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Upstate/Eastern New York-Pattern Change Vs Tughill Curse?


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Both the 00z ECMWF and CMC (and the new 12z runs) are a little closer to the ensembles and thus a preferred starting point for the WPC forecast at this time. This led to a surface low over southern New Jersey which is pretty close to previous WPC continuity. It should, however, be stressed that the energy leading to this potent shortwave is still out in the Pacific Ocean at this time thus, data sampling is poor. As the energy reaches the Northwest U.S. and encounters more observations, additional shifts (potentially large) in the models are likely.

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A saturated, west-southwest low-level flow just south of
a frontal boundary has led to drizzle and freezing drizzle east of
Lake Ontario this evening. Saturation below the snow growth zone
with cloud tops of -11C has led to little observed snowfall in the
area. Moderate to heavy freezing drizzle has been reported this
evening on the western edges of the Tug Hill Plateau. With the
exception of the immediate Lake Ontario shoreline, the North Country
is below freezing and will stay below freezing tonight. Ice
accumulations of a few hundredths of an inch are likely. Fcst
soundings show upstream moisture should change freezing drizzle back
to snow late tonight.

A wavy frontal boundary over southern Ontario will drift south
across Lake Ontario overnight before becoming stalled over the lake
as we head through Thursday. A west to southwest flow of lake
enhanced moisture will be found over our region during this period.
This will not only keep our region shrouded under a wealth of clouds
but will support some nuisance snow...mainly northeast of both
lakes.
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44 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

Driveway glazed here but IP also mixed in sitting right at 32.5F.  Of course KSizzle Airport reporting 35F with all other surrounding reports at 33/34 F. 

Yeah, I saw the Sizzlecuse reporting above everyone else, per usual. 

32 degrees here in the Northwest Burbs.

I just realized...if I can make it through tomorrow's 30s without losing the snowpack (Thank you freezing drizzle and low dewpoints?) it will be a full week of solid snowcover! (Up to this past week, I think the longest the pack survived was like 2.5 days before grass was showing?) I was checking out webcams earlier today (shocker..lol) and could really tell the city has quite a bit less snow. It really does surprise me how much wintrier we are up here than the metro area itself.

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Going to be putting together videos of some of Upstates biggest snowstorms. It's been a project I've always wanted to work on. Obviously going to do 1977, 1993, 1995, 2001, 2006, 2010. Already did one for 2014. Let me know if you guys want any photos/videos added or any other storms you can think of.

Here is the first one I completed for Blizzard of 1985. Some of the older storms its tough to get good content on. There were hardly any videos/photos for this storm. I want to make them a few minutes each if possible. There are so many storms in the Buffalo book of snowstorms that go way way back, but no content for them. There are a couple in there with 70"+ totals. =(

 

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