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Upstate/Eastern New York-Pattern Change Vs Tughill Curse?


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38F here. KSYZZLE also at 38F.  The airport seems to track more closely with surrounding reports when it's windy and/or large scale temp advection is occurring. Just my general ob.

I think i saw a stray flake and clouds look dark to my north where radar shows some returns attm, but dry otherwise. We shouldn't see much if any melt today, maybe some compaction with limited duration warmup and overcast conditions.  Thinking 2-3" overnight.   

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6 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

38F here. KSYZZLE also at 38F.  The airport seems to track more closely with surrounding reports when it's windy and/or large scale temp advection is occurring. Just my general ob.

I think i saw a stray flake and clouds look dark to my north where radar shows some returns attm, but dry otherwise. We shouldn't see much if any melt today, maybe some compaction with limited duration warmup and overcast conditions.  Thinking 2-3" overnight.   

Hopefully something similar 8 miles to your east in Cicero

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8 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

38F here. KSYZZLE also at 38F.  The airport seems to track more closely with surrounding reports when it's windy and/or large scale temp advection is occurring. Just my general ob.

I think i saw a stray flake and clouds look dark to my north where radar shows some returns attm, but dry otherwise. We shouldn't see much if any melt today, maybe some compaction with limited duration warmup and overcast conditions.  Thinking 2-3" overnight.   

Agree with everything and same conditions. Dewpoint nice and low around 20 degrees.

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Couldn’t help but notice the clipper pattern for next week is all over the place. The 0z; 6z and 12z are all very different for next Tuesday in regards to placement of the clipper. What concerns me is it shifting north of us again like thus mornings LP and we get into this 3 days of dry Arctic and one day of upper 30’s and mix precip.

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1 hour ago, Thinksnow18 said:

Couldn’t help but notice the clipper pattern for next week is all over the place. The 0z; 6z and 12z are all very different for next Tuesday in regards to placement of the clipper. What concerns me is it shifting north of us again like thus mornings LP and we get into this 3 days of dry Arctic and one day of upper 30’s and mix precip.

12z GFS shows the biggest clipper on the 26th doing that now with another brief thaw like today. The positive is models still aren't showing much signs of a huge warmup like most seem to think will happen in February-April yet. 

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Sunday is looking like a "transition" band but it still could be solid east of the lakes if it moves slow enough lol Or gets hung up a little..

A cold front pushes through the region Sunday into Sunday with 850mb
temperatures getting back down close to -20C. Have a chance for lake
effect snow showers across CNY, especially by afternoon (if current
timing holds).  The lake effect looks to start on a west-southwest
flow, then drop south by Sunday night as the flow backs more northwest.
Temperatures should be more seasonable on Sunday, with highs
mainly 25 to 30.

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qpf_024h.us_ne (39).png

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Good ol' Sizzlecuse. The temp just keeps pumping up and up. Every time I think it's hit its max temp, it goes up another degree. 

The one thing this city CAN count on to overperform is warmth. I knew when I saw 38 degrees for the high that we would work towards almost the mid 40s. Always 5 degrees warmer.

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19 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Good ol' Sizzlecuse. The temp just keeps pumping up and up. Every time I think it's hit its max temp, it goes up another degree. 

The one thing this city CAN count on to overperform is warmth. I knew when I saw 38 degrees for the high that we would work towards almost the mid 40s. Always 5 degrees warmer.

It’s not like the difference between 40 and 44 means snow vs rain. 

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1 minute ago, rochesterdave said:

It’s not like the difference between 40 and 44 means snow vs rain. 

True. It does make a difference in rate of melting. But thankfully with low dewpoints, I think that has been limited?  I find it both fascinating (and of course irritating as the winter weenie I am) how much the Thruway corridor in NY torches due to a Southerly wind...even with a solid, dense snowpack!

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Colder air aloft will also move in tonight, with 850mb
temperatures dropping to about -17c by daybreak Thursday. By
late evening it should be cold enough for a lake response.
This will be best defined off Lake Ontario when a secondary
front drops south across the lake late tonight. Expect a band
to develop southeast of Lake Ontario tonight as this front
sweeps up any available moisture. This band will quickly push
south of the lake by daybreak, producing a quick burst of snow
with a quick inch or two possible. After this there will not be
much moisture available Thursday, with light disorganized lake
snows likely southeast of Lake Ontario during the day. Expecting
a total of 2-4 inches from Wayne to Oswego counties tonight and
Thursday. Some light snow showers possible south of Lake
Ontario from Niagara to Monroe counties with accumulation mainly
an inch or less.

 

 

A cold front will track across the region Sunday as a clipper system
moves north of New England. Northwest flow behind the front and
850mb temperatures falling to near -14C will yield another round of
lake effect snow east/southeast of the Lakes into Monday. This round
will be brief as surface high pressure tracks across the central
Appalachians.

Both the 12z GFS and 12z EC have come to a better agreement that an
area of low pressure will track near, if not across the region
Monday night into Tuesday. Widespread snow is possible with lake
enhancement behind it. There is still question if a southern stream
feature may phase with the northern stream as they approach the east
coast.

Temperatures will remain below normal during the period.
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