CNY_WX Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, vortmax said: Look at it this way. At least we have a big synoptic situation to track. This is fun for a change. Yes it’s fun to have a synoptic system to track for a change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, tim123 said: Hopefully we can get all snow start to finish with some lake snow like we used to get. 100 inches in Oswego in the Blizzard of 1966. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Gfs will be super amped with a low west of apps up to Jamestown with mix dryslot for western ny while coastal takes over and crushes Binghamton to Albany. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 12, 2022 Author Share Posted January 12, 2022 2 hours ago, rochesterdave said: Have you ever been wrong this many times in 12 hours? I was using reverse psychology to jackpot WNY. Either way that path shown by the GFS has only happened a handful of times in the last decade, I'll believe it when I see it. It's very rare as the system either wants to go east or west of apps. We either get a cutter or coastal 90% of the time with Miller As. Miller Bs are easier to get in Upstate. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolMikeWx Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 3 minutes ago, tim123 said: Gfs will be super amped with a low west of apps up to Jamestown with mix dryslot for western ny while coastal takes over and crushes Binghamton to Albany. I love you guys but this is exactly what I hope happens. Everyone wins, the hill, ADK, and even my home the HV. Cheers.. waiting for the GFS to finish running Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Not much different at hour 60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 12, 2022 Author Share Posted January 12, 2022 Cips analogs http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/DFHR.php?reg=EC&fhr=F120&rundt=2022011200&map=thbCOOP72 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 12, 2022 Author Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 MB stronger on GFS, might be Jamestown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 12, 2022 Author Share Posted January 12, 2022 This is the top analog right now. I'm sure we'd all take it 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Hour 102 looks to butt up against apps and tranfer to ga coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 6 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: This is the top analog right now. I'm sure we'd all take it That lake enhancement SE of L.O. ...it's the secret sauce for Sizzlecuse. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 23 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Never thought I’d see the day I’d consider chasing in Rochester, or even worse…Sizzlecuse. Long way to go. We haven't even entered our wailing and gnashing of teeth phase when modeling threatens to pull the football away. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 12, 2022 Author Share Posted January 12, 2022 Heads up to Binghamton 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Nice hit buffalo roc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 12, 2022 Author Share Posted January 12, 2022 What causes this to go straight north is that high pressure that gets tucked to the east and forces it north. Very rare evolution, but I guess that would cause it to ride the Apps. It hits a wall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 hour ago, tim123 said: You're a bit too obsessed with poop. Stay obsessed with Northerly lake effect off of Lake Ontario. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 With ratios 10 to 15 all of western ny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 7 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Heads up to Binghamton Binghamton to Utica to Montreal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 35 minutes ago, CNY_WX said: That’s why it doesn’t pay to get too excited too soon. There’s too much room for disappointment. Yup. That's why I'm going to be following and posting less over the next several days. Too many ups and downs, when really I should be spending more time with my wife and doing with her what she loves...puzzles. 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 I'd accept that. Pounds to slot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 3 minutes ago, CNY_WX said: Binghamton to Utica to Montreal. Perfect track for all of western ny. Kinda rare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 I am just going to throw it out there at a pure APPS runner is a rare thing indeed. Hard to do. I expect changes. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Nice clipper in a week. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 GEFS mean track pretty close to the 6z track, hugging the coastline to ACY and then NE to LI, but more precip. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Starting to worry about an GLC. Not much to keep it from cutting further. That HP should keep it from going OTS. But I’m with Vort, at least we have a synoptic storm to track! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Damn Canadians are late today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 15 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Yup. That's why I'm going to be following and posting less over the next several days. Too many ups and downs, when really I should be spending more time with my wife and doing with her what she loves...puzzles. Suree. Lol. I can see you pretending to concentrate on the puzzle while secretly looking at your phone. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_rules Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 As someone who checks in as infrequently as possible (which is hard to do with potential snow in the future), it’s amusing/bewildering to see the huge swings in modelology. 24-30hrs ago the risk was a sunny day in NY with a snowstorm in Georgia/the Carolinas because there is no blocking. A day later the models think the same storm could result in rain in upstate NY. We are just inviting stress and frustration by following weather forecasts for potential events that are many days away. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 12, 2022 Author Share Posted January 12, 2022 GEFS, lots of big hitters. Mean came west again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 12 GEFS 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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