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Upstate/Eastern New York-Pattern Change Vs Tughill Curse?


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9 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Thanks, but even during what used to be normal Winters, a Low that is being depicted there would give snow. It's like the area northwest of Lows is so much milder than it used to be and you have to be soooooo far Northwest to stay snow.

Historically Syracuse does much better then Buffalo in synoptic storms because they are closer to the ocean and climo dictates a low along the ocean taking over 90% of the time and "robbing" the primary of moisture. This is a very weird year. 

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21 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

When we can't get Lows that go over SE NY and the Hudson valley to produce SNOW here....we are SCREWED. Absolutely ridiculous... it's harder to get a legit snowstorm here than it is the South these days. Lol

You should come live in the Hudson Valley and then you can see the battle we have with that stupid rain/snow line when those LPs run to close inland...


Some of these fantasy storms coming up the coast are bonkers..

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1 minute ago, CoolMikeWx said:

You should come live in the Hudson Valley and then you can see the battle we have with that stupid rain/snow line when those LPs run to close inland...


Some of these fantasy storms coming up the coast are bonkers..

No, thanks. I grew up in Lancaster, PA so I am already way too familiar with the awful rain/mix/snow line. It seems to have followed me hundreds of miles to the north.

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Watch up for Jefferson county..

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow possible. Total snow
  accumulations in excess of 9 inches possible.

* WHERE...Jefferson county.

* WHEN...From Saturday evening into Sunday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Travel could become very difficult.
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A cold southwest flow ahead of the front Saturday evening will then
set up plumes of lake snow northeast of both lakes. While the cap
will initially be in the vcnty of 5kft...it is forecast to rise to
between 7 and 10 kft (higher off Lk Ont) by daybreak Sunday. This
will include a 4kft deep DGZ...which in a cold airmass will allow
for efficient snow making and subsequent accumulations. The les band
off Lk Erie should be transitory enough (240 flow at 00z and 280
flow at 12z Sun) to prevent significant snow accumulations Sat
night...although can see 4-6" amounts in the vcnty of the BUF
Southtowns southward along the Chautauqua ridge with 0.5 to 1 inch
rates for a time. Winter weather advisories will likely be needed
for these areas as we near the event.

Off Lk Ontario...a disorganized band in a 230 flow will initially
become established over the northern portion of Jefferson county
(north of ART). The band should then settle to just south of
Watertown where a 240-250 steering flow will persist for much of the
second half of the night into Sunday morning. With 1 inch rates
expected...snow accums could exceed 7 inches by daybreak Sunday.
Have thus issued a winter storm watch for lake effect snow in this
package for Jefferson county only.
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Just now, DeltaT13 said:

Lake Effect snow really is a wild thing.  It's been snowing pretty good for almost 7 hours straight and I don't think it has even accumulated more than a quarter inch (if that).  It's like magic movie snow.  Strange.  

Did you see the Ocean effect today south of Boston. What a band over 6" I think

Jan21_305pmRadar.gif

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NWS just raised totals again

Saturday Night
Snow showers likely before 11pm, then snow between 11pm and 4am, then snow showers likely after 4am. Low around 19. Southwest wind 13 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible.
Sunday
Snow showers likely, mainly before 7am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 22. West wind 8 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.
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12 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Did you see the Ocean effect today south of Boston. What a band over 6" I think

Jan21_305pmRadar.gif

Very cool!  I missed that but yeah, 3-7" of snow right along the coast of MA south of Beantown.  They have WWA up.  Hell that would be more LES than we get around here lately.  

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48 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Yes but it stays 250-265 for the longest time period. It kind of stalls over southern Erie county. At least on the RGEM it does. 

And IIRC the RGEM was excellent with the last lake effect event. Hoping you guys in the southtowns get a good hit. And if we do receive another 6-10” in much of WNY through the end of the week the snowpack will be the deepest area wide in some time.

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5 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

I just wish Erie was as deep or deeper then Ontario... that would be a massive game changer.

Yeah we would definitely average quite a bit more even though the airport is so far north. If you look at averages through January we are ahead of most spots until the lake freezes. But last year we had a 30-40" LES event with a 80% covered lake, so anything can happen still!

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6 hours ago, Thinksnow18 said:

The southtowns crew did not get the 90% of the synoptic, the northtowns were over 20” in most cases and almost 2 feet in parts of Niagara county. Might have your storms confused?

Sorry, I was comparing 18” in Kenmore/N Buffalo to my in laws in West Seneca, which was 15”. But the LES storm totals were significantly lower in WS.

in any case, while some of the Buffalo metro is still a few inches above mean snowfall to date, it has been uneven. I wouldn’t call this a good winter for the Southtowns.

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