tombo82685 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 sleet mixing in here now. 32 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 White rain going on 3 hours here in Rochester. VERY stubborn. It just waxes and wanes. Chinese water torture comes to mind. Lol 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 18z EPS for D5-6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Changed over to more snow vs rain here as of 10 pm. Big wet flakes starting to stick on a few surfaces. See what the night brings I guess! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Back to more sleet than snow. Temp at 32 degrees. Gonna be a long night of flip flopping here I think. I think 10 miles north of me does well but BuffaloWeather and I are right on the cutoff. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 So while we are staring at thermometers waiting for the pot to boil, so to to speak, I observed this. Again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Gfs. Consistent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 2, 2022 Author Share Posted January 2, 2022 Big flakes here since around 10 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Happy for you guys in the Northern Gen. Valley and Niagara Frontier. I wasn't paying too close to here, but was a bit surprised to see it's down to 35 and a bit of a mix occurring. I've seen a few very occasional snowflakes mixing in once in a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 3 minutes ago, Syrmax said: So while we are staring at thermometers waiting for the pot to boil, so to to speak, I observed this. Again. Yeah, their thermometer is off, as I've been saying for months. I mean, so many months of being the "warmest above average" compared to all the other cities... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 3 minutes ago, tim123 said: Gfs. Consistent @CNY_WX screw hole? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Big flakes here since around 10 Rain snow line temporarily moved north but looks to be permanently steadily marching back to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 How long does the nws ignore what gfs is showing in NC and VA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Yeah, their thermometer is off, as I've been saying for months. I mean, so many months of being the "warmest above average" compared to all the other cities... At some point, you would think they might attempt to figure out what's going on, esp since are using that data to make statements about record warmth. Same out in Buffalo. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Just now, tim123 said: How long does the nws ignore what gfs is showing in NC and VA. I was surprised at the AFDs basically blowing off the GFS without a whole lot of reservation. They've been basking in record high temps in the 70s down there so maybe that's a factor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, Syrmax said: At some point, you would think they might attempt to figure out what's going on, esp since are using that data to make statements about record warmth. Same out in Buffalo. I honestly think they tinker with data and instruments to fit a narrative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 I know this means nothing to anyone here, but damn VA might be a disaster waiting to happen. A lot of big numbers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, Syrmax said: I was surprised at the AFDs basically blowing off the GFS without a whole lot of reservation. They've been basking in record high temps in the 70s down there so maybe that's a factor. But now it's most guidance... might have egg on their face. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Alot of this may be sleet. But still Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Just now, Ericjcrash said: But now it's most guidance... might have egg on their face. Blacksburg's AFD does discuss it more than the last one I read out of Sterlin VA, but I think they are figuring warm sfc temps will limit accumulations and the timing of changeover is tricky, etc etc. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Snow in roc now temp 33 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 1 minute ago, Syrmax said: Blacksburg's AFD does discuss it more than the last one I read out of Sterlin VA, but I think they are figuring warm sfc temps will limit accumulations and the timing of changeover is tricky, etc etc. If it can accumulate in NYC during the day in Oct, those ridiculous rates will cause problems. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 6 minutes ago, tim123 said: I honestly think they tinker with data and instruments to fit a narrative. It's strange...because Albany and Rochester's have actually had issues on the other end with being too cold. So I'm not sure about that? As we all know (because of yours truly...lol), the Syracuse thermometer has been HOT HOT the past two years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Just now, Ericjcrash said: If it can accumulate in NYC during the day in Oct, those ridiculous rates will cause problems. GFS probably overdone but a plowable snowfall looking pretty likely across that area. DCA might have more snow than Albany and bunch of other MA and NE sites after Monday. We need to cash in on the D5-6 event, that's all I can say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: If it can accumulate in NYC during the day in Oct, those ridiculous rates will cause problems. Yeah, the snowfalls we've had here this year have come a day or two after temps in the 50 to 70 degree range and have accumulated ok. They definitely melt much faster afterwards though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said: GFS probably overdone but a plowable snowfall looking pretty likely across that area. DCA might have more snow than Albany and bunch of other MA and NE sites after Monday. We need to cash in on the D5-6 event, that's all I can say. Day 5 6 is gone on icon and gfs 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 3 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said: GFS probably overdone but a plowable snowfall looking pretty likely across that area. DCA might have more snow than Albany and bunch of other MA and NE sites after Monday. We need to cash in on the D5-6 event, that's all I can say. Probably a VA special too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, tim123 said: Day 5 6 is gone on icon and gfs Way south east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Gfs is weather porn for you buffalo guys for lake snow later next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 2, 2022 Author Share Posted January 2, 2022 30 hours with a strong LES band over BUF on GFS. Classic SW flow event. The first I've seen in awhile with a SW flow for that long. This has potential to be the one @WNash 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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