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Upstate/Eastern New York-Pattern Change Vs Tughill Curse?


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Mood snows throughout the day here, with a light snow falling right now. I'd say between half an inch and an inch has fallen throughout the duration of the day. Might be more like a collection of 10 dustings? :P 

Looking at the 18Z GFS, I just can't believe with all this cold air we still have lows going to our north and swooping up mild air.

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Just now, TugHillMatt said:

Mood snows throughout the day here, with a light snow falling right now. I'd say between half an inch and an inch has fallen throughout the duration of the day. Might be more like a collection of 10 dustings? :P 

Looking at the 18Z GFS, I just can't believe with all this cold air we still have lows going to our north and swooping up mild air.

I'd say here in Cicero, a trace all day, if that.

 

In the last few moments somewhat better mood flakes

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Just now, sferic said:

I'd say here in Cicero, a trace all day, if that.

 

In the last few moments somewhat better mood flakes

We had a really nice burst come through this morning that dropped about a half inch in about 20 minutes and then the rest of the day was pixie dust showers and flurries mixed with sunshine.

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1 minute ago, CNY_WX said:

St. Catherine’s, Ontario is reporting a visibility of 1 1/2 miles so nothing really heavy. 

I didn't say anything heavy. I just said nice (which is vague and can be interpreted differently). I've noticed you almost having a "corrective" tone in your replies to me (a temperature different of a degree, or a different dewpoint reading at SYR.) Any particular reason, or are you too just reporting observations?

I would say there is a nice snowfall falling here actually. :) Pretty, sparkly flakes with a new fresh covering since an hour ago.

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1 hour ago, TugHillMatt said:

I didn't say anything heavy. I just said nice (which is vague and can be interpreted differently). I've noticed you almost having a "corrective" tone in your replies to me (a temperature different of a degree, or a different dewpoint reading at SYR.) Any particular reason, or are you too just reporting observations?

I would say there is a nice snowfall falling here actually. :) Pretty, sparkly flakes with a new fresh covering since an hour ago.

It’s not my intention to be “corrective “ but to add some quantitative observations to the commentary. 

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33 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Full blown mid winter on that cam right there. This cold stuff is for the birds.

Yes, it is a very wintry shot. I love that webcam. I've never been to that community, but the webcam definitely showcases what looks like a small town atmosphere. I've enjoyed checking it out and seeing the scene there when there are events going on.

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...Accumulating lake snows possible Saturday night northeast and east of both lakes... A clipper low and its associated cold front will near the region late Saturday afternoon and evening. The cold front will then quickly work from west to east across the area Saturday night. Lake snows will then develop off both lakes as colder air rushes in behind the front with 850 hPa dropping off to -14C/-15C. BUFKIT profiles show equilibrium levels will briefly rise to 8K feet with enough moisture extending through the DGZ. That said, the concern will be residence time over any given location. Guidance (Canadian- NH/RGEM) suggests that the Lake Erie band will waffle around a bit before settling well to the south across far S. Erie and Chautauqua Co. on Sunday Off Lake Ontario, a fairly decent band is advertised to form which then slowly drops south across Jefferson, Lewis, and then Oswego Co Saturday night into Sunday. Considering that liquid water/snow rations will approach 20:1 or even higher advisory level snows seem easily obtainable. Cant`even rule out low end warning amounts despite the short residence time of the bands off both lakes. Right now, it still looks like Lake Ontario will have the best shot at producing warning snowfall. Off Erie, lighter amounts are anticipated due to the advertised band waffling around before it moves south. Will mention the lake effect snow potential in the HWO for now.
 

mmmmm Waffles…

85C5C96A-0597-4BDF-B4B9-68507B07C121.gif

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