TugHillMatt Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 6 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Rgem starting to get in range..Has a solid event for the Watertown area verbatim.. Quick hitter but solid..Band is still slowly pushing south.. I like that it shows a variety of wind directions for almost all to cash in a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Well that sucks. I keep telling you guys it’s a horrible model 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 GFS for D5.. It's all downhill from here lol (obviously not all from this clipper) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Kbgm doesn't seem to impressed with the lake effect potential on Sunday.. Though there will be very limited moisture to work with, the new cold front may manage to pick up enough Great Lakes moisture for a brief spate of dry fluffy snow showers on Sunday for Central New York, perhaps with some scattered lake effect snow showers/flurries extending into the Twin Tiers for Sunday night. Given high snow-to-liquid ratios, light dustings to an inch or so of fluffy snow accumulations could easily occur. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Can we please just have a low that doesn't hump Lake Erie and Lake Ontario? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 20, 2022 Author Share Posted January 20, 2022 KBUF has reported at least a trace of snow everyday this month with measurable snow on 14 of 19 days. https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=buf 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Yay, Me! 1st place again. May have got screwed on snowfall but won the storm snowfall prediction contest....NE.WX Snowfall Contest. Snowfall forecasting contests for 27 stations across New England and the Mid-Atlantic regions ... since 1999. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 General consensus of the models is the clipper track continues to our north and anything to our south remains suppressed. We continue to rely on the lakes to provide some snow in some variety. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 9 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: General consensus of the models is the clipper track continues to our north and anything to our south remains suppressed. We continue to rely on the lakes to provide some snow in some variety. Boring, but better than nothing. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 End of the GFS run has the ugly mug of the SER returning... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Just give me a fresh inch in Northern Onondaga in the next 36-48 and I'll accept that, anything but nothing We're in a lull, sure but things can change big time as we are only through the first third of winter 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 2 hours ago, TugHillMatt said: Can we please just have a low that doesn't hump Lake Erie and Lake Ontario? Jamestown! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Those clippers can bring us great snow or nothing depending on 100 miles north or south. This definitely looks north. Of course it’s different for Buf and Watertown. Might be a goood track for them if it stays cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Who knows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 D9 GFS has a ridiculous all time KU blizzard for 95 95x mb up the the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 There`s an increasing potential for lake effect snow Saturday night into Sunday. A shortwave and an elongated surface trough extending southward from a clipper low will move across the area late Saturday night. Although synoptic moisture will be limited, it should be ample to enhance a lake response. With 850mb temperatures around - 15c there will be enough lake induced instability and the trough will raise inversion heights to about 8k which will be able to support lift in a favorable dendritic snow growth zone. This is reflected in latest model guidance, particularly the RGEM which shows a band developing northeast of the lakes late Saturday night, then dropping southward and settling east of the lakes during Sunday. Then on Sunday night, lake snows will diminish in intensity while settling southeast of the lakes due to northwesterly winds. It appears the most impressive snow amounts will be off Lake Ontario due to upstream moisture it will get from Lake Erie. Advisory amounts (3-6 inches) are likely in Jefferson county, and considering liquid water/snow ratios are likely to reach 20:1 even warning amounts greater than 7 inches cannot be ruled out. Doesn`t look quite as impressive off Lake Erie, but still could see advisory amounts Erie, Chautauqua, and Cattaraugus counties. For the Buffalo metro area, steadiest snow would likely would come when the band drops from north to south during Saturday night. Areas not impacted by lake effect still could get some general snow showers as the trough moves through Sunday with brief bursts of snow resulting in light accumulation. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 23 minutes ago, sferic said: Just give me a fresh inch in Northern Onondaga in the next 36-48 and I'll accept that, anything but nothing We're in a lull, sure but things can change big time as we are only through the first third of winter Fresh positivity. We were saying the bolded above back in December 2019, and yet here we are... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 51 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said: End of the GFS run has the ugly mug of the SER returning... Thats coming, as the pacific pattern shifts to December type look with the low north of japan which downstream supports Aleutian ridge and -pna. As long as the -pna isn't on roids hopefully it gives chances. This is deeper into winter so wavelengths are longer so we may see a different response. But I'm banking on some sort of gradient setting up. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Syracuse Snow weenies...hopefully, perhaps? The lake snow will initially be oriented parallel to Lake Ontario and impact mainly areas along and north of the I-90 Thruway during the day Sunday. Could see a couple inches of snow into the southern Tug Hill and as far south as Syracuse by sunset Sunday. and, then... whoop, there it is (get ready for 40 and showers on Tuesday): A weak warm front out ahead of the system will lift north early Tuesday and produce an area of snow showers. The surface low slides to the east on Tuesday across nrn NY and a nose of somewhat warmer air is able to push north across PA into central NY. This will allow temperatures to climb into the upper 20s to mid 30s. Some of the snow will mix with or change to rain for a brief period of time late Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 9 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Fresh positivity. We were saying the bolded above back in December 2019, and yet here we are... We've had a few snowshowers today. From an LI perspective, that's a plus. Rarely get that kind of wintery action between synoptic systems along the coast. The mood snow definately helps... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 20, 2022 Author Share Posted January 20, 2022 Lets have a record wintry February and then March 2012 so I can open my pool early and float around sippin on my trulys. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 20, 2022 Author Share Posted January 20, 2022 Looks like the weeklies are a super torch for February. They haven't been that great, so lets hope they are wrong. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 5 minutes ago, Syrmax said: We've had a few snowshowers today. From an LI perspective, that's a plus. Rarely get that kind of wintery action between synoptic systems along the coast. The mood snow definately helps... Truth! It sure does! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 How many runs b4 this 958 mb low is over Jonestown NY? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 5 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Looks like the weeklies are a super torch for February. They haven't been that great, so lets hope they are wrong. There are a few signals that are pointing towards a warm February 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 We have had "mood" flakes for most of the afternoon, now it has become borderline"light* lol Radar picking up a little moisture off Mexico bay, down to 7° with another cold night on tap.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geez150 Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 2 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: Looks like the weeklies are a super torch for February. They haven't been that great, so lets hope they are wrong. Well I guess it's been a good-ish run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolMikeWx Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Truth! It sure does!Holy Jesus if this hit us Hudson Valley would get obliterated.. That blue is so dark Sent from my SM-G988U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 12 minutes ago, CoolMikeWx said: Holy Jesus if this hit us Hudson Valley would get obliterated.. That blue is so dark Sent from my SM-G988U using Tapatalk Don’t worry it’s gone on the 18Z run. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Meso low weather. One moving ashore near IAG. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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