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Upstate/Eastern New York-Pattern Change Vs Tughill Curse?


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It’s stressful but fun. I’ve been looking for a storm for well over a week. Just because the OPS didn’t show one doesn’t mean it just popped up. The overall pattern was conducive for a big one. It was pretty obvious. At least that’s what the smart people on Twitter said. 
It’s silly to live and die on each run but I can’t help it. I am what I am. 

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1 minute ago, winter_rules said:

As someone who checks in as infrequently as possible (which is hard to do with potential snow in the future), it’s amusing/bewildering to see the huge swings in modelology.  24-30hrs ago the risk was a sunny day in NY with a snowstorm in Georgia/the Carolinas because there is no blocking. A day later the models think the same storm could result in rain in upstate NY.

We are just inviting stress and frustration by following weather forecasts for potential events that are many days away.  

The trouble is we have several major models all showing the distinct possibility of a fairly major snowstorm next Monday so as weenies we naturally start getting excited. Today, we have so much information at our disposal so we hang on each model run and analyze every 50 mile move in the storm track. We have seen recently where models have given us snowy solutions within 48 hours of the event only to have warm air intrude or something else pull the football away. That’s why I have my hopes up but refuse to go over the top yet. I’ll get excited if I wake up next Tuesday and have 18 inches of snow in my driveway. 

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12 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

Suree. Lol. I can see you pretending to concentrate on the puzzle while secretly looking at your phone. 

Yup...pretty much. lol

But, I am really going to try and focus on not being on here AS much. I don't want to waste too much of my life away when I can be enjoying it with my wife.

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15 minutes ago, winter_rules said:

As someone who checks in as infrequently as possible (which is hard to do with potential snow in the future), it’s amusing/bewildering to see the huge swings in modelology.  24-30hrs ago the risk was a sunny day in NY with a snowstorm in Georgia/the Carolinas because there is no blocking. A day later the models think the same storm could result in rain in upstate NY.

We are just inviting stress and frustration by following weather forecasts for potential events that are many days away.  

Right on. 

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We're talking about cutters, but as @BuffaloWeatherhas alluded to, it's very rare for storms to "cut" over the app. mountains. If the Low is on the EAST side of the mountains, our odds of a cutter are waaaaay lower. So, although there is nothing in Canada to stop a cutter, there is a chain of mountains that affects that...It's just been SO long (feels like 1990s) that we forget that part of the meteorology. A low on the West side of the Apps? That's a different story.

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1 minute ago, tim123 said:

Ratios proabally 13 to 15 to 1 if I had to guess

This track would just smash all of W and Central NY. This has potential to be a forum wide 1-2’ deal. With tracks like we are seeing, Buf-SYR would see locally 2 feet plus. It’ll change but right now it looks like a blockbuster. 

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2 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

We're talking about cutters, but as @BuffaloWeatherhas alluded to, it's very rare for storms to "cut" over the app. mountains. If the Low is on the EAST side of the mountains, our odds of a cutter are waaaaay lower. So, although there is nothing in Canada to stop a cutter, there is a chain of mountains that affects that...It's just been SO long (feels like 1990s) that we forget that part of the meteorology. A low on the West side of the Apps? That's a different story.

100% We need this to be on the east side for however briefly. It won’t cut back across. Danger is if it starts up on the west side. Then we are screwed. 

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