up for Jefferson county.. ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow possible. Total snow accumulations in excess of 9 inches possible. * WHERE...Jefferson county. * WHEN...From Saturday evening into Sunday afternoon. * IMPACTS...Travel could become very difficult. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 21, 2022 Author Share Posted January 21, 2022 A cold southwest flow ahead of the front Saturday evening will then set up plumes of lake snow northeast of both lakes. While the cap will initially be in the vcnty of 5kft...it is forecast to rise to between 7 and 10 kft (higher off Lk Ont) by daybreak Sunday. This will include a 4kft deep DGZ...which in a cold airmass will allow for efficient snow making and subsequent accumulations. The les band off Lk Erie should be transitory enough (240 flow at 00z and 280 flow at 12z Sun) to prevent significant snow accumulations Sat night...although can see 4-6" amounts in the vcnty of the BUF Southtowns southward along the Chautauqua ridge with 0.5 to 1 inch rates for a time. Winter weather advisories will likely be needed for these areas as we near the event. Off Lk Ontario...a disorganized band in a 230 flow will initially become established over the northern portion of Jefferson county (north of ART). The band should then settle to just south of Watertown where a 240-250 steering flow will persist for much of the second half of the night into Sunday morning. With 1 inch rates expected...snow accums could exceed 7 inches by daybreak Sunday. Have thus issued a winter storm watch for lake effect snow in this package for Jefferson county only. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 21, 2022 Author Share Posted January 21, 2022 Rates will be stronger than .5-1" per across Buf south with that band, can almost guarantee it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 21, 2022 Author Share Posted January 21, 2022 Looks pretty good for WNY. Another 6-10" across most of the area by middle of week. Light snow will move into western NY by Monday afternoon and spread east across the region Monday night. A widespread few inches of snow is possible across most of the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 Lake Effect snow really is a wild thing. It's been snowing pretty good for almost 7 hours straight and I don't think it has even accumulated more than a quarter inch (if that). It's like magic movie snow. Strange. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 21, 2022 Author Share Posted January 21, 2022 Just now, DeltaT13 said: Lake Effect snow really is a wild thing. It's been snowing pretty good for almost 7 hours straight and I don't think it has even accumulated more than a quarter inch (if that). It's like magic movie snow. Strange. Did you see the Ocean effect today south of Boston. What a band over 6" I think 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 21, 2022 Author Share Posted January 21, 2022 NWS just raised totals again Saturday Night Snow showers likely before 11pm, then snow between 11pm and 4am, then snow showers likely after 4am. Low around 19. Southwest wind 13 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible. Sunday Snow showers likely, mainly before 7am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 22. West wind 8 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 12 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Did you see the Ocean effect today south of Boston. What a band over 6" I think Very cool! I missed that but yeah, 3-7" of snow right along the coast of MA south of Beantown. They have WWA up. Hell that would be more LES than we get around here lately. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 40 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Rates will be stronger than .5-1" per across Buf south with that band, can almost guarantee it. Isn’t 240 exactly where the event that hammered Williamsville south to Lancaster last time? Maybe the lack of residence time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 21, 2022 Author Share Posted January 21, 2022 2 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: Isn’t 240 exactly where the event that hammered Williamsville south to Lancaster last time? Maybe the lack of residence time? Yes but it stays 250-265 for the longest time period. It kind of stalls over southern Erie county. At least on the RGEM it does. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 21, 2022 Author Share Posted January 21, 2022 9 minutes ago, Syrmax said: Very cool! I missed that but yeah, 3-7" of snow right along the coast of MA south of Beantown. They have WWA up. Hell that would be more LES than we get around here lately. Can you imagine if we had an ocean to our west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 21, 2022 Author Share Posted January 21, 2022 ...Bitterly cold temperatures expected again tonight... Temperatures will fall to 0 to 25 below zero tonight. While winds will be light, wind chills of 10 to 35 below zero will be possible. The cold wind chills could result in frostbite to exposed skin and/or hypothermia if precautions are not taken. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 21, 2022 Author Share Posted January 21, 2022 HPC shows it well, WSW flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 BGM's latest discussion seems more boring for snow than the Euro does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 Perhaps we can get in on that band Sunday. 3 to 6 inches across the North burbs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 18 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Can you imagine if we had an ocean to our west. Yeah, we'd be Seattle....LOL 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 21, 2022 Author Share Posted January 21, 2022 6 minutes ago, Syrmax said: Yeah, we'd be Seattle....LOL Alright, a slightly larger Lake Superior. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 10 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Pretty easy to see they are riding the RGEM as usual..Not exact but pretty darn close lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 40 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Can you imagine if we had an ocean to our west. I just wish Erie was as deep or deeper then Ontario... that would be a massive game changer. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 48 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Yes but it stays 250-265 for the longest time period. It kind of stalls over southern Erie county. At least on the RGEM it does. And IIRC the RGEM was excellent with the last lake effect event. Hoping you guys in the southtowns get a good hit. And if we do receive another 6-10” in much of WNY through the end of the week the snowpack will be the deepest area wide in some time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 21, 2022 Author Share Posted January 21, 2022 5 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: I just wish Erie was as deep or deeper then Ontario... that would be a massive game changer. Yeah we would definitely average quite a bit more even though the airport is so far north. If you look at averages through January we are ahead of most spots until the lake freezes. But last year we had a 30-40" LES event with a 80% covered lake, so anything can happen still! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 Scott Hetsko posted a nice visible loop today showing a really solid meso low on the Monroe county shoreline! As usual not sure if the video will work for all. (nope, didnt work, but if you have facebook he has a loop on his page!) IMG_3018.MOV 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 It works! Just slow to load. I’ll be curious to see if my house got much. HRd to tell from RING Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 6 hours ago, Thinksnow18 said: The southtowns crew did not get the 90% of the synoptic, the northtowns were over 20” in most cases and almost 2 feet in parts of Niagara county. Might have your storms confused? Sorry, I was comparing 18” in Kenmore/N Buffalo to my in laws in West Seneca, which was 15”. But the LES storm totals were significantly lower in WS. in any case, while some of the Buffalo metro is still a few inches above mean snowfall to date, it has been uneven. I wouldn’t call this a good winter for the Southtowns. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 Reports of 4-5” near Charlotte with that MESO. Someone mentioned it was meso low weather recently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 Jefferson co and the tughill better stop stealing my snow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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