BuffaloWeather Posted January 9, 2022 Author Share Posted January 9, 2022 Let’s gooo division champs?!?? 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 Boom. Jamestown. But...this has more of a clipper vibe to it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 3 hours ago, rochesterdave said: I think it’s the most exciting time frame we’ve had since last February. I’ll eat my hat if we don’t score at least one big one in the next two weeks. And while I’m at it, BufWX was right on time with this pattern change. He was calling it well before Christmas. Great call. #timestomped Thinking ballcap or a classy Fedora? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 Parade of accumulating clippers on GFS especially this weekend. That’s the type of pattern where we nickel and fine our ash over a week or do to pretty healthy snowpack across all upstate…plus that COULD be a Bills home playoff game 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 Great pattern for south and south east of Ontario. If its true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 1 hour ago, Syrmax said: #timestomped Thinking ballcap or a classy Fedora? Something cakey 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 GFS is Suppression City now like the Euro. It's alllllll over the place! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolMikeWx Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 I don't mean to derail any conversation here but I wanted to thank everyone on this thread and the other upstate threads for being awesome and sharing all the knowledge. I've been sitting in the shadows waiting for my account approval; following this and some of the LES threads as I snowmobile Tug Hill and the OF areas quite a bit and of course I just love snow in general. I've been really been itching to ride and next Saturday to Monday will be the first of the season for me. I'm from the Hudson Valley area (Middletown) and absolutely love following and learning this stuff so thank you for making my winter that much more enjoyable. Good luck tonight through Tuesday to whoever hits the LES jackpot up there, hopefully (sorry southern guys) the hill gets some attention and hopefully we some decent white gold next weekend (maybe). Mike 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 Canadian and icon have a hit. Euro has storm over Georgia lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 2 hours ago, CoolMikeWx said: I don't mean to derail any conversation here but I wanted to thank everyone on this thread and the other upstate threads for being awesome and sharing all the knowledge. I've been sitting in the shadows waiting for my account approval; following this and some of the LES threads as I snowmobile Tug Hill and the OF areas quite a bit and of course I just love snow in general. I've been really been itching to ride and next Saturday to Monday will be the first of the season for me. I'm from the Hudson Valley area (Middletown) and absolutely love following and learning this stuff so thank you for making my winter that much more enjoyable. Good luck tonight through Tuesday to whoever hits the LES jackpot up there, hopefully (sorry southern guys) the hill gets some attention and hopefully we some decent white gold next weekend (maybe). Mike Welcome to the board! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 5 hours ago, tim123 said: Canadian and icon have a hit. Euro has storm over Georgia lol 00Z op GFS and Euro vomit-inducing runs. Let's hope this waffles back to something like what the Euro had a day ago. Would be a shame to waste 2 weeks of this pattern with just idiot clippers. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 0z eps 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 0z GEFS 0z Canadian Ensembles 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 10, 2022 Author Share Posted January 10, 2022 8 hours ago, CoolMikeWx said: I don't mean to derail any conversation here but I wanted to thank everyone on this thread and the other upstate threads for being awesome and sharing all the knowledge. I've been sitting in the shadows waiting for my account approval; following this and some of the LES threads as I snowmobile Tug Hill and the OF areas quite a bit and of course I just love snow in general. I've been really been itching to ride and next Saturday to Monday will be the first of the season for me. I'm from the Hudson Valley area (Middletown) and absolutely love following and learning this stuff so thank you for making my winter that much more enjoyable. Good luck tonight through Tuesday to whoever hits the LES jackpot up there, hopefully (sorry southern guys) the hill gets some attention and hopefully we some decent white gold next weekend (maybe). Mike Welcome to the board Mike! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 10, 2022 Author Share Posted January 10, 2022 Besides arctic front, next chance for Buf will be on Weds with some lake enhanced snow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 18 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Besides arctic front, next chance for Buf will be on Weds with some lake enhanced snow. Those ensembles are all over the place for the weekend. I think there are more misses than hits attm. Maybe that will change. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 10, 2022 Author Share Posted January 10, 2022 2 minutes ago, Syrmax said: Those ensembles are all over the place for the weekend. I think there are more misses than hits attm. Maybe that will change. Yeah 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 4 hours ago, Syrmax said: 00Z op GFS and Euro vomit-inducing runs. Let's hope this waffles back to something like what the Euro had a day ago. Would be a shame to waste 2 weeks of this pattern with just idiot clippers. Is there any type of synoptic pattern that produces for us these days? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 11 hours ago, CoolMikeWx said: I don't mean to derail any conversation here but I wanted to thank everyone on this thread and the other upstate threads for being awesome and sharing all the knowledge. I've been sitting in the shadows waiting for my account approval; following this and some of the LES threads as I snowmobile Tug Hill and the OF areas quite a bit and of course I just love snow in general. I've been really been itching to ride and next Saturday to Monday will be the first of the season for me. I'm from the Hudson Valley area (Middletown) and absolutely love following and learning this stuff so thank you for making my winter that much more enjoyable. Good luck tonight through Tuesday to whoever hits the LES jackpot up there, hopefully (sorry southern guys) the hill gets some attention and hopefully we some decent white gold next weekend (maybe). Mike Welcome, Mike! This is a fantastic group. It will be a pleasure having you join us and giving us updates from your neck of NY (and your trips). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 10, 2022 Author Share Posted January 10, 2022 It's crazy we went straight from cutter season to suppression season and no in between. We have the cold air now but just nothing to work with, about the worst you can expect given the cold off Erie. The cutters going south of us is what is really strange, that rarely happens. Usually with clippers you get lake enhanced in front and lake effect behind along with some synoptic moisture. Once you string 3-4 in a row you're having a good winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 Rgem has a little something at the end of its run but atm looking relatively weak and a quick hitter.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 Low confidence in a potential storm system over the weekend. Guidance is now tracking it through the Mid-Atlantic and then out to sea. Have lowered POPs dramatically with this update with just chance snow showers both days. Its quite possible that both days could be dry. Although, the 00Z/12 Canadian-NH guidance is still advertising the idea of widespread snow during this time period. So couldn`t completely remove the threat. Stay tuned, as things could again back the other way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 Looks like we lost the Canadian.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 I think I'm just ready for a "La Nada" winter...because these stupid La Ninas (and El Ninos) aren't producing... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolMikeWx Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 8 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: I think I'm just ready for a "La Nada" winter...because these stupid La Ninas (and El Ninos) aren't producing... I agree 100%. Not sure if you guys follow Judah at all but I love his Twitter updates and blog posts, i've learned a lot from him. Of course nothing is guaranteed for NY unfortunately. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geez150 Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 12 hours ago, CoolMikeWx said: I don't mean to derail any conversation here but I wanted to thank everyone on this thread and the other upstate threads for being awesome and sharing all the knowledge. I've been sitting in the shadows waiting for my account approval; following this and some of the LES threads as I snowmobile Tug Hill and the OF areas quite a bit and of course I just love snow in general. I've been really been itching to ride and next Saturday to Monday will be the first of the season for me. I'm from the Hudson Valley area (Middletown) and absolutely love following and learning this stuff so thank you for making my winter that much more enjoyable. Good luck tonight through Tuesday to whoever hits the LES jackpot up there, hopefully (sorry southern guys) the hill gets some attention and hopefully we some decent white gold next weekend (maybe). Mike From one snowmobiler to another welcome! Even though sometimes I don't understand the different weather lingo I personally like using this chat forum for guidance on an shot at upcoming snow. Seems the many knowledgeable guys on here have a great feel for winter weather and more often then not have it called for the good or the bad before the paid guys do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolMikeWx Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 26 minutes ago, Geez150 said: From one snowmobiler to another welcome! Even though sometimes I don't understand the different weather lingo I personally like using this chat forum for guidance on an shot at upcoming snow. Seems the many knowledgeable guys on here have a great feel for winter weather and more often then not have it called for the good or the bad before the paid guys do. Absolutely agree and thanks! I joke with my group that they keep me around because I'm the weather geek and know ahead of time whether the hill and surrounding areas are good and ready to ride. Truth is, I am super lucky to have you guys and my cousin for getting me into MET as a hobbyist at all. Fingers crossed this LES keeps playing out like it has been, really fun to watch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 Last couple model runs have been deflating to say the least. I remain hopeful that we pull out at least one big one in the next two weeks or so. It’s a great pattern. But it is tough to see the models roll out 10-15 days and not really give us anything but flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 12z ensemble runs for these first 2 systems thru Monday... EPS GEFS CMC 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 Surprising amounts of hits in there 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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