sferic Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 5 hours ago, CNY_WX said: The official low between hourly readings at Syracuse was -2, the coldest in 2 years. Watertown got down to-26, the coldest reading in the nation. WOW !! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 Guys, I know obviously Syracuse and surrounding immediate towns get LES, but , and pardon the lack of background info, does the city of SYR itself get the " Lake effect Snow warnings" too? Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 28 minutes ago, sferic said: Guys, I know obviously Syracuse and surrounding immediate towns get LES, but , and pardon the lack of background info, does the city of SYR itself get the " Lake effect Snow warnings" too? Thanks! Yes, sometimes when bands are moving the city gets it also. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 27 minutes ago, sferic said: Guys, I know obviously Syracuse and surrounding immediate towns get LES, but , and pardon the lack of background info, does the city of SYR itself get the " Lake effect Snow warnings" too? Thanks! Yes, it happens. However, it's more common the further north you go in Onondaga county. We're more susceptible to get in on the solid band (for example, the one wolfie's going to get) as it swings south. The further south it goes, on a NW flow, the main band splits up into less intense multi-bands. The best Lake effect snow warning events for Syracuse are on the backside of lows that sit off the New England coast. But those have been rare the past several years with the patterns we've been in. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 4 hours ago, TugHillMatt said: I could see watches being issued for Onondaga and Oneida counties with this evening's update. Though, BGM doesn't tend to issue those. Wait a run, it'll end up mainly north of us. Virtually guaranteed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 1 minute ago, Syrmax said: Wait a run, it'll end up mainly north of us. Virtually guaranteed Historically, it seems these events still produce for us. Obviously nowhere near what Central Oswego county is going to get...but perhaps a few rounds that add up to that 6 to 12 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 2 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Yes, it happens. However, it's more common the further north you go in Onondaga county. We're more susceptible to get in on the solid band (for example, the one wolfie's going to get) as it swings south. The further south it goes, on a NW flow, the main band splits up into less intense multi-bands. The best Lake effect snow warning events for Syracuse are on the backside of lows that sit off the New England coast. But those have been rare the past several years with the patterns we've been in. Matt, So in theory, Cicero and Clay can get a LES Warning while Syracuse itself does not? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 Just now, sferic said: Matt, So in theory, Cicero and Clay can get a LES Warning while Syracuse itself does not? Most definitely. That is actually quite common when a Lake Effect Snow Warning is issued for the county. Often times, the NWS will specify "Highest Amounts North of the Thruway." When we hit warning amounts, often Syracuse city will come in with high-end advisory amounts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 10 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Historically, it seems these events still produce for us. Obviously nowhere near what Central Oswego county is going to get...but perhaps a few rounds that add up to that 6 to 12 inches. No way. KBUF usually has right idea on where the core of a L.O. band will be but the 4cast amts outside of that tend to be overdone. This will probably stay up near Pulaski, Mexico, Oswego. C Square the furthest south of 6"+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 2 minutes ago, Syrmax said: No way. KBUF usually has right idea on where the core of a L.O. band will be but the 4cast amts outside of that tend to be overdone. This will probably stay up near Pulaski, Mexico, Oswego. C Square the furthest south of 6"+. We will get our best shot as the band drops south Monday evening. As you call it, "Ye old broom" effect. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 2 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: We will get our best shot as the band drops south Monday evening. As you call it, "Ye old broom" effect. Yeah, 2-4" of sloppy seconds at best. These events annoy me bc so close yet no chance. Models always too far south. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 1 minute ago, TugHillMatt said: We will get our best shot as the band drops south Monday evening. As you call it, "Ye old broom" effect. Yes it most definitely will sweep off the lake.... However in these East West oriented bands, expected to get hung up in the Tug a little bit... Orienting itself from northeast to Southwest as it pushes off the lake. Models tend to move the band too quickly southward in these situations over land. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 1 hour ago, rochesterdave said: Great depiction of Rochester’s mini snowbelt out near Penfield. There’s a little elevation out that way that helps I think. I’ve always wanted to get a home in that area. Irondequoit Bay might also aid in snow production there. Also saw your post regarding the ‘convergence’ zone in the disco and totally agree with you. I am in walworth and can say every now and again. We get a foot plus from that convergence zone from bay. And being on east side radar sucks in Eastern Monroe and almost all of wayne county. Almost never see it on radar 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 5 minutes ago, LakeEffectKing said: Yes it most definitely will sweep off the lake.... However in these East West oriented bands, expected to get hung up in the Tug a little bit... Orienting itself from northeast to Southwest as it pushes off the lake. Models tend to move the band too quickly southward in these situations over land. Good point. Hopefully we can get a layer of ice on top of our snowpack tomorrow to preserve our snow and create a nice base for whatever falls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 Just now, TugHillMatt said: Good point. Hopefully we can get a layer of ice on top of our snowpack tomorrow to create a nice base for whatever falls. Well I'm guessing that anywhere south of Central Square and points south, get 2 to 4" as that band swings South. With probably a little bit more behind that, as the deep Arctic air settles in....and we get into a similar situation as we did late last night into this morning. Wolfie should be good for a couple feet. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 18 minutes ago, LakeEffectKing said: Well I'm guessing that anywhere south of Central Square and points south, get 2 to 4" as that band swings South. With probably a little bit more behind that, as the deep Arctic air settles in....and we get into a similar situation as we did late last night into this morning. Wolfie should be good for a couple feet. He’s all in on Wolfie’s locale. Consider it noted! Gotta say I agree, although the big ones sometimes get hung up a tad north. Kinda think the south shore gets the shaft on this one. The sweep is rarely as good as it’s modeled in my experience. The dry air that follows just kills us. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 Sometimes the sweep is to fast south on south shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 9, 2022 Author Share Posted January 9, 2022 The medium to long range is about the best you can ask for for Upstate. I mean look at this, ridging in the west and good NAO blocking with the PV north of Hudson Bay to provide consistent cold air. It doesn't get any better than that, especially for Ontario posters as in this type of pattern Lake Erie will be mainly frozen by start of February, we have about a month left of Lake effect potential off Erie. Off to play ice hockey, will be a fun next few weeks! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 5 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: He’s all in on Wolfie’s locale. Consider it noted! Gotta say I agree, although the big ones sometimes get hung up a tad north. Kinda think the south shore gets the shaft on this one. The sweep is rarely as good as it’s modeled in my experience. The dry air that follows just kills us. Yes...that is true...if it forms there...but this will start out south and move north, and if anything, imo, will jackpot a bit further south than what is being depicted by the Rgem...albeit by only 5- 8 miles. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: The medium to long range is about the best you can ask for for Upstate. I mean look at this, ridging in the west and good NAO blocking with the PV north of Hudson Bay to provide consistent cold air. It doesn't get any better than that, especially for Ontario posters as in this type of pattern Lake Erie will be mainly frozen by start of February, we have about a month left of Lake effect potential off Erie And for potential bombs off the EC, if this verifies. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 9, 2022 Author Share Posted January 9, 2022 1 minute ago, LakeEffectKing said: Yes...that is true...if it forms there...but this will start out south and move north, and if anything, imo, will jackpot a bit further south than what is being depicted by the Rgem...albeit by only 5- 8 miles. I agree with this, that's the only thing I'm worried about for Pulaski itself. The band always gets "stuck" up in redfield but sometimes the portion closer to the lake can slide south a few miles. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: The medium to long range is about the best you can ask for for Upstate. I mean look at this, ridging in the west and good NAO blocking with the PV north of Hudson Bay to provide consistent cold air. It doesn't get any better than that, especially for Ontario posters as in this type of pattern Lake Erie will be mainly frozen by start of February, we have about a month left of Lake effect potential off Erie If that doesn't produce a synoptic snowfall at some point, we might have to start questioning whether it's possible to get a snowstorm here with no taint. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 8 minutes ago, LakeEffectKing said: Yes...that is true...if it forms there...but this will start out south and move north, and if anything, imo, will jackpot a bit further south than what is being depicted by the Rgem...albeit by only 5- 8 miles. That's why I was thinking we could get 6 to 12 inches total by Tuesday. I just happened to check the updated "point and click" and here is it what it reads: Sunday Night Rain, snow, and freezing rain, becoming all snow after 9pm. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 16. West wind 13 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Little or no ice accumulation expected. New snow accumulation of around 4 inches. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 7 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: That's why I was thinking we could get 6 to 12 inches total by Tuesday. I just happened to check the updated "point and click" and here is it what it reads: Sunday Night Rain, snow, and freezing rain, becoming all snow after 9pm. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 16. West wind 13 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Little or no ice accumulation expected. New snow accumulation of around 4 inches. Yeah...you (and I) will get two doses as it appears in modeling... First, between 9pm and Midnight tomorrow night...Then again Monday eve. as the band sweeps through...then 12 hours of mood, pixie dust... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 1 hour ago, LakeEffectKing said: Well I'm guessing that anywhere south of Central Square and points south, get 2 to 4" as that band swings South. With probably a little bit more behind that, as the deep Arctic air settles in....and we get into a similar situation as we did late last night into this morning. Wolfie should be good for a couple feet. If it starts a bit south no. Onondaga trajectory could see 2-4" initially and then similar at the end if it moves south and falls off the lake as winds shift NW. So maybe we can bag 6" total but i agree we are likely to be spectating thru the heart of the event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 54 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: The medium to long range is about the best you can ask for for Upstate. I mean look at this, ridging in the west and good NAO blocking with the PV north of Hudson Bay to provide consistent cold air. It doesn't get any better than that, especially for Ontario posters as in this type of pattern Lake Erie will be mainly frozen by start of February, we have about a month left of Lake effect potential off Erie. Off to play ice hockey, will be a fun next few weeks! We score another LES event in the metro with that pattern. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 Beautiful 0z run of the Canadian. It has quite the event next weekend. Meanwhile, the GFS was a synoptic wasteland. lol It will be a tracking week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 Hi rez at 48 hours. Band moving quick south biut strongest frame as well. Thats got to be 2 to 4 inches a hour in that thing 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 14 minutes ago, tim123 said: Hi rez at 48 hours. Band moving quick south biut strongest frame as well. Thats got to be 2 to 4 inches a hour in that thing That multi-lake connection (combined with an arctic front)...one of the best for dumping on us south and ESE of the lake. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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