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Upstate/Eastern New York-Pattern Change Vs Tughill Curse?


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5 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

00Z EC...next weekend. Looks juicy AF!! Snowfall is 24H total at 192 hrs...10:1

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You beat me to it! Ha. I got woken up by sleet hitting the window, so figured I'd do a weather check. Chunky glaze on everything outside...very slight crust on top of the snow.

I saw that Euro run and am happy to see it's holding hands with the Canadian. Hopefully this will be a consistent, locked in system for next weekend!

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2 hours ago, tim123 said:

Looks like a great convergence zone on south shore. Nnw winds over lake wsw winds on land. May only last a couple hours but from Orleans county to wayne county could get 4 to 6 inches in a couple hours. 

IDK. I can’t remember the sweep ever giving us more than 1-2”. Not a fan of this set up for south shore. It’s gonna really fly and be windy too. Crazy for an hour. 

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43 minutes ago, 96blizz said:

This was the 0z Canadian for Sunday AM posterity. The GFS doesn’t see it but 2 out of 3 ain’t bad at this range.  With next weekend being a 3 day weekend for many, it would be fun!

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This gives me pause. The GFS has been the superior model to this point so far. Hopefully the CMC and Euro are in to something more substantial as I watch a good chunk of the 10” snows I received wash down the drain.

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32 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

This gives me pause. The GFS has been the superior model to this point so far. Hopefully the CMC and Euro are in to something more substantial as I watch a good chunk of the 10” snows I received wash down the drain.

Growing up in New Jersey, I’ve learned to have pause until the event is over. 

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1 hour ago, 96blizz said:

Growing up in New Jersey, I’ve learned to have pause until the event is over. 

Preach! 

I'm only mildly pessimistic for this week. ;)

EC and GEM/RGEM strutting around with their high heels and fishnets on at 00Z trying to lure in the weenies  ;)

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4 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

The low elevation of the lake plain and its connection to the torrent of warmth that moves up the west side of the Apps kills me. Low 40s out in Western NY while it's an Ice Storm 100s of miles to the SE.

How's your snowpack holding up? Mine has compacted to 6 or 7 inches.

Lucky to have 2” of absolute slop that’s going to turn into a glacier overnight. Will look absolutely putrid out until we can get some fresh on top 

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2 hours ago, Thinksnow18 said:

This gives me pause. The GFS has been the superior model to this point so far. Hopefully the CMC and Euro are in to something more substantial as I watch a good chunk of the 10” snows I received wash down the drain.

Uh...the GFS utterly puked on the coastal this last Friday.  The Euro verified from 6 days out almost to a T.  The GFS didnt correct until 48 hrs.

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5 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

Lucky to have 2” of absolute slop that’s going to turn into a glacier overnight. Will look absolutely putrid out until we can get some fresh on top 

Yuck. Wow, you had ten inches, right? That fluff gets obliterated quickly; especially with rising dewpoints, which I see are in the upper 30s there. :(

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30 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

The low elevation of the lake plain and its connection to the torrent of warmth that moves up the west side of the Apps kills me. Low 40s out in Western NY while it's an Ice Storm 100s of miles to the SE.

How's your snowpack holding up? Mine has compacted to 6 or 7 inches.

4.5" otg with .2" of ice covering it.

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1 hour ago, TugHillMatt said:

Yuck. Wow, you had ten inches, right? That fluff gets obliterated quickly; especially with rising dewpoints, which I see are in the upper 30s there. :(

I didn't even snowblow my driveway because I knew the warmup and rain were coming. It's all gone and I saved an hour of snowblowing. :lol:

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1 hour ago, TugHillMatt said:

Yuck. Wow, you had ten inches, right? That fluff gets obliterated quickly; especially with rising dewpoints, which I see are in the upper 30s there. :(

That 10” was really down to about 4-5 after 1 day or do with how much air was in it. It settled quickly and the ground beneath wasn’t completely frozen so I noticed it was  soft snow near the ground. Add it up and we subtracted a lot. 

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