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Upstate/Eastern New York-Pattern Change Vs Tughill Curse?


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4 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said:

Last frame of 18z Euro. The shortwave looks a little SE of 12z/96. Could argue for a track a little E of the 12z run extrapolated.

928182507_ecmwf-deterministic-conus-vort500_z500-2334400(1).thumb.png.0d314b263117fdb58e8334c95e151841.pngecmwf-deterministic-conus-t850_mslp_prcp6hr-2334400.thumb.png.dcb82113a695a35d692fac2fe298a764.png

My guess would be east. S/w is faster, hgts along east coast are lower and tpv east of Maine slower to move out compresses hgt field 

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43 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

My guess would be east. S/w is faster, hgts along east coast are lower and tpv east of Maine slower to move out compresses hgt field 

Eps go the other way. Much stronger ULL northern energy really diving into system. Pumps hgts more so along coast. Neg tilts faster than 12z

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Syracuse "may" actually be in one of the best spots for this regardless... We look to get at minimum 6 inches regardless of a western or eastern shift. I think the models have in general determined the western and eastern borders as far as track. Now, we wobble back and forth.

 

Oh, and I'm still coming back from PA on Sunday Night....

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