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Upstate/Eastern New York-Pattern Change Vs Tughill Curse?


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Just now, wolfie09 said:

Central square reported 9" but that's"public"..Spotter reported 7" 4 mile north.. If you want to see the difference a short distance can make, look at tuggies neck of the woods lol Co-op reported 5" and storm spotter nearly a foot..(1M north)..

Yup. Although there are two spotters here who are notoriously low. I am always like, "Where are they measuring?!" Bville is big area. I am guessing the lower totals were measured on the SW side towards Van Buren, Warners, and Village Green. My estimate is that most of the Bville area got 8 to 10 inches.

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14 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Whew! The latest 18z run of the HRRR is a weenie run for the N. Cuse weenies. The strong winds might hurt Wolfie and Blue Moon closer to the lake.

image.thumb.png.41d3553a7686428279b8535b84154a04.png

That has nothing to do with it TBH...It just keeps the band farther south..

Look at 18z Monday on the rgem vs Hrrr..

rgem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_54 (3).png

hrrr_ref_frzn_neus_48 (2).png

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3 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

That has nothing to do with it TBH...It just keeps the band farther south..

Look at 18z Monday on the rgem vs Hrrr..

rgem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_54 (3).png

hrrr_ref_frzn_neus_48 (2).png

Yeah the HRRR was WAY too far south for the Erie band that we just had. Had the bullseye from Dunkirk over my head and it landed up about 20-30 miles north of that. RGEM is best lake effect model in my opinion followed by the 3k NAM once your in close range (within 24-36 hours). I wouldn’t trust the HRRR at all for lake effect, I did and got burned badly (4” when it was forecasting 12-24” here consistently leading up to the event, before it finally caught on AFTER the event already started). 

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...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 7 PM EST
SUNDAY...
...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM SUNDAY TO 1 AM
EST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...For the Lake Effect Snow Warning, heavy lake effect snow
  expected. Total snow accumulations of around 2 feet in the most
  persistent lake snows. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph will
  produce blowing and drifting snow. For the Winter Weather
  Advisory, mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations
  of 1 to 3 inches and ice accumulations of around one tenth of
  an inch.

* WHERE...Oswego and Lewis counties. Heaviest lake effect snow
  will focus across northern Oswego and far southwest Lewis
  counties.

* WHEN...For the Lake Effect Snow Warning, from 7 PM Sunday to 1
  AM EST Tuesday. For the Winter Weather Advisory, from 6 AM to
  7 PM EST Sunday.


 

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1 hour ago, tim123 said:

Screenshot_20220108-155926_Samsung Internet.jpg

Great depiction of Rochester’s mini snowbelt out near Penfield. There’s a little elevation out that way that helps I think. I’ve always wanted to get a home in that area. Irondequoit Bay might also aid in snow production there. 
Also saw your post regarding the ‘convergence’ zone in the disco and totally agree with you. 

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