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Upstate/Eastern New York-Pattern Change Vs Tughill Curse?


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2 hours ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

...Accumulating lake snows possible Saturday night northeast and east of both lakes... A clipper low and its associated cold front will near the region late Saturday afternoon and evening. The cold front will then quickly work from west to east across the area Saturday night. Lake snows will then develop off both lakes as colder air rushes in behind the front with 850 hPa dropping off to -14C/-15C. BUFKIT profiles show equilibrium levels will briefly rise to 8K feet with enough moisture extending through the DGZ. That said, the concern will be residence time over any given location. Guidance (Canadian- NH/RGEM) suggests that the Lake Erie band will waffle around a bit before settling well to the south across far S. Erie and Chautauqua Co. on Sunday Off Lake Ontario, a fairly decent band is advertised to form which then slowly drops south across Jefferson, Lewis, and then Oswego Co Saturday night into Sunday. Considering that liquid water/snow rations will approach 20:1 or even higher advisory level snows seem easily obtainable. Cant`even rule out low end warning amounts despite the short residence time of the bands off both lakes. Right now, it still looks like Lake Ontario will have the best shot at producing warning snowfall. Off Erie, lighter amounts are anticipated due to the advertised band waffling around before it moves south. Will mention the lake effect snow potential in the HWO for now.
 

mmmmm Waffles…

85C5C96A-0597-4BDF-B4B9-68507B07C121.gif

Yeah RGEM looks pretty good for just south of Buffalo. It wavers the band a little and stalls it out for awhile compared to previous runs. 

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18 minutes ago, WNash said:

The southtowns crew got 90% of the synoptic, but lost out on the LES a couple weeks ago. I hope this one overperforms in Hamburg/OP.

The southtowns crew did not get the 90% of the synoptic, the northtowns were over 20” in most cases and almost 2 feet in parts of Niagara county. Might have your storms confused?

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4 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

The southtowns crew did not get the 90% of the synoptic, the northtowns were over 20” in most cases and almost 2 feet in parts of Niagara county. Might have your storms confused?

I measured 16.2" here, most of the southtowns got 14-18". We also had that surprise event back in December with 6-9" of LES. The last LES event was a pretty big bust here as winds were too strong, had a little over 4" in that one. Hasn't been great, but not terrible. 

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28 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

That's close to lake effect snow warning for me and @lakeeffectkid383

snku_acc.us_ne.png

Still holding out for the stall to kick in a few more ticks north.  Slowly trending a slight bit more north with the bullseye but we shall see.  Even if we only end up with 2-3” as it sinks southward it should be a nice quick hitter to freshen up the snow pack!

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