rochesterdave Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 It’s stressful but fun. I’ve been looking for a storm for well over a week. Just because the OPS didn’t show one doesn’t mean it just popped up. The overall pattern was conducive for a big one. It was pretty obvious. At least that’s what the smart people on Twitter said. It’s silly to live and die on each run but I can’t help it. I am what I am. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 I see a 983mb near Jamestown...lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said: 12 GEFS Pretty sexy if I'm being honest 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Decent consistency with 6z EURO cluster. Remarkable really. It’s a good sign. I like the position of 90% of these. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Most are sub-990 as well, which is great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, vortmax said: Most are sub-990 as well, which is great. Yeah. Give me the 981 over Philly. Holy hell would that smoke us 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, winter_rules said: As someone who checks in as infrequently as possible (which is hard to do with potential snow in the future), it’s amusing/bewildering to see the huge swings in modelology. 24-30hrs ago the risk was a sunny day in NY with a snowstorm in Georgia/the Carolinas because there is no blocking. A day later the models think the same storm could result in rain in upstate NY. We are just inviting stress and frustration by following weather forecasts for potential events that are many days away. The trouble is we have several major models all showing the distinct possibility of a fairly major snowstorm next Monday so as weenies we naturally start getting excited. Today, we have so much information at our disposal so we hang on each model run and analyze every 50 mile move in the storm track. We have seen recently where models have given us snowy solutions within 48 hours of the event only to have warm air intrude or something else pull the football away. That’s why I have my hopes up but refuse to go over the top yet. I’ll get excited if I wake up next Tuesday and have 18 inches of snow in my driveway. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, rochesterdave said: Yeah. Give me the 981 over Philly. Holy hell would that smoke us Yes, and we have both the moisture and cold so LE will be a big player for south shore if this materializes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Ukie at 10 to 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Ukie gets us now too. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 If it's gonna cut at least give me some backside westerlies lol GFS does have a little.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Good to see maybe pitt get some love. So hard for them to get a food snowstorm down that way 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 12 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Suree. Lol. I can see you pretending to concentrate on the puzzle while secretly looking at your phone. Yup...pretty much. lol But, I am really going to try and focus on not being on here AS much. I don't want to waste too much of my life away when I can be enjoying it with my wife. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 11 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: GEFS, lots of big hitters. Mean came west again. Nice...not stupid taint on any of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 The 700 tracks right over. (small tear of happiness) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 12, 2022 Author Share Posted January 12, 2022 GEFS 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 4 minutes ago, 96blizz said: Ukie gets us now too. Oh snap! I need to change my pants. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 15 minutes ago, winter_rules said: As someone who checks in as infrequently as possible (which is hard to do with potential snow in the future), it’s amusing/bewildering to see the huge swings in modelology. 24-30hrs ago the risk was a sunny day in NY with a snowstorm in Georgia/the Carolinas because there is no blocking. A day later the models think the same storm could result in rain in upstate NY. We are just inviting stress and frustration by following weather forecasts for potential events that are many days away. Right on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Ratios proabally 13 to 15 to 1 if I had to guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Where are the canadians today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 5 minutes ago, tim123 said: Good to see maybe pitt get some love. So hard for them to get a food snowstorm down that way facts 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 We're talking about cutters, but as @BuffaloWeatherhas alluded to, it's very rare for storms to "cut" over the app. mountains. If the Low is on the EAST side of the mountains, our odds of a cutter are waaaaay lower. So, although there is nothing in Canada to stop a cutter, there is a chain of mountains that affects that...It's just been SO long (feels like 1990s) that we forget that part of the meteorology. A low on the West side of the Apps? That's a different story. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, tim123 said: Ratios proabally 13 to 15 to 1 if I had to guess This track would just smash all of W and Central NY. This has potential to be a forum wide 1-2’ deal. With tracks like we are seeing, Buf-SYR would see locally 2 feet plus. It’ll change but right now it looks like a blockbuster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 12, 2022 Author Share Posted January 12, 2022 Cpc released their temp outlook I think yesterday. We got a month of below normal temps during peak cold climo. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, wolfie09 said: Honestly Wolf, when was the last time you remember seeing blockbuster signals like this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 12, 2022 Author Share Posted January 12, 2022 3 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Honestly Wolf, when was the last time you remember seeing blockbuster signals like this? I remember On 2/13/2021 at 5:51 PM, rochesterdave said: Freak! Where the hell have you been this year!? And Delta, where is he? Wake up! It’s a big one. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: We're talking about cutters, but as @BuffaloWeatherhas alluded to, it's very rare for storms to "cut" over the app. mountains. If the Low is on the EAST side of the mountains, our odds of a cutter are waaaaay lower. So, although there is nothing in Canada to stop a cutter, there is a chain of mountains that affects that...It's just been SO long (feels like 1990s) that we forget that part of the meteorology. A low on the West side of the Apps? That's a different story. 100% We need this to be on the east side for however briefly. It won’t cut back across. Danger is if it starts up on the west side. Then we are screwed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said: I remember I’m grateful for your youthful mind. I only remember the huge ones at this point. I’m not old (49) but I consume heroic amounts of THC. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: I remember Don't remember this being a huge storm? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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