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Upstate/Eastern New York-Pattern Change Vs Tughill Curse?


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Just now, BuffaloWeather said:

All models have a pretty potent clipper right behind this with lake enhanced ahead and lake effect behind which would need headlines too. :mapsnow:

I would hate for that to happen and have to upgrade my 1st Q Grade for this Winter from D- to something like a C or B.

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5 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

The heavy snow stays JUST to the NW of Philly, NYC and Boston. Ouch. 
Classic look though. I’m with Buf- this would be 1-2’ for everyone between Buffalo and Albany. image.thumb.png.b0972b1c8fc1b867b5f43139d7f36cdc.png

That 13.1 is right on the top of my head while 65 miles south NYC might get 3 inches ooooooof. My cousin who went to met school and got me into it lives in Staten Island.. sure he would be upset if this was the solution.:lol:

Lets keep these rolling.

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Just now, BuffaloWeather said:

I might need to start my snowblower.

Funny u mention that. My ex gifted me her 1 year old Ariens snowblower this fall. (We're still friendly).  Brought home, started fine. Went to use it the other day...no go...carb flooding out it appears.  Had to break out my old smaller snowblower...which started first pull...first time using it this season.

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Just remember from last years Miller A. I wouldn't get excited until you see the storm on radar at your house. :lol:

On 2/16/2021 at 12:43 AM, rochesterdave said:

ICON totally nailed this storm. Caught onto the NW shifts first. Followed by the old GFS. EURO (which has sucked this winter) caught on late. UKIE and Canadian never saw it. 
I never saw it. NWS never saw it. Not that I’m comparing myself to them. 
just a huge bust. 3”. 1/7th of my original (and ridiculous) Rochester jackpot #. Less than half of BUFS 10% low end. 

On 2/16/2021 at 1:14 AM, lakeeffectkid383 said:

Am I dreaming or is this real? Fell asleep to heavy snow and wake up 3 hours later with about an inch more on the ground then when I fell asleep and heavy sleet. Lmao. What a freaking bust. No model had sleet getting even close to here. Congrats Toronto? (Again) 

On 2/16/2021 at 12:57 AM, LakeEffectKing said:

For as long as I can remember, models underestimate the warmth thrown northward (at many levels) when systems are west of the apps....and it happens alot, but this was extreme!

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6 minutes ago, CoolMikeWx said:

That 13.1 is right on the top of my head while 65 miles south NYC might get 3 inches ooooooof. My cousin who went to met school and got me into it lives in Staten Island.. sure he would be upset if this was the solution.:lol:

Lets keep these rolling.

It's depressing

 

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4 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

Funny u mention that. My ex gifted me her 1 year old Ariens snowblower this fall. (We're still friendly).  Brought home, started fine. Went to use it the other day...no go...carb flooding out it appears.  Had to break out my old smaller snowblower...which started first pull...first time using it this season.

I bought a new ariens last year that I love. Haven't started it yet this year. If it looks like a decent event I'll have to start her up. Things a beast

 

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