Rd9108 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 11 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: I agree though, this is either east or west of the mtns, not up the spine Didn't Jan 94 come up the spine and slam us and you guys? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 note the 48hr trend on gfs. Stronger ULL causing stronger ridging out ahead of system linking up with HP to the north. Helping to push the tpv out faster north of ME Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Mauer refers to the ‘excellent’ German model today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: Didn't Jan 94 come up the spine and slam us and you guys? I mean I'm sure there are storms that have, but in most cases it's usually west or east due to friction from mtns Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 12, 2022 Author Share Posted January 12, 2022 GEFS coming way west compared to last run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, rochesterdave said: Mauer refers to the ‘excellent’ German model today. its so excellent that they don't even have scores on it. Never see the wpc or spc say, yea I'll take the icon over the euro. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 12, 2022 Author Share Posted January 12, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 I think the March 99 storm rode up the apps. But it was along a stalled front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 5 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: GEFS coming way west compared to last run. This is why i'm leery of reading too much into apparent discrepancies between op models and ensembles. How many times have we seen the ensembles move en masse with op models? Answer: A lot. This far out it makes sense to look at ensembles for threats but the fact that any op run is on "the fringe" of an ensemble suite doesn't give me all that much confidence that the ensemble is informative with regards to outcome. Watch - if/when NWP shifts further east with op runs - the ensemble will follow. Would it have told me anything? No. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 12, 2022 Author Share Posted January 12, 2022 hour 138 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, Syrmax said: This is why i'm leery of reading too much into apparent discrepancies between op models and ensembles. How many times have we seen the ensembles move en masse with op models? This far out it makes sense to look at ensembles for threats but the fact that any op run is on "the fringe" of an ensemble suite doesn't give me all that much confidence that the ensemble is informative with regards to outcome. Watch - if/when NWP shifts further east with op runs - the ensemble will follow. yea they have a follow the leader mentality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 12, 2022 Author Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, Syrmax said: This is why i'm leery of reading too much into apparent discrepancies between op models and ensembles. How many times have we seen the ensembles move en masse with op models? This far out it makes sense to look at ensembles for threats but the fact that any op run is on "the fringe" of an ensemble suite doesn't give me all that much confidence that the ensemble is informative with regards to outcome. Watch - if/when NWP shifts further east with op runs - the ensemble will follow. Until the Euro hops on board I think this is sliding SE of WNY, I think Central/Eastern NY do well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 12, 2022 Author Share Posted January 12, 2022 GEM followed the NW trend 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said: Until the Euro hops on board I think this is sliding SE of WNY, I think Central/Eastern NY do well. Yeah, its Wed 00Z. I won't take this thing too seriously until Friday 00Z/12Z. I'm expecting the usual model waffling to show its face again. Though - there is reasonable consistency the last couple/few cycles among the major model suites. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 i haven't looked, are the NYC/NE/MidAtl Forums imploding? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 More GEFS pics. Still alot of misses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 12, 2022 Author Share Posted January 12, 2022 UK is a coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Man, a lot of PTSD vibes up in here. I’m not used to being the positive one. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 9 minutes ago, Syrmax said: i haven't looked, are the NYC/NE/MidAtl Forums imploding? They are holding tough since its 6 days out. You know, you never want to be in the sweetspot etc.. etc.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 When I'm on Long Island and East Coast storms went inland I dreaded that ; even when it started as snow watching that rain/snow line climb up to the south shore of Long Island was always painful If next week's coastal indeed goes west of NYC I will be so intrigued to see how that plays out up here In the meantime minus 10 lows in a few days, wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 State College just to the south has already issued a HWO for all of C PA 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Yowzer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolMikeWx Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Being the Eastern NY / downstate guy, I would be happy either way this goes as long as it isn't a complete miss. A lot of the runs bring it way west which would mean a snow to rain like @sfericwas talking about. If its hugging the cost, we get dumped on but our friends out west get nearly nothing. Hopefully it comes out in the middle. Since I'll be upstate on the hill for this, hopefully it's enough for a good amount of fresh powder Monday. We deal with that damn rain/snow line like how you upstate guys deal with missing out on coastal stuff a lot so I feel everyone pain. 6 days out but I am a green positive weenie 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Canadian Ensembles gonna be shifting west this run. See what the spread looks like shortly. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Cmc ensembles shift the mean track over 100 miles W this run. Pretty much right up I95 to LI and into SNE. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, BGM Blizzard said: Cmc ensembles shift the mean track over 100 miles W this run. Pretty much right up I95 to LI and into SNE. That's a lot of ens hits for CNY/WNY, something like 15/20. My gut tells me this ends up further east but maybe i've been groomed by the last decade + of anomalous results with SNE jacking. Two more days of modelology to go through. Sigh. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Euro has init. Think we need a @tombo82685 pbp for old time sake. Back in the day when Euro data was hard to come by, I remember gathering around the radio in the PHL metro thread for the legendary Tombo pbp. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Looked like the northern stream might be delayed this run compared to 12z but still gonna be a big hit again for C-E-N NY... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Kuchera crack 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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