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Upstate/Eastern New York-Pattern Change Vs Tughill Curse?


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Normally on these threads we don’t speak about temps as a topic of conversation…however that’s going to change right now. The Euro output for temps next Tuesday-Wednesday look to be absolutely brutal If correct. Lows would approach -10’ at LOWER ELEVATIONS and -20/-30 in the normally colder higher elevations and valleys! Damn! 

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43 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

Normally on these threads we don’t speak about temps as a topic of conversation…however that’s going to change right now. The Euro output for temps next Tuesday-Wednesday look to be absolutely brutal If correct. Lows would approach -10’ at LOWER ELEVATIONS and -20/-30 in the normally colder higher elevations and valleys! Damn! 

easy pass, cold and dry patterns are my absolute least favorite.

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2 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

Agreed. However, if the PV is that close one would think there’s bound to be multiple S/W imbedded that are not yet detected 

Bills forecast, I'm going to freeze at the game. Definitely favors the Pats, Allens hands going to freeze.

Saturday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 3.
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21 minutes ago, 96blizz said:

6z EPS has a lot of tucked solutions for the 17/18th.  From another board so I didn’t lift and post. 

The 6/18z eps only goes out to 144. But you're right, def a noticeable shift to the west in the cluster. Extrapolated there would likely be more favorable solutions downstream than what was in the 0z spread.

0z

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-east-mslp_with_low_locs-2399200.thumb.png.e0790649cb2d3bac6a5a3e198fc774bc.png

6z

708491327_ecmwf-ensemble-avg-east-mslp_with_low_locs-2399200(1).thumb.png.bb39504e63ae083b1f9a013f654397b6.png

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12 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said:

The 6/18z eps only goes out to 144. But you're right, def a noticeable shift to the west in the cluster. Extrapolated there would likely be more favorable solutions downstream than what was in the 0z spread.

0z

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-east-mslp_with_low_locs-2399200.thumb.png.e0790649cb2d3bac6a5a3e198fc774bc.png

6z

708491327_ecmwf-ensemble-avg-east-mslp_with_low_locs-2399200(1).thumb.png.bb39504e63ae083b1f9a013f654397b6.png

Thx man. As always.
 

I never lift from here either. 

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59 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Bills forecast, I'm going to freeze at the game. Definitely favors the Pats, Allens hands going to freeze.

Saturday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 3.

I was at the Cleveland Monday night game about 10 years ago and the temp was the same. It didn’t mattter what I did as by the 4th it was just numbing. 

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16 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

I was at the Cleveland Monday night game about 10 years ago and the temp was the same. It didn’t mattter what I did as by the 4th it was just numbing. 

I'm dressing in my full winter hiking gear. Some people are not going to dress warm enough. The booze only helps so much.  

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My wife was complaining it was 9 degrees out this morning when she left with my son.

Only if she was up at the hill this weekend when it's going to be -10.

Slight dusting over night in HV which was odd. This weekend is starting to show some good potential for something, I am hoping it comes earlier than Monday though.

If that thing hugs the coast like the GFS is showing ....

I won't make it home Monday and guess I will be riding instead for a second day :lol:

image.png

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Hard to keep track of which model suite is caving to the other lately but Euro/GEM was showing a coast hugger for roughly Sunday a few 00Z runs ago and then lost it S&E, which was where GFS was. Now GFS creeping next coastal back N&W.  Interesting to see if Euro follows along or if GFS goes back out to sea with it.  To my unwashed eye the H500 panels of GFS have looked really good for New England and ENY, possibly CNY.  I think a lot depends on upstream blocking evolution, if any...

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Can't believe lake erie is still at 38 degrees after last nights cold. Going to be some ice developing by end of this weekend along the edges. Dry and cold is the worst as lake erie freezes pretty quick with temps in single digits. Once lake erie freezes I start cheering for warmth as the big dog LES has to wait another year. 

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