Upstate/Eastern New York-Pattern Change Vs Tughill Curse?

[Syrmax]

41 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Actually, it wasn't far off. It had those couple inches at the beginning (which is what we got) and then several inches of lake enhanced (which is what we got). It was a little low on totals but very close. 

Interestingly, I think I robbed myself of some snowfall. I measured 3.5"/0.24" Liquid for all of yesterday in my designated spot. Seemed like more driving home last night. Sure enough, local Spotters reported 5.3  to 5.8" near me with lower ratios of 11-12:1.  Didn't think there was enough wind / direction problem to create a shadow effect with house/treeline.  Weird.

[BuffaloWeather]

Clipper train on the 6z GFS. 

[TugHillMatt]

18 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

Interestingly, I think I robbed myself of some snowfall. I measured 3.5"/0.24" Liquid for all of yesterday in my designated spot. Seemed like more driving home last night. Sure enough, local Spotters reported 5.3  to 5.8" near me with lower ratios of 11-12:1.  Didn't think there was enough wind / direction problem to create a shadow effect with house/treeline.  Weird.

It's hilarious when you look at Snowfall reports across the BGM and BUF areas. Every county got a GREAT snowstorm with double digits and then you see Onondaga, and it's like "Eh."

Syracuse Synoptic Screw hole lives on. Oh, well... at least it's white out there.

[wolfie09]

Much colder air will move into the region Thursday through the
weekend. Wind chills may drop to -25F or colder late Thursday night
through Friday morning, and again Friday night through Saturday
morning.

[Syrmax]

1 minute ago, TugHillMatt said:

It's hilarious when you look at Snowfall reports across the BGM and BUF areas. Every county got a GREAT snowstorm with double digits and then you see Onondaga, and it's like "Eh."

Syracuse Synoptic Screw hole lives on. Oh, well... at least it's white out there.

Yeah, we really got shafted overall. On the plus side I have about 7-8" of quality snowpack with the sleet that fell.  Should withstand our local micro Sizzles pretty well.

[TugHillMatt]

Looks to me like the northern stream remains in Canada and the clippers miss us or we get showers/thaws...and the southern stream stays in the Mid-Atlantic and we get sniffed. The basic pattern we've had for years. Awful for Syracuse.

The pictures and videos of Western New York look great. Glad you guys can claim a great snowstorm for the winter.

[Syrmax]

5 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Looks to me like the northern stream remains in Canada and the clippers miss us or we get showers/thaws...and the southern stream stays in the Mid-Atlantic and we get sniffed. The basic pattern we've had for years. Awful for Syracuse.

The pictures and videos of Western New York look great. Glad you guys can claim a great snowstorm for the winter.

That may play out but usually a storm or two eventually shows up over a 2 week stretch.  No guarantee  of course but we've done this drill before. The pattern doesn't exactly stink. 

[TugHillMatt]

2 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

That may play out but usually a storm or two eventually shows up over a 2 week stretch.  No guarantee  of course but we've done this drill before. The pattern doesn't exactly stink. 

Yeah, I just don't see the northern stream allowing anything to move far enough north for us. If it does allow it, warm air seems to invade and our awful location gets skunked by low elevation, Great Lake warmth, Atlantic warmth (this past storm..lol), downsloping, etc... it's like we have to look at it and think, "What could go wrong?"

Sorry, guys...I'm done. Discouraged and irritated with the high expectations I had of moving to Syracuse and the winters have sucked.

I'd love to have actual meteorological discussion about it, but there really isn't anything else to discuss about it other than "bad luck" in terms of synoptic snowstorms. Perhaps it is rare to have a snowstorm here that isn't affected by warm slots, dry slots, downsloping, shear, elevation, etc.. Apparently, it used to be "the place to be" for snowstorms.

[sferic]

1 minute ago, TugHillMatt said:

Yeah, I just don't see the northern stream allowing anything to move far enough north for us. If it does allow it, warm air seems to invade and our awful location gets skunked by low elevation, Great Lake warmth, Atlantic warmth (this past storm..lol), downsloping, etc... it's like we have to look at it and think, "What could go wrong?"

Sorry, guys...I'm done. Discouraged and irritated with the high expectations I had of moving to Syracuse and the winters have sucked.

I'd love to have actual meteorological discussion about it, but there really isn't anything else to discuss about it other than "bad luck" in terms of synoptic snowstorms. Perhaps it is rare to have a snowstorm here that isn't affected by warm slots, dry slots, downsloping, shear, elevation, etc.. Apparently, it used to be "the place to be" for snowstorms.

Coming from Long Island mainly it seems ANY winter here is better than ANY of Long Island's best winters ever

[Thinksnow18]

25 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

It's hilarious when you look at Snowfall reports across the BGM and BUF areas. Every county got a GREAT snowstorm with double digits and then you see Onondaga, and it's like "Eh."

Syracuse Synoptic Screw hole lives on. Oh, well... at least it's white out there.

That’s the spirit! 

[Thinksnow18]

1 minute ago, sferic said:

Coming from Long Island mainly it seems ANY winter here is better than ANY of Long Island's best winters ever

Ever been to Snowlessacuse?

[TugHillMatt]

2 minutes ago, sferic said:

Coming from Long Island mainly it seems ANY winter here is better than ANY of Long Island's best winters ever

Oh, I'm sure! 

[TugHillMatt]

Anyways.... NEXT!  

[CNY_WX]

46 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

Interestingly, I think I robbed myself of some snowfall. I measured 3.5"/0.24" Liquid for all of yesterday in my designated spot. Seemed like more driving home last night. Sure enough, local Spotters reported 5.3  to 5.8" near me with lower ratios of 11-12:1.  Didn't think there was enough wind / direction problem to create a shadow effect with house/treeline.  Weird.

I don’t think your measurements are that far off. I measured 4.2 inches of snow for all of yesterday. Adding that to the 1.5 inches of snow/sleet measured yesterday morning puts my location just under 6 inches for the storm. I’m still melting the snow in my tube so I don’t have the liquid equivalent yet. What hurt me yesterday was the snow that fell late morning ahead of the cold air advection behind the storm fell when temperatures were in the mid 30s and didn’t stick. 

[CNY_WX]

11 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Yeah, I just don't see the northern stream allowing anything to move far enough north for us. If it does allow it, warm air seems to invade and our awful location gets skunked by low elevation, Great Lake warmth, Atlantic warmth (this past storm..lol), downsloping, etc... it's like we have to look at it and think, "What could go wrong?"

Sorry, guys...I'm done. Discouraged and irritated with the high expectations I had of moving to Syracuse and the winters have sucked.

I'd love to have actual meteorological discussion about it, but there really isn't anything else to discuss about it other than "bad luck" in terms of synoptic snowstorms. Perhaps it is rare to have a snowstorm here that isn't affected by warm slots, dry slots, downsloping, shear, elevation, etc.. Apparently, it used to be "the place to be" for snowstorms.

Matt, you’re the glass is 3/4 empty kind of guy!

[CNY_WX]

Weren’t we talking just 2 weeks ago how there were no storms for the foreseeable future and we were wasting this cold air. Then about a week and a half ago this storm popped up on the models and stayed there. So don’t throw in the towel yet, I’ve seen storms pop up almost out of nowhere and we’re only halfway through winter. Syracuse doesn’t have the highest average snowfall for cities over 100,000 for nothing. Eventually we’ll revert to the mean. 

[Syrmax]

30 minutes ago, sferic said:

Coming from Long Island mainly it seems ANY winter here is better than ANY of Long Island's best winters ever

Strongly Agree. Living in SE CT from 1984 to 2000 it was hard to buy a snowstorm without "issues".  And the # of times the coastal front showed up to rocket us into the 40's or low 50s while 30 miles inland got pounded with snow were too many to mention.  1995/96 was the only really good winter in that stretch. Hell  i had 5" of gruel & dryslot for the Storm O' Century in 1993 while west of the CT River got 18"+. Of course, since i left they get a Blizzard annually it seems. 

[TugHillMatt]

19 minutes ago, CNY_WX said:

Matt, you’re the glass is 3/4 empty kind of guy!

 

12 minutes ago, CNY_WX said:

Weren’t we talking just 2 weeks ago how there were no storms for the foreseeable future and we were wasting this cold air. Then about a week and a half ago this storm popped up on the models and stayed there. So don’t throw in the towel yet, I’ve seen storms pop up almost out of nowhere and we’re only halfway through winter. Syracuse doesn’t have the highest average snowfall for cities over 100,000 for nothing. Eventually we’ll revert to the mean. 

Hey, it just stinks when we're on our 3rd winter of being well below average to date...especially Syracuse itself. There's been lots of action. It's just not worked out for us. Like I said... NEXT. I don't want to dwell...just needed to vent. Apologies for "vomiting" it out there and trying to move on while everybody else is like, "What?" 

[wolfie09]

Well buffalo is having a solid season lol According to GSA they have just under 53" on the year, around 3-4" above where they should be this time of year..

[TugHillMatt]

Yeah, I think I saw SYR is 20 inches below normal? Doing better than that here in the Northwest burbs.

[wolfie09]

I don't think it's updated yet as it says"no report".. This was updated 6pm last night..

[TugHillMatt]

Oh, I was wrong...actually not being 'negative" enough... LOL. Almost 30 inches below normal to date (guessing snowfall to date will be up near 30 with the report).

[BGM Blizzard]

9 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

I don't think it's updated yet as it says"no report".. This was updated 6pm last night..

That doesn't have BGMs latest numbers following the storm. Between the storm and lake effect last night and this morning, I think BGM is in the 30s now.

[TugHillMatt]

Yeah, I think Syracuse will be in 4th place out of the 5. The table that wolfie reposted just shows some of my frustration. 3rd straight winter. Check out how poorly Syracuse did last winter too. (Rochester was on the bottom with us.)

[vortmax]

17 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Well buffalo is having a solid season lol According to GSA they have just under 53" on the year, around 3-4" above where they should be this time of year..

And we are all drooling over BUFs snowfall this year as if it's unattainable - yet only slightly above average. The bar is lowwww.

[BuffaloWeather]

39 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

 

Hey, it just stinks when we're on our 3rd winter of being well below average to date...especially Syracuse itself. There's been lots of action. It's just not worked out for us. Like I said... NEXT. I don't want to dwell...just needed to vent. Apologies for "vomiting" it out there and trying to move on while everybody else is like, "What?" 

Everyone is on their 3rd winter of being below normal in Upstate besides maybe Binghamton last year and Buffalo this year, but we're only 3" above and will likely be below average by end of this week. Your location also has not been bad at all compared to SYR recording station. What's your total for year so far? 

[TugHillMatt]

Just now, BuffaloWeather said:

Everyone is on their 3rd winter of being below normal in Upstate besides maybe Binghamton last year and Buffalo this year, but we're only 3" above and will likely be below average by end of this week. Your location also has not been bad at all compared to SYR recording station. What's your total for year so far? 

Oh, yeah. LIke I said, I've done better than SYR this winter. I'm between 40 and 45 inches. Still well below normal, but better than Syracuse.

[BuffaloWeather]

The next time period to watch is probably on Sunday with Arctic front and next week has several clippers with some lake enhancement/effect. Won't know much LES potential until closer to event, but likely meandering bands of enhancement. 

 

 

[CoolMikeWx]

3 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

you don't use global models when dealing with mixing, they won't see tiny thin layers of warm intrusion. I said that like 5 times in the thread.  Yes the nam got the warm air intrusion aloft right as it should with a meso, but in general was way way way way way  to warm. Ask tughill how his 1-3" of snow is doing. I would use rgem over nam in a heartbeat.

Just got back from my trip up there. The entire area did pretty well on and off the hill headed towards Brantingham and Stillwater.

I was at Cedar Pines (I can never get a beer there they are always jammed and they seem to avoid people standing up.) and the trails out there were not as impressive as 12-18+ inches should've been. But they definitely got the snow.

We stayed at the Edge in Lyons Falls and waking up yesterday they were dry-slotted for a few hours but after that it was snowing most of the day moderately (we were in Stillwater area mostly but even at 5pm when we had dinner at the Pine Tree it was coming down).

If I had to guess they got 7-8 inches on and off the hill headed east towards OF. I don't know how OF itself made out, nonetheless they really needed something and could use a lot more.

[Syrmax]

12 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Oh, yeah. LIke I said, I've done better than SYR this winter. I'm between 40 and 45 inches. Still well below normal, but better than Syracuse.

I am at 35.6" for Season as of this a.m.  18.4" in January so far.  There was only one legit single snowfall in Nov/Dec, ~5" LES, the rest was nickles and dimes.  KSYZZLE has 30.0" as of this a.m.'s Daily Climo report with 16.3" in January to date.