tombo82685 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Frame before 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Def a lot of westward lean 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 So many of the models really want to take the Low along the Appalachian Mountains in PA: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 3 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: Def a lot of westward lean No bueno Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: So many of the models really want to take the Low along the Appalachian Mountains in PA: Lol at that map, app mtns 10 miles nw of philly and nyc??? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, tombo82685 said: Lol at that map, app mtns 10 miles nw of philly and nyc??? Yes, I chuckled at that as well... The point is the main area of the mountains...most of us know the southeastern part of that is actually the Piedmont region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Plus, it may not appear as part of it from above, but below is a different story... Bend in Appalachian mountain chain finally explained : NewsCenter (rochester.edu) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 21 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Can you post? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Both the 00z ECMWF and CMC (and the new 12z runs) are a little closer to the ensembles and thus a preferred starting point for the WPC forecast at this time. This led to a surface low over southern New Jersey which is pretty close to previous WPC continuity. It should, however, be stressed that the energy leading to this potent shortwave is still out in the Pacific Ocean at this time thus, data sampling is poor. As the energy reaches the Northwest U.S. and encounters more observations, additional shifts (potentially large) in the models are likely. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Nice, increased chances for many of us from the 12Z to the 18Z for 6 or more inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Many across the forum are saying this is still 5 days away, but really, it's like 3 days away. By Saturday night, it will be making its trek and we'll be in the midst of either excited, hyper insomnia or melting under a weighted blanket. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 4 minutes ago, tim123 said: I saw that and thought it looked kind of weak on the Northwest flank and considering what the runs are showing. But, it is an average of many... What a storm for North Carolina if that happens! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 What the heck is with the zr tonight. Wanted to go for a walk in with what I thought was snow on radar and it's steady zr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Same here. Heavy freezing drizzle with 32 degrees. Another common Upstate NY thing that happens with that warm air rising over some shallow cold air at the surface. Our snowpack held strong today and now getting that protective crust on top. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Cold most be coming in from the west as I have some sleet with mangled flakes, maybe some raindrops mixed in as well.. Forecast to change over to snow with"around one inch" expected lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Cold most be coming in from the west as I have some sleet with mangled flakes, maybe some raindrops mixed in as well.. Forecast to change over to snow with"around one inch" expected lol Yea I’m over to snow grains and ip with some zr. 29 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Sitting at 34 right now. Was only 7.5 around 24 hours ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Gotta be some weenie warm layer below 2000k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 A saturated, west-southwest low-level flow just south of a frontal boundary has led to drizzle and freezing drizzle east of Lake Ontario this evening. Saturation below the snow growth zone with cloud tops of -11C has led to little observed snowfall in the area. Moderate to heavy freezing drizzle has been reported this evening on the western edges of the Tug Hill Plateau. With the exception of the immediate Lake Ontario shoreline, the North Country is below freezing and will stay below freezing tonight. Ice accumulations of a few hundredths of an inch are likely. Fcst soundings show upstream moisture should change freezing drizzle back to snow late tonight. A wavy frontal boundary over southern Ontario will drift south across Lake Ontario overnight before becoming stalled over the lake as we head through Thursday. A west to southwest flow of lake enhanced moisture will be found over our region during this period. This will not only keep our region shrouded under a wealth of clouds but will support some nuisance snow...mainly northeast of both lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Driveway glazed here but IP also mixed in sitting right at 32.5F. Of course KSizzle Airport reporting 35F with all other surrounding reports at 33/34 F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Pre game NAM fwiw, which is not much at this juncture lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 44 minutes ago, Syrmax said: Driveway glazed here but IP also mixed in sitting right at 32.5F. Of course KSizzle Airport reporting 35F with all other surrounding reports at 33/34 F. Yeah, I saw the Sizzlecuse reporting above everyone else, per usual. 32 degrees here in the Northwest Burbs. I just realized...if I can make it through tomorrow's 30s without losing the snowpack (Thank you freezing drizzle and low dewpoints?) it will be a full week of solid snowcover! (Up to this past week, I think the longest the pack survived was like 2.5 days before grass was showing?) I was checking out webcams earlier today (shocker..lol) and could really tell the city has quite a bit less snow. It really does surprise me how much wintrier we are up here than the metro area itself. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Well, the NAM is going to have to do LOTS of work to get that low from north of Panama City to Jamestown... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 I believe there is a thread for sunday/monday's system 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Thanks tombo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Snow, sleet, graupel mix here. Icy coating on everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 13, 2022 Author Share Posted January 13, 2022 Going to be putting together videos of some of Upstates biggest snowstorms. It's been a project I've always wanted to work on. Obviously going to do 1977, 1993, 1995, 2001, 2006, 2010. Already did one for 2014. Let me know if you guys want any photos/videos added or any other storms you can think of. Here is the first one I completed for Blizzard of 1985. Some of the older storms its tough to get good content on. There were hardly any videos/photos for this storm. I want to make them a few minutes each if possible. There are so many storms in the Buffalo book of snowstorms that go way way back, but no content for them. There are a couple in there with 70"+ totals. =( 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 March 1999 back to back rochester snowstorms 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 13, 2022 Author Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, tim123 said: March 1999 back to back rochester snowstorms Forgot about that one, added to list. If you got anything to send me PM me some links. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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