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Upstate/Eastern New York-Pattern Change Vs Tughill Curse?


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7 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Then it has a backup system to refresh everything. Could be a very snowy week...please!

Euro/CMC had a back to back solution a couple days ago then lost it all S&E. Now it looks like it's back. This is good. Too bad it's almost a week out.  Thinking Thurs/Friday runs will be huge to see if NWP stabilizes on any consesus. Saturday runs could be the most important ones of our lives. ;)

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17 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Then it has a backup system to refresh everything. Could be a very snowy week...please!

I just re-tallyed my data, up to 29.6" for the season.  SizzleCock (KSYR) is at 22.1"   You are probably closer to my number or even a touch higher.  We're still well below normal but the gap is closing...dusting by dusting...

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4 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said:

12z EPS...

Like the rest of the 12z, night and day difference compared to 0z runs.

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-ne-mslp_with_low_locs-2420800.thumb.png.c53d5f5dafe1ba87fd99f79ccb25f0d5.png1404651054_ecmwf-ensemble-avg-ne-snow_total_multimember_panel_ecmwf_a-2507200(1).thumb.png.5f277cc9f6d9d4889ad9769f81c95a45.png935074427_ecmwf-ensemble-avg-ne-snow_total_multimember_panel_ecmwf_b-2507200(1).thumb.png.c4ee3c32cc33aefb1598177084d07434.png

The big swings the past, I'll say, 2+ days are concerning but not unusual. We want to see the op and ensembles start converging on a roughly consistent scenario each 12hr cycle. I hate getting too wrapped up in every 6hr update as the SNR gets too high so I just try to evaluate on 12 hr runs.  I have to start looking at upper air maps and esp upstream to see if any of this makes sense. We know there will be an eastern trough, I wonder about the 50/50 low upstream.

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29 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

I just re-tallyed my data, up to 29.6" for the season.  SizzleCock (KSYR) is at 22.1"   You are probably closer to my number or even a touch higher.  We're still well below normal but the gap is closing...dusting by dusting...

Yeah, I have several more inches than you do, as my area of Baldwinsville has had some of the better bands this season. My snowfall totals for Sunday night and Monday night are very comparable to the "Liverpool 4.5 N" reports the past two nights. That's pretty close to my latitude and what I have observed. (I am on top of the hill near Budweiser. Total of about 7 or so inches since Sunday, give or take a bit. (The Baldwinsville 3.5 N I'm assuming is north Radisson, comparable to your latitude.)

Sunday night:
...Onondaga County...
Liverpool 4.5 N              2.4 in    0800 AM 01/10   43.17N/76.22W
1 NNE Bayberry               2.3 in    1019 PM 01/09   43.16N/76.21W
Liverpool 6.1 NNW            1.9 in    0600 AM 01/10   43.19N/76.25W
Brewerton 1.5 ESE            1.5 in    0800 AM 01/10   43.23N/76.11W
Clay 4.6 NW                  0.9 in    0550 AM 01/10   43.20N/76.26W
Baldwinsville 3.5 NE         0.9 in    0800 AM 01/10   43.20N/76.29W
Brewerton Lock 23            0.8 in    0700 AM 01/10   43.24N/76.20W

Monday night:

...Onondaga County...
Liverpool 4.5 N              6.1 in    0800 AM 01/11   COCORAHS
Brewerton Lock 23            5.3 in    0700 AM 01/11   COOP
Clay 4.6 NW                  5.2 in    0830 AM 01/11   COCORAHS
Baldwinsville 3.5 NE         5.1 in    0800 AM 01/11   COCORAHS
Camillus 1.0 W               4.6 in    0620 AM 01/11   COCORAHS
Syracuse 2.7 S               1.5 in    0730 AM 01/11   COCORAHS
Skaneateles 9.1 SE           0.9 in    0700 AM 01/11   COCORAHS
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20 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

I just re-tallyed my data, up to 29.6" for the season.  SizzleCock (KSYR) is at 22.1"   You are probably closer to my number or even a touch higher.  We're still well below normal but the gap is closing...dusting by dusting...

Me and @vortmaxare the lowest totals on the forum. I'm at 23.6" so far. About 50% of my normal to date. Only good event was that sneaky LES event back in December. If this one misses East I never want to hear @TugHillMattcomplain again. :P

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1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Me and @vortmaxare the lowest totals on the forum. I'm at 23.6" so far. About 50% of my normal to date. Only good event was that sneaky LES event back in December. If this one misses East I never want to hear @TugHillMattcomplain again. :P

Oh, for goodness sakes, I have barely complained recently. The only thing I have "gently complained" about (lol) is the rapid speed at which the snow has melted because it's all lake fluff. (Which hopefully changes next week!)

...and you're not even on the same level as vortmax. He has had like 8 inches the entire season.

#NocompassionforHamburg

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14 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

actually you would get as Tommy lost twice to you! It was hilarious on the manning cast a few weeks back where Peyton and Eli had Tom on and Eli was ribbing  him good. 

True, we did stop the Evil Empire x2, esp with the spectre of the "Perfect Season" hanging over everyone's heads. ;)

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18 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Me and @vortmaxare the lowest totals on the forum. I'm at 23.6" so far. About 50% of my normal to date. Only good event was that sneaky LES event back in December. If this one misses East I never want to hear @TugHillMattcomplain again. :P

To be fair I am guaranteed lowest totals on the forum. But I am also not up there with you guys and in the HV so :lol:

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9 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Yeah, I have several more inches than you do, as my area of Baldwinsville has had some of the better bands this season. My snowfall totals for Sunday night and Monday night are very comparable to the "Liverpool 4.5 N" reports the past two nights. That's pretty close to my latitude and what I have observed. (I am on top of the hill near Budweiser. Total of about 7 inches since Sunday, give or take a bit. (The Baldwinsville 3.5 N I'm assuming is north Radisson, comparable to your latitude.)

Sunday night:
...Onondaga County...
Liverpool 4.5 N              2.4 in    0800 AM 01/10   43.17N/76.22W
1 NNE Bayberry               2.3 in    1019 PM 01/09   43.16N/76.21W
Liverpool 6.1 NNW            1.9 in    0600 AM 01/10   43.19N/76.25W
Brewerton 1.5 ESE            1.5 in    0800 AM 01/10   43.23N/76.11W
Clay 4.6 NW                  0.9 in    0550 AM 01/10   43.20N/76.26W
Baldwinsville 3.5 NE         0.9 in    0800 AM 01/10   43.20N/76.29W
Brewerton Lock 23            0.8 in    0700 AM 01/10   43.24N/76.20W

Monday night:

...Onondaga County...
Liverpool 4.5 N              6.1 in    0800 AM 01/11   COCORAHS
Brewerton Lock 23            5.3 in    0700 AM 01/11   COOP
Clay 4.6 NW                  5.2 in    0830 AM 01/11   COCORAHS
Baldwinsville 3.5 NE         5.1 in    0800 AM 01/11   COCORAHS
Camillus 1.0 W               4.6 in    0620 AM 01/11   COCORAHS
Syracuse 2.7 S               1.5 in    0730 AM 01/11   COCORAHS
Skaneateles 9.1 SE           0.9 in    0700 AM 01/11   COCORAHS

Last night’s snow put me at 30.4 inches for the season so I’m right in line with the rest of you.  Brewerton Lock 23 is probably 5 miles west and north of me so it makes sense that they got a little more than me last night. 

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5 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

Lies.

 

3 minutes ago, CoolMikeWx said:

To be fair I am guaranteed lowest totals on the forum. But I am also not up there with you guys and in the HV so :lol:

That's right. Let the lies be exposed from the depths of the snowless hills of the far away lands. Tis a beautiful sound....

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