BuffaloWeather Posted January 11, 2022 Author Share Posted January 11, 2022 Good luck to mets on this one too. Northern stream and southern stream vorts. All about timing, the closer they are the farther NW it goes, farther away the farther SE it goes. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Giants fire judge!!! Yeah I know wrong thread lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 11 minutes ago, tim123 said: Ok it can stop going west. And move east a touch. Lol. If this ends up cutting i will shit. We need modeling to cut too far west so that it can jog back east! #Modelology 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 11, 2022 Author Share Posted January 11, 2022 Tonight’s sunset was crazy. Lots of icebergs already in the lake 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said: Tonight’s sunset was crazy. Lots of icebergs already in the lake Red Sky at Night, Sailors delight. Red Sky in morn' weenies be warn'd 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 1 minute ago, wolfie09 said: All or nothing. Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 2 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: That's about 3 of 20 members supporting the op GFS. Not exactly inspiring. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 7 minutes ago, Syrmax said: That's about 3 of 20 members supporting the op GFS. Not exactly inspiring. It’s 144 hours out. I’d take OP at this range. Especially when it’s 2 in a row and backed up by the other two big models. I feel pretty good. Confident? No. But pretty hopeful there’s going to be something interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 11, 2022 Author Share Posted January 11, 2022 Definitely a trend the last 6 runs of GFS. However the mean is still way SE, there a few really NW ones that are throwing off the mean. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 I’d give my remaining nut 2 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 11, 2022 Author Share Posted January 11, 2022 The vort responsible for this storm is still just east of Russia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 11, 2022 Author Share Posted January 11, 2022 No chance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Our LP is just North of Montana at 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 17 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Definitely a trend the last 6 runs of GFS. However the mean is still way SE, there a few really NW ones that are throwing off the mean. What's interesting is not out west so much as downstream evolution. The ridge out western CONUS is pretty much depicted same way in last 4 runs...downstream a different story with how the lead system gets handled. Something to look at. One thing is certain..this is gonna be a long rest of week... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Revracer800 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 40 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Giants fire judge!!! Yeah I know wrong thread lol About time lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 16 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: No chance Stamped for posterity. Lol 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Wolfie, you better not of turned this into a sports thread 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geez150 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 4 hours ago, BGM Blizzard said: kuchera porn Just take my money now! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geez150 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 30 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: I’d give my remaining nut Thanks for being a team player Dave, I guess I will offer mine up for the next one lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 3 minutes ago, Geez150 said: Thanks for being a team player Dave, I guess I will offer mine up for the next one lol I’ll be out. So thanks. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 As already posted, slight shift W in the GEFS but the mean is still well east of the Op. Anything is possible. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 18z Euro run just ended. Not sure can really extrapolate much without more frames, but here's the H500 compare to 12z/H96. Looks fairly similar to 12z to my untrained eye. 18z EPS out shortly to 144 hours. 18z 12z 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 hour ago, BGM Blizzard said: As already posted, slight shift W in the GEFS but the mean is still well east of the Op. Anything is possible. 5/20 hits, better than 3/20 on 12Z. A couple others could be hits but their timing might be off. IMO the next several runs of the various ensembles will tip the hand as to whether all the GFS/EC/CMC op runs are western outliers or are onto something. The op mods are supposed to be more skilled. The fact that the usual suspects (JMA/NAVGEM/UKMET) are out to sea vs the others makes sense from a typical model bias standpoint, FWIW. Edit: Ukie 12Z not out to sea, just slower than GFS, has a 986mb low going over Caoe Hatteras at 144h. (GFS is inland from HAT and sooner). No idea what Ukie does after that but...it has a vertically stacked low at the base of a negatively tilted trough. Hard to see that riding out ENE over the BM. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 These next few runs will be huge. I know I won’t be the only one staying up for the Euro tonight. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Only chance that storm has for our area is if that northern stream phases in. If it misses that it’s a fish storm or i95 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: Only chance that storm has for our area is if that northern stream phases in. If it misses that it’s a fish storm or i95 Yep. I think this one's gonna be too far off the coast for us. The trough isn't in the right spot..and there hasn't been a trough in the right spot for years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 18z eps shifted a bit E. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 3 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Yep. I think this one's gonna be too far off the coast for us. The trough isn't in the right spot..and there hasn't been a trough in the right spot for years. Yea, the trough cutting from sw to northeast correlates to a huge positive tilted trough in east which argues for south and offshore. The northern stream energy is the wild card phase that would yank this north. The whole setup screams cutoff low that scoots under massive HP to the north 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 12, 2022 Author Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, tombo82685 said: Yea, the trough cutting from sw to northeast correlates to a huge positive tilted trough in east which argues for south and offshore. The northern stream energy is the wild card phase that would yank this north. The whole setup screams cutoff low that scoots under massive HP to the north Yep, cold and dry the worst winter pattern. Lots would have to change in order to get anything good here. Very rarely do you see cold and dry without the lakes firing up. This weekends arctic outbreak we see below zero temps with zero precipitation, talk about boring. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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