LakeEffectKing Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 For entertainment purposes only..... 06z GFS....952mb....wow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 1 minute ago, LakeEffectKing said: For entertainment purposes only..... 06z GFS....952mb....wow! Something like that is borderline chaseable!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Revracer800 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 -27 in Saranac Lake this morning, that's just crazy cold for NY weather wow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 Well it looks like we are headed for another dry spell lol Not much to get excited about over the next week or so..Next clipper is to far north, probably see a mix with limited LES on the back side..It's funny because we will probably finish the month with below average temps and below average snowfall lol Unless something decent pops up in the future.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 46 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Well it looks like we are headed for another dry spell lol Not much to get excited about over the next week or so..Next clipper is to far north, probably see a mix with limited LES on the back side..It's funny because we will probably finish the month with below average temps and below average snowfall lol Unless something decent pops up in the future.. Ha! Yup...it's this neverending repeat pattern we've been in for years.. cool down, then warms up and rains...cool down. Perhaps we can get this to move far enough north on Thursday? Or will it take the suppressed southern track right after the one on Wednesday takes the north track? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 17, 2022 Author Share Posted January 17, 2022 2 hours ago, wolfie09 said: Well it looks like we are headed for another dry spell lol Not much to get excited about over the next week or so..Next clipper is to far north, probably see a mix with limited LES on the back side..It's funny because we will probably finish the month with below average temps and below average snowfall lol Unless something decent pops up in the future.. If you would have told me we'd be 2-3 degrees below normal and all of us wouldn't be above normal snowfall for the month I wouldn't believe you. Still 2 weeks left to get some LES going. It's going to be cold, hopefully we can get some clippers. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 Perhaps we can get that system that's starting to show up for next Saturday to make it up to CNY? Maybe? Please? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 Our post storm ‘active pattern’ isn’t looking like too much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 Next system is a "Wavy" front, looks to miss to the south..We could see some but brief lake effect behind the front on a veering wind.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 I am quite perplexed on what it takes for CNY to get a decent synoptic snowfall. It's like we need the perfect thread-the-needle situation. These lows are too far south, but if they come even the slightest bit too far north for us to actually get affected, we warm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 55 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: I am quite perplexed on what it takes for CNY to get a decent synoptic snowfall. It's like we need the perfect thread-the-needle situation. These lows are too far south, but if they come even the slightest bit too far north for us to actually get affected, we warm. Trust me, I know how that feels up here in Toronto. This latest storm was very much the exception that proved the rule. We are not exposed to lake effect snows too often, while the lake serves to moderate our temperatures. Unlike cities like Ottawa and Montreal, we aren't in a valley location that can trap in the cold. We are very often in a snow-to-rain scenario here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 6 hours ago, TugHillMatt said: Ha! Yup...it's this neverending repeat pattern we've been in for years.. cool down, then warms up and rains...cool down. Perhaps we can get this to move far enough north on Thursday? Or will it take the suppressed southern track right after the one on Wednesday takes the north track? I remember back in 2007-2008, there was very much a "northwest trend" on the models, kind of like what we saw with the recent storm. Maybe we can get that to happen with this storm too? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 On 1/16/2022 at 7:21 AM, LakeEffectKing said: For entertainment purposes only..... 06z GFS....952mb....wow! Congratulations Bangor, Jackman Station, and Quebec City. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 2 minutes ago, Ottawa Blizzard said: Trust me, I know how that feels up here in Toronto. This latest storm was very much the exception that proved the rule. We are not exposed to lake effect snows too often, while the lake serves to moderate our temperatures. Unlike cities like Ottawa and Montreal, we aren't in a valley location that can trap in the cold. We are very often in a snow-to-rain scenario here. Thanks for sharing. Yeah, Toronto would be a tough city for a winter lover...especially when Barrie right up the road gets walloped. I hope you have some great opportunities to enjoy your amazing snowfall this week! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 18, 2022 Author Share Posted January 18, 2022 No one in Buffalo is allowed to complain the rest of this winter. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 18, 2022 Author Share Posted January 18, 2022 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 EPS has a smattering of hits with the weekend system. Odds don't look great with the rest of the models being misses but maybe we get lucky. Control run 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 51 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said: EPS has a smattering of hits with the weekend system. Odds don't look great with the rest of the models being misses but maybe we get lucky. Control run Door #29 please. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Are we ready to do it again? 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 26 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Are we ready to do it again? Need that nw trend to work for us this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 10 minutes ago, tim123 said: Need that nw trend to work for us this time. For reals...a little bit each day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 39 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Are we ready to do it again? No. I'll just wait for the NAM and RGEM inside 48. The rest is wanking. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 3 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: No one in Buffalo is allowed to complain the rest of this winter. Looks like I can complain "for at least two more weeks." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 18, 2022 Author Share Posted January 18, 2022 Went to wilkonson this afternoon to see how high the winds were and to check ice coverage. Still very little ice even on the harbor 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 9 hours ago, rochesterdave said: Are we ready to do it again? 9 hours ago, tim123 said: Need that nw trend to work for us this time. Our only hope is that kicker wave to move faster and phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 48 minutes ago, vortmax said: Our only hope is that kicker wave to move faster and phase. Yeah, and at this juncture that would be a dramatic change. 6z Euro flat and that was our biggest supporter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 1 hour ago, vortmax said: Our only hope is that kicker wave to move faster and phase. other way around, you need more separation. Kicker wave is behind this, it's not dropping in and interacting. More separation the better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 9 hours ago, Syrmax said: No. I'll just wait for the NAM and RGEM inside 48. The rest is wanking. you don't use global models when dealing with mixing, they won't see tiny thin layers of warm intrusion. I said that like 5 times in the thread. Yes the nam got the warm air intrusion aloft right as it should with a meso, but in general was way way way way way to warm. Ask tughill how his 1-3" of snow is doing. I would use rgem over nam in a heartbeat. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 25 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: you don't use global models when dealing with mixing, they won't see tiny thin layers of warm intrusion. I said that like 5 times in the thread. Yes the nam got the warm air intrusion aloft right as it should with a meso, but in general was way way way way way to warm. Ask tughill how his 1-3" of snow is doing. I would use rgem over nam in a heartbeat. Actually, it wasn't far off. It had those couple inches at the beginning (which is what we got) and then several inches of lake enhanced (which is what we got). It was a little low on totals but very close. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 1 hour ago, tombo82685 said: you don't use global models when dealing with mixing, they won't see tiny thin layers of warm intrusion. I said that like 5 times in the thread. Yes the nam got the warm air intrusion aloft right as it should with a meso, but in general was way way way way way to warm. Ask tughill how his 1-3" of snow is doing. I would use rgem over nam in a heartbeat. Perhaps I wasn't clear enough with my sarcasm. I understand all that. Personally I was hoping meso's were wrong but the 800-850mb layer was above zero and that worked out generally in both models. For this area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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