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Upstate/Eastern New York-Pattern Change Vs Tughill Curse?


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1 hour ago, LakeEffectKing said:

Ratios will be sky high late Sun. Night into Monday.

IF this locks in, 2' amounts should be easily obtainable from between Mexico/Pulaski to Adams and inland from there.

I received 2" more last night for an event total of just over 8"....not too shabby!

Can't wait for Northen Onondagea to get those amounts as the towns north of us do

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12 minutes ago, sferic said:

Yup, fine crystals indeed falling here too, driving to Clay later on today for shopping; great stores!

Yeah, rt 31 has a lot of retail these days. I live just north of there. I like my location, semi rural but a short drive to Rt 31 for the 3 trips to Home Depot when working on home projects.  ;)

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2 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

Yeah, rt 31 has a lot of retail these days. I live just north of there. I like my location, semi rural but a short drive to Rt 31 for the 3 trips to Home Depot when working on home projects.  ;)

I love the Friendly's there,  and The Olive Garden. There too is where I discovered Price Chopper only to realize there is one on Brewerton Road in Cicero

 

However glad to hear there is a Raymour and Flanigan since we're furnishing our home from scratch

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1 hour ago, DeltaT13 said:

I think .5 inch is when the trouble starts. Anything over an inch is massive damage. You’re throwing around big numbers there. 2.5 inches is complete and utter destruction and probably a 100 year or more event. 
 

Yeah I agree with this 1/2" of ice is quite a bit. 1" + is massive damage. We used to have a lot of ice storms growing up, I know most don't like them but they're my favorite. 

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Just now, BuffaloWeather said:

Yeah I agree with this 1/2" of ice is quite a bit. 1" + is massive damage. We used to have a lot of ice storms growing up, I know most don't like them but they're my favorite. 

They mean some serious $ for me on storm duty. Of course unending 16+ hr days get old real fast.

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9 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Once the rgem locks in , it's like a pitbull, it never lets go lol..Six straight runs crushing northern Oswego..

3k is a little south of the rgem but someone is going to get hit good either way..

 

snku_acc.us_ne - 2022-01-08T102249.218.png

snku_acc.us_ne - 2022-01-08T102233.463.png

Its close enough to start taking seriously. KBUF mentions 2'+ off Ontario. Can almost guarentee Carol gets 2' of snow off this. 

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27 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Once the rgem locks in , it's like a pitbull, it never lets go lol..Six straight runs crushing northern Oswego..

3k is a little south of the rgem but someone is going to get hit good either way..

 

snku_acc.us_ne - 2022-01-08T102249.218.png

snku_acc.us_ne - 2022-01-08T102233.463.png

And remember, even Kuchera way underestimated this past event.....I think by late Sun night through Monday,  the ratios will be similar...25-35:1...do the math....

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First double digit event of the season here in NW Onondaga yesterday. It could have been a warning rather than advisory, but the break in between two periods made it pretty manageable. 

6 inches in the morning, then a break in the afternoon, then an additional 4 inches last night for a total of 10 inches. I went for a nice long Jebwalk and could see the stars with snow still gently falling.

 

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Looks like us N. Cuse guys get, I am guessing, maybe 3 to 6 inches tomorrow night. Then the band moves north and pounds Wolfie and tombo on Monday. Then round two for the Cuse guys Monday night as the NW winds kick in. Rochester should get in on this too at times. 

Oh, how I would love for this one to come true:

image.thumb.png.a1c69041f20decd60432dd1891119018.png

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Just now, sferic said:

Darn, but that's the fun too how run to run things can shift.

 

Surprises work both ways too!

It brings us into the band a bit as it shifts back south. Just to prepare you...in events like this, the band could sit to your north for hours and hours while you agonizingly wait for a wind shift to push it south. Lake effect takes LOTS of patience.

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Just now, TugHillMatt said:

You called it a long time ago... It SUCKS at synoptic, but it is KING with lake effect. It amazes me how well it does.

The NAM was the best model for the last LES event off Erie, took RGEM a few runs to catch up to it. A combo of NAM/RGEM within 48 hours is usually a solid bet. 

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1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Tughill has jackpotted 2-3 times this winter so far, hes not allowed to complain for at least 2 weeks. 

Ha! If I came across as complaining this morning, my apologies. I was just making observations. I know we like to set boundaries for me though with my high snow expectations. Lol

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1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said:

The NAM was the best model for the last LES event off Erie, took RGEM a few runs to catch up to it. A combo of NAM/RGEM within 48 hours is usually a solid bet. 

I am assuming the 3K Nam. I could see that, but I think the Rgem does Lake Ontario snows the best.

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