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Upstate/Eastern New York-Pattern Change Vs Tughill Curse?


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Kbgm doesn't seem to impressed with the lake effect potential on Sunday..

Though there will be very limited moisture to work with, the new
cold front may manage to pick up enough Great Lakes moisture for
a brief spate of dry fluffy snow showers on Sunday for Central
New York, perhaps with some scattered lake effect snow
showers/flurries extending into the Twin Tiers for Sunday
night. Given high snow-to-liquid ratios, light dustings to an
inch or so of fluffy snow accumulations could easily occur.
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9 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

General consensus of the models is the clipper track continues to our north and anything to our south remains suppressed. We continue to rely on the lakes to provide some snow in some variety.

sn10_acc.us_ne.png

Boring, but better than nothing.

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There`s an increasing potential for lake effect snow Saturday night
into Sunday. A shortwave and an elongated surface trough extending
southward from a clipper low will move across the area late Saturday
night. Although synoptic moisture will be limited, it should be
ample to enhance a lake response. With 850mb temperatures around -
15c there will be enough lake induced instability and the trough
will raise inversion heights to about 8k which will be able to
support lift in a favorable dendritic snow growth zone.

This is reflected in latest model guidance, particularly the RGEM
which shows a band developing northeast of the lakes late Saturday
night, then dropping southward and settling east of the lakes during
Sunday. Then on Sunday night, lake snows will diminish in intensity
while settling southeast of the lakes due to northwesterly winds.

It appears the most impressive snow amounts will be off Lake Ontario
due to upstream moisture it will get from Lake Erie. Advisory
amounts (3-6 inches) are likely in Jefferson county, and considering
liquid water/snow ratios are likely to reach 20:1 even warning
amounts greater than 7 inches cannot be ruled out. Doesn`t look
quite as impressive off Lake Erie, but still could see advisory
amounts Erie, Chautauqua, and Cattaraugus counties. For the Buffalo
metro area, steadiest snow would likely would come when the band
drops from north to south during Saturday night. Areas not impacted
by lake effect still could get some general snow showers as the
trough moves through Sunday with brief bursts of snow resulting in
light accumulation.
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23 minutes ago, sferic said:

Just give me a fresh inch in Northern Onondaga in the next 36-48 and I'll accept that, anything but nothing

We're in a lull, sure but things can change big time as we are only through the first third of winter

Fresh positivity. We were saying the bolded above back in December 2019, and yet here we are... :lol:

 

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51 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said:

End of the GFS run has the ugly mug of the SER returning...

 

Thats coming, as the pacific pattern shifts to December type look with the low north of japan which downstream supports Aleutian ridge and -pna. As long as the -pna isn't on roids hopefully it gives chances. This is deeper into winter so wavelengths are longer so we may see a different response. But I'm banking on some sort of gradient setting up. 

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Syracuse Snow weenies...hopefully, perhaps?

The
lake snow will initially be oriented parallel to Lake Ontario
and impact mainly areas along and north of the I-90 Thruway
during the day Sunday. Could see a couple inches of snow into
the southern Tug Hill and as far south as Syracuse by sunset
Sunday.

 

and, then... whoop, there it is (get ready for 40 and showers on Tuesday):

 

A weak warm front out ahead of the system will lift
north early Tuesday and produce an area of snow showers. The
surface low slides to the east on Tuesday across nrn NY and a
nose of somewhat warmer air is able to push north across PA into
central NY. This will allow temperatures to climb into the
upper 20s to mid 30s. Some of the snow will mix with or change
to rain for a brief period of time late Tuesday. 
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9 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Fresh positivity. We were saying the bolded above back in December 2019, and yet here we are... :lol:

 

We've had a few snowshowers today. From an LI perspective, that's a plus. Rarely get that kind of wintery action between synoptic systems along the coast. The mood snow definately helps...

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