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Upstate/Eastern New York-Pattern Change Vs Tughill Curse?


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Things def will be pick up in terms of precip events once we get close to february as the whole pattern shifts back towards the more canonical nina look. Can see the shift in the pacific start in about 7 days or so. This should allow for a -pna development and more se ridging to form. How strong the pna gets will determine if we benefit or not. The SPV looks to go on roids heading into February and that can also argue against cold air coming south of it couples with troposphere.  Main MJO forcing still looks conducive for cold through end of month then it becomes a bit iffier if we see propagation into western IO or not. 

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Thanks, Wolfie. You can see, as a result, they both keep the banding over Lake Ontario/your location while bringing the dry slot (and rain...see the little specks of green around the glorious Sizzlecuse on the GFS...lol). It's like the never-ending new norm.

A day of cold...a bit of lake effect...24 hours later a warm "clipper" that dirties and melts the snow as temps hit 40s.

I know many snowmobilers who have just given up riding and selling their sleds because they say it's not worth it with how often conditions are trashed.

Next week looks to offer some better chances...but I have also said that before during this winter as well. Lol

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The Canadian and Ukie offer several shots throughout the period. I was surprised to see the Ukie picking up on chances for decent lake snows early next week. It doesn't often show lake snows much.

As far as tonight, I am a bit skeptical of getting much lake effect here. Just doesn't look like much to work with. I would love to be pleasantly surprised upon waking up though... :)

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7 hours ago, TugHillMatt said:

The Canadian and Ukie offer several shots throughout the period. I was surprised to see the Ukie picking up on chances for decent lake snows early next week. It doesn't often show lake snows much.

As far as tonight, I am a bit skeptical of getting much lake effect here. Just doesn't look like much to work with. I would love to be pleasantly surprised upon waking up though... :)

You were right to be skeptical. Other than the burst of SN we just had, not much overnight...now we freeze...

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Woke up this morning and forgot we were scheduled to get a dusting to an inch or two thanks to the storm moving by south of us.

Left my house in Middletown and it was coming down light but as I got closer to my warehouse in Florida it was really coming down nicely. Can't ask for much more on a weekday down here with no storms right now. 32-34f observed and so far a dusting in 45 minutes. Looks nice and feels good that's for sure. f16e7f9e63bdff1e8f222b96aaf85229.jpg00217a6fef405336c8729f568bfb1a16.jpgea52cb5c8b05d208b36d72114df9380c.jpg

Sent from my SM-G988U using Tapatalk

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16 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

You were right to be skeptical. Other than the burst of SN we just had, not much overnight...now we freeze...

Yup, had a dusting last night and this nice burst of snow this morning. Maaaaybe we'll squeak out an inch.

I have become very leery of much snow when hearing or reading "NW winds." 

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21 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Yup, had a dusting last night and this nice burst of snow this morning. Maaaaybe we'll squeak out an inch.

I have become very leery of much snow when hearing or reading "NW winds." 

No inch here. Another "heavy dusting", about 1/4"...#352 for the season.  This is the business we've chosen. :lmao:

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15 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

That arctic front should be pretty strong on Sunday. I'd expect a pretty strong Lake enhanced band to drift from north to south. Even low res GFS is showing it, something to watch.

rgem_mslp_pcpn_neus_84.png

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_15.png

I’m calling you the great Kreskin of snow predictions. The NWS text this am repeats exactly what you stated regarding the “sneaky” LES opportunity for Saturday night Sunday morning for Buffalo. 

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33 minutes ago, cny rider said:

Nice!  I know exactly where that sign is.  My wife and I did that as a summer hike a couple of years ago.  Honestly can't imagine being out there on a deep winter day.

Its a different world up there in the winter. I've done 6 winter high peaks so far, hoping to do another 1-2 this year. 

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KBGM AFD Snip...

Friday night is starting to show the hallmarks of an extremely cold night under Arctic high pressure. Though model guidance is already quite low for minimum temperatures, this is a situation in which guidance typically struggles to keep up. The atmospheric column will be extremely dry, to the point that model precipitable water value values are just three to six hundredths of an inch; it simply just does not ever get lower than that around here. This along with snow on the ground should promote ideal radiational cooling, and there is concern that the bottom could really fall out for temperatures. Our forecast has large majority of the area reaching well below zero; in many cases by double digits. This already skews below most guidance, but it should be noted that there is at least a chance for some locations to hit 20 below. 

The biggest point of uncertainty, is whether a system shooting well offshore the Midatlantic Coast, could manage to yield a thin veil of high cirrus towards the Poconos-Catskills along with a strong upper jet maximum zipping through. If so, that would at least somewhat hold back the radiational cooling for the southeastern zones. Winds under high pressure will be light/variable to calm, so wind chill per se is not the issue here compared to just the straight up frigid temperatures. Considering how cold the prior 24 hours will have already been, we could see frozen pipe issues in addition to the typical exposure risk posed by extreme cold, as well as further buildup of ice in the rivers.
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13 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Lots of snow up in the high peaks 

228B93A3-BF9B-43AF-8C37-B8309767B4C5.jpeg

A few years back my family went to Lake Placid for the first time. On the walk around Mirror Lake they have a plaque for each of the 46 high peaks. My then 7 and 4 year old boys saw Nippletop and couldn’t stop laughing and saying it. We proceeded to the village shops and they took turns repeating “Nippletop” and laughing. The passersby got a kick out of it. Lol

Ahhhhh…. memories. 

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11 minutes ago, 96blizz said:

A few years back my family went to Lake Placid for the first time. On the walk around Mirror Lake they have a plaque for each of the 46 high peaks. My then 7 and 4 year old boys saw Nippletop and couldn’t stop laughing and saying it. We proceeded to the village shops and they took turns repeating “Nippletop” and laughing. The passersby got a kick out of it. Lol

Ahhhhh…. memories. 

You shoulda took them to Grand Tetons. 

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