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Upstate/Eastern New York-Pattern Change Vs Tughill Curse?


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5 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

GEFS coming way west compared to last run.

This is why i'm leery of reading too much into apparent discrepancies between op models and ensembles.   How many times have we seen the ensembles move en masse with op models?  Answer: A lot.  This far out it makes sense to look at ensembles for threats but the fact that any op run is on "the fringe" of an ensemble suite doesn't give me all that much confidence that the ensemble is informative with regards to outcome.  Watch - if/when NWP shifts further east with op runs - the ensemble will follow.   Would it have told me anything? No.

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Just now, Syrmax said:

This is why i'm leery of reading too much into apparent discrepancies between op models and ensembles.   How many times have we seen the ensembles move en masse with op models?  This far out it makes sense to look at ensembles for threats but the fact that any op run is on "the fringe" of an ensemble suite doesn't give me all that much confidence that the ensemble is informative with regards to outcome.  Watch - if/when NWP shifts further east with op runs - the ensemble will follow.  

yea they have a follow the leader mentality. 

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1 minute ago, Syrmax said:

This is why i'm leery of reading too much into apparent discrepancies between op models and ensembles.   How many times have we seen the ensembles move en masse with op models?  This far out it makes sense to look at ensembles for threats but the fact that any op run is on "the fringe" of an ensemble suite doesn't give me all that much confidence that the ensemble is informative with regards to outcome.  Watch - if/when NWP shifts further east with op runs - the ensemble will follow.  

Until the Euro hops on board I think this is sliding SE of WNY, I think Central/Eastern NY do well.

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1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Until the Euro hops on board I think this is sliding SE of WNY, I think Central/Eastern NY do well.

Yeah, its Wed 00Z.  I won't take this thing too seriously until Friday 00Z/12Z.  I'm expecting the usual model waffling to show its face again.  Though - there is reasonable consistency the last couple/few cycles among the major model suites.  

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When I'm on Long Island and East Coast storms went inland I dreaded that ; even when it started as snow watching that rain/snow line climb up to the south shore of Long Island was always painful

 

If next week's coastal indeed goes west of NYC I will be so intrigued to see how that plays out up here

In the meantime minus 10 lows in a few days, wow

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Being the Eastern NY / downstate guy, I would be happy either way this goes as long as it isn't a complete miss.

A lot of the runs bring it way west which would mean a snow to rain like @sfericwas talking about. If its hugging the cost, we get dumped on but our friends out west get nearly nothing. Hopefully it comes out in the middle. Since I'll be upstate on the hill for this, hopefully it's enough for a good amount of fresh powder Monday. We deal with that damn rain/snow line like how you upstate guys deal with missing out on coastal stuff a lot so I feel everyone pain.

6 days out but I am a green positive weenie :rolleyes:

 

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Just now, BGM Blizzard said:

Cmc ensembles shift the mean track over 100 miles W this run. Pretty much right up I95 to LI and into SNE.

cmc-ensemble-all-avg-ne-mslp_with_low_locs-2431600.thumb.png.6cb73b2e8b34685fab6112ca6825410e.pngcmc-ensemble-all-avg-ne-t850_mslp_prcp6hr-2431600.thumb.png.013943fe39118ede9875bd5c5bb5fee8.pngcmc-ensemble-all-avg-ne-snow_total_multimember_panel-2496400.thumb.png.fa7a743266583e3e2f64aab352a69a29.png 

 

That's a lot of ens hits for CNY/WNY, something like 15/20.  My gut tells me this ends up further east but maybe i've been groomed by the last decade + of anomalous results with SNE jacking.  Two more days of modelology to go through.  Sigh.

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