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Upstate/Eastern New York-Pattern Change Vs Tughill Curse?


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2 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

This track would just smash all of W and Central NY. This has potential to be a forum wide 1-2’ deal. With tracks like we are seeing, Buf-SYR would see locally 2 feet plus. It’ll change but right now it looks like a blockbuster. 

It's very tough to get a forum wide storm, as our forum runs from Buffalo east to the New England border, and up to Quebec. But even here in ENY, that would be a decent front end amount followed by dryslot/changeover depending on the ultimate track.

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13 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

100% We need this to be on the east side for however briefly. It won’t cut back across. Danger is if it starts up on the west side. Then we are screwed. 

I’m pretty certain this is setting up to be a classic Miller B storm. Primary goes into western PA and gives way to a much stronger east coast/inland runner that sends copious amounts for most of Upstate. Why this will work as opposed to the damn good tracks in Nov and Dec is now we actually have a large pool of arctic air just to our north. I’m pretty confident (I know I’m setting myself up for the Dave repost) that this is what the models will hone in on

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14 minutes ago, Stash said:

It's very tough to get a forum wide storm, as our forum runs from Buffalo east to the New England border, and up to Quebec. But even here in ENY, that would be a decent front end amount followed by dryslot/changeover depending on the ultimate track.

Yeah, I forget about you eastern and far north weenies. I meant Erie to Binghamton and north to the Tug. But I do think you ENY folks would get into a solid thump followed by dryslot if the GFS was correct. 

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2 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

I’m pretty certain this is setting up to be a classic Miller B storm. Primary goes into western PA and gives way to a much stronger east coast/inland runner that sends copious amounts for most of Upstate. Why this will work as opposed to the damn good tracks in Nov and Dec is now we actually have a large pool of arctic air just to our north. I’m pretty confident (I know I’m setting myself up for the Dave repost) that this is what the models will hone in on

Stamped and filed. 

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8 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

I’m pretty certain this is setting up to be a classic Miller B storm. Primary goes into western PA and gives way to a much stronger east coast/inland runner that sends copious amounts for most of Upstate. Why this will work as opposed to the damn good tracks in Nov and Dec is now we actually have a large pool of arctic air just to our north. I’m pretty confident (I know I’m setting myself up for the Dave repost) that this is what the models will hone in on

This storm is far closer to a Miller A than a miller B.  There is a bit of a coastal transfer, but I would still call this a Hybrid Miller A before calling a it miller B.  Miller B's happen when a storm dropping through the lake or Mid atlantic fires up a low pressure off Hatteras.  This storm has a well defined low pressure system dropping into the Deep south and making the turn up the coast, thats Miller A.  Miller A's are usually the big ones IMO. 

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Just now, DeltaT13 said:

This storm is far closer to a Miller A than a miller B.  There is a bit of a coastal transfer, but I would still call this a Hybrid Miller A before calling a it miller B.  Miller B's happen when a storm dropping through the lake or Mid atlantic fires up a low pressure off Hatteras.  This storm has a well define low pressure system dropping into the Deep south and making the turn up the coast, thats Miller A.  Miller A's are usually the big ones IMO. 

Way more A IMO coming from the deep south.

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24 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

I’m grateful for your youthful mind. I only remember the huge ones at this point. I’m not old (49) but I consume heroic amounts of THC. 

Just looked this storm up in my weather journal, LOLz.   Here is what I wrote:

2/15-2/16/21  Miller A Bust -  A very large and fast moving Miller A came up the coast. This storm was tracked for many days and looked like a solid hit for all of Upstate NY. In the final 6-12 hours before the storm moved in the models all started trending much further NW. As the storm hit, mid level warming changed over almost all of WNY to sleet and and a wintry mix. Snowfall totals ended up being about 3-5 inches of super dense sleet/snow. A far cry from the 12-18 that many expected. The local Met's were roasted once again.

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Our attention then turns to a potential significant synoptic system.
Several days ago there were a few operational runs which showed a
potential synoptic system this weekend, but subsequent runs trended
south and much weaker. The past few runs have now latched back onto
this system, which now is forecast to take a more circuitous route
through the southeast states and then up the east coast, arriving
somewhere in the northeast quadrant of the nation Sunday night and
Monday.

The 00Z GFS and Global GEM continue to suggest a system tracking far
enough inland to have significant impacts in our region, while the
ECMWF is farther east and closer to a more climatological track for
a Nor`Easter. The 00Z GEFS show a good amount of spread in possible
solutions, to be expected at this time range. A majority cluster of
the GEFS suggest a track farther east than the 00Z GFS/GEM. The
system that will result in this potential Nor`Easter is still in the
middle of the data sparse Pacific, so any individual model run
should be taken with a grain of salt at this time range. Given the
uncertainty, increased POPS a little for late Sunday night and
Monday, but still in the chance range. Some limited lake effect will
then develop Monday night and Tuesday east/southeast of the lakes in
the wake of this system.
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6 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:
Our attention then turns to a potential significant synoptic system.
Several days ago there were a few operational runs which showed a
potential synoptic system this weekend, but subsequent runs trended
south and much weaker. The past few runs have now latched back onto
this system, which now is forecast to take a more circuitous route
through the southeast states and then up the east coast, arriving
somewhere in the northeast quadrant of the nation Sunday night and
Monday.

The 00Z GFS and Global GEM continue to suggest a system tracking far
enough inland to have significant impacts in our region, while the
ECMWF is farther east and closer to a more climatological track for
a Nor`Easter. The 00Z GEFS show a good amount of spread in possible
solutions, to be expected at this time range. A majority cluster of
the GEFS suggest a track farther east than the 00Z GFS/GEM. The
system that will result in this potential Nor`Easter is still in the
middle of the data sparse Pacific, so any individual model run
should be taken with a grain of salt at this time range. Given the
uncertainty, increased POPS a little for late Sunday night and
Monday, but still in the chance range. Some limited lake effect will
then develop Monday night and Tuesday east/southeast of the lakes in
the wake of this system.

Wet blanket 

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