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Upstate/Eastern New York-Pattern Change Vs Tughill Curse?


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13 minutes ago, CoolMikeWx said:

Just got back from my trip up there. The entire area did pretty well on and off the hill headed towards Brantingham and Stillwater.

I was at Cedar Pines (I can never get a beer there they are always jammed and they seem to avoid people standing up.) and the trails out there were not as impressive as 12-18+ inches should've been. But they definitely got the snow.

We stayed at the Edge in Lyons Falls and waking up yesterday they were dry-slotted for a few hours but after that it was snowing most of the day moderately (we were in Stillwater area mostly but even at 5pm when we had dinner at the Pine Tree it was coming down).

If I had to guess they got 7-8 inches on and off the hill headed east towards OF. I don't know how OF itself made out, nonetheless they really needed something and could use a lot more.

I golfed last night (indoors) with a big trail rider and he had the same assessment for conditions...they need a better base in general, it's still thin in areas as the LES to-date has been compacting and not as widespread deep as one might imagine from the recent LES event up there. 

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10 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

I am at 35.6" for Season as of this a.m.  18.4" in January so far.  There was only one legit single snowfall in Nov/Dec, ~5" LES, the rest was nickles and dimes.  KSYZZLE has 30.0" as of this a.m.'s Daily Climo report with 16.3" in January to date.

Just looked at the reports that you referenced. Those totals, I'm assuming, are from the 24 hours starting at 7 am yesterday. So that doesn't include what fell Sunday night. So 7 to 8 inches for your locale seems right.

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44 minutes ago, vortmax said:

And we are all drooling over BUFs snowfall this year as if it's unattainable - yet only slightly above average. The bar is lowwww.

Looking at the Ontario webcam, it looks like you guys only have 4ish inches on the ground?! Is that true? You must have gotten sleeted on and missed the best stuff that Rochester got? :( 

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3 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said:

Yeah BGM was up to 28.1 counting 1/17. With the few inches of LE last night and this morning, they'll probably be up to like 31-32 once 1/18 is posted tomorrow.

Not sure how much fell after midnight at KSYZZLE.  Don't think it was much as I didn't get anything of note and radar looked bleak.

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1 minute ago, Syrmax said:

Not sure how much fell after midnight at KSYZZLE.  Don't think it was much as I didn't get anything of note and radar looked bleak.

As noted above, I am guessing the lake effect did the typical NW flow thing and hit the Finger Lakes into SW Onondaga county... check out the Tully cam. We...were left dry.

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5 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said:

Consecutive SE shifts on 0z and 6z eps mean for this weekend. Doesn't look good. 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-ne-snow_total_multimember_panel_ecmwf_a-2960800.thumb.png.a3834f1c742c48df57ae3c6ac6409d3a.pngecmwf-ensemble-avg-ne-snow_total_multimember_panel_ecmwf_b-2960800.thumb.png.c9b1a9651898986a97700e38d36d599f.png

I think there has been a good deal of data to suggest the new GFS is superior to the ECMWF. The GFS has lead the way so far this winter sniffing out the track and the consistency within 4-5 days lead time. It may not be the best just before the event but I’ve noticed the other models playing catch-up to the GFS…might change but I’m not expecting it.

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1 minute ago, Thinksnow18 said:

I think there has been a good deal of Dara to suggest the new GFS is superior to the ECMWF. The GFS has lead the way so far this winter sniffing out the track and the consistency within 4-5 days lead time. It may not be the best just before billing I’ve noticed the other models playing catch-up to the GFS…might change but I’m not expecting it.

Right on. GFS for tracks and Rgem for Lake effect.

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2 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

I think there has been a good deal of Dara to suggest the new GFS is superior to the ECMWF. The GFS has lead the way so far this winter sniffing out the track and the consistency within 4-5 days lead time. It may not be the best just before billing I’ve noticed the other models playing catch-up to the GFS…might change but I’m not expecting it.

That's my perception also. Euro hasn't distinguished itself this season thusfar. Op GooFuS also beat the ensembles like the Bills v Patriots game with this last system. ;)

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2 hours ago, Syrmax said:

Strongly Agree. Living in SE CT from 1984 to 2000 it was hard to buy a snowstorm without "issues".  And the # of times the coastal front showed up to rocket us into the 40's or low 50s while 30 miles inland got pounded with snow were too many to mention.  1995/96 was the only really good winter in that stretch. Hell  i had 5" of gruel & dryslot for the Storm O' Century in 1993 while west of the CT River got 18"+. Of course, since i left they get a Blizzard annually it seems. 

A few years ago who could forget Boston's snow piles lasting into summer

1993 March Blizzard 10 inches on LI then a solid freeze afterwards

 

Agree with 1995-1996  NYC recorded I think their snowiest winter with around 75"

 2010's on LI  in some years were not too bad either

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I guess these are areas of interest..

 

Wednesday, the surface low associated with the warm frontal passage
tonight will track to the north of the region. In its journey, an
associated cold front will be dragged across the region Wednesday
afternoon and evening. Ahead of the incoming cold front, southwest
winds will pick up across the region with up to 35mph gusts
possible. Additionally, the southwest winds will further aid warmer
air to advect into the region, supporting temperatures into the
upper 30s to near 40. Then, Wednesday afternoon the front will cross
from east to west where the lake plains will see a mix of rain and
snow showers and some wet snow showers elsewhere. However, east of
Lake Ontario should stay mostly snow with a couple of inches of snow
will be possible.

 

Winds will shift to the northwest as a cold front pushes southward
across the area Wednesday night. 850mb temps drop from about -12c
Wednesday evening to -16c daybreak Thursday. Modest lake effect snow
east of Lake Ontario should enhance a bit with a band dropping south
of the lake late Wednesday night. Expect this to drop 1-3 inches
southeast of Lake Ontario from Wayne to Oswego counties. Shorter
fetch from the northwest flow could drop 1-2 inches east of Lake
Erie.
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The cold pattern will continue with below normal temperatures and a
chance of snow showers.

An elongated trough of low pressure and an associated cold front
will approach Saturday night. This will bring a chance of general
snow showers Sunday, with lake effect snow showers east/southeast of
the lakes late Sunday through Monday. For most locations, any snow
accumulation will be light (less than 2 inches) however with 850mb
temperatures around -19c any lake snow would likely have snow/water
equivalent ratios in excess of 20:1.

A clipper low will move across the eastern Great Lakes Monday night
and Tuesday. Improving model agreement on this and although QPFS are
light, suspect there`s a good chance of measurable precipitation
even if it will be on the light side.
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Kbuf snow map and rgem..

Not sure I agree with this yet lol With winds starting out of the west and quickly veering NW, east of the lake may not have time to catch any potential band as it may start  getting better organized just to the south.. Unfortunately seems like this has happened a few times this year..

StormTotalSnowWeb1 (5).jpg

snku_acc.us_ne - 2022-01-18T180308.834.png

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1 hour ago, wolfie09 said:

I guess these are areas of interest..

Then, Wednesday afternoon the front will cross from east to west where the lake plains will see a mix of rain and snow showers and some wet snow showers elsewhere. However, east of Lake Ontario should stay mostly snow with a couple of inches of snow will be possible.

This was the "area of interest" I noticed....

Even the NWS can get their directions confused once in a while. :lol:

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