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Upstate/Eastern New York-Pattern Change Vs Tughill Curse?


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On 1/9/2022 at 12:20 PM, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

Wednesday?  
 

KBUF:

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A ridge of high pressure along the east coast will provide a dry start for the day Wednesday, with a southwesterly return flow also bringing warmer weather.

 

RGEM:

 

874DDBE1-99DA-45DB-A473-D717ACC29D95.gif

Wednesday is still holding my attention.  KBUF really does not seem overly interested but the RGEM keeps playing this up run after run.  Nothing impressive but wants to keep a lake band over BUF most of the day Wednesday.  Specs all look marginal at best but the fact the  RGEM is keeping this in play bears some watching!  

C643D4CC-8753-4109-8BB8-9299B1BFFABF.gif

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3 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

RGEM picking out sneaky event for Buffalo on Weds, temps are marginal. Not cold enough for lake effect, but cold enough for lake enhanced.

Spits out .90 of QPF, low ratios for Lake enhanced.

qpf_acc.us_ne.png

 

Hey, get those low ratio snows and then freeze them over at night. Our lake enhanced snowfall from yesterday was barely touched by the sun today.

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9 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said:

N and S stream phased in just in time to suck it in and brush the I81 corridor verbatim. Lots of phasing potential in the ensemble spreads.

gfs-deterministic-east-vort500_z500-2334400.thumb.png.70900b54ae4d80048ea8a8fbc1f53416.pnggfs-deterministic-east-vort500_z500-2377600.thumb.png.81af20e703247141a3e7b3593578ca61.pnggfs-deterministic-east-vort500_z500-2410000.thumb.png.1b54ea5e40887581fc831761d96093ea.png

That's a good look for a lot of folks.  Closed h500 contours south of this latitude just off the coast.  Euro was showing something similar a few runs ago. Then backed off.  More changes coming from models.

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