tim123 Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 Monday teusday will look the part of artic. First call for monroe wayne county is 4 to 7 inches. Some really cold air as well. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 Rgem has us mostly as light snow on Sunday now...but whoa, check out the NAM! This would be nearly a half inch of freezing rain in the Syracuse area and ski towns of the Southern Tier. Perhaps it's some sleet..either way, it's probably well overdone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 38 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Rgem has us mostly as light snow on Sunday now...but whoa, check out the NAM! This would be nearly a half inch of freezing rain in the Syracuse area and ski towns of the Southern Tier. Perhaps it's some sleet..either way, it's probably well overdone. Bet it’s mistaking sleet. Even so, and people always get upset when I say this, 1/2” of frz rain isn’t much. You don’t get into trouble until you get .75-1”. Of course driving is a bitch on much, much less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 31 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Bet it’s mistaking sleet. Even so, and people always get upset when I say this, 1/2” of frz rain isn’t much. You don’t get into trouble until you get .75-1”. Of course driving is a bitch on much, much less. I disagree (not upset...lol). This is especially true if wind is involved. I recall several ice storms with around a quarter to half inch of freezing rain when I was growing up that caused damage...especially when wind was involved. It doesn't look like a great setup for sleet on Sunday, so I think it will be either rain, wet snow, or freezing rain. Local mets don't seem too impressed with Sunday or our lake effect possibilities for the beginning of the week. Hopefully we can get a bit more of a northerly component to the wind so the southern lakeshore and weenie snowbelt can get involved. Fulton is looking real good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 8, 2022 Author Share Posted January 8, 2022 Probably start posting here for now until another thread worthy event pops up. We will create individual threads for big LES/Synoptic events and post here for general weather discussion. Still looks good for wolf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 1 hour ago, TugHillMatt said: I disagree (not upset...lol). This is especially true if wind is involved. I recall several ice storms with around a quarter to half inch of freezing rain when I was growing up that caused damage...especially when wind was involved. It doesn't look like a great setup for sleet on Sunday, so I think it will be either rain, wet snow, or freezing rain. Local mets don't seem too impressed with Sunday or our lake effect possibilities for the beginning of the week. Hopefully we can get a bit more of a northerly component to the wind so the southern lakeshore and weenie snowbelt can get involved. Fulton is looking real good. Yeah. Every time I say that folks disagree. But Rochester has had like 3 major ice storms in my life and they all had 1.25-2.5” ice accretion. We’ve had several lesser ones with under 2/3” without any major impacts. I suppose wind would change that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 1 hour ago, rochesterdave said: Yeah. Every time I say that folks disagree. But Rochester has had like 3 major ice storms in my life and they all had 1.25-2.5” ice accretion. We’ve had several lesser ones with under 2/3” without any major impacts. I suppose wind would change that. .... And no thaw afterward, with snow piling on the ice covered branches/wires. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 By far the coldest morning of the season here and actually first time in the single digits. Down to 2 degrees here. Wondering if we hit 0 before temps start to rebound for the day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 Busting out the shorts and heading to our tropical airport location! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Revracer800 Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 1 hour ago, lakeeffectkid383 said: By far the coldest morning of the season here and actually first time in the single digits. Down to 2 degrees here. Wondering if we hit 0 before temps start to rebound for the day. I got 5 here in Hannibal brrrrrrr lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 Watch issued Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis- Including the cities of Oswego, Watertown, and Lowville 357 AM EST Sat Jan 8 2022 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations greater than a foot possible. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph. * WHERE...The Eastern Lake Ontario Region. * WHEN...From Sunday evening through late Monday night. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 Got down to -4° overnight, coldest of the season so far... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 -8.5 right now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 Lake Effect Snow Sunday night through Monday evening... Much colder air will move in Sunday night, with 850mb temperatures plummeting to around -15c by late Sunday evening. This is plenty cold enough to support a lake response, but moisture will initially be limited behind the cold front. However, this will change later Sunday night across Lake Ontario where most guidance shows a westerly flow with a Lake Superior/Lake Huron connection enhancing moisture. Then synoptic moisture increases as the trough digs across the region Monday before an arctic front moves through Monday night and shifts winds to the northwest. This is likely to produce significant snow accumulations across the Tug Hill and eastern Lake Ontario region. There`s a potential for this to be a major event with totals greater than two feet, however there remains uncertainty in wind direction which will determine exactly where the heavy snow falls. Model guidance is already showing the development of a strong lake effect band off Lake Ontario late Sunday night through Monday evening. This is supported by local analog composite charts for significant events east of Lake Ontario and CIPS analogs. Based on this have issued a Winter Storm Watch for the Eastern Lake Ontario region. It`s more marginal off Lake Erie, with less upstream moisture and a westerly flow not resulting in as long a fetch as it does across Lake Ontario. Even so, accumulating snows are likely, with advisory to warning amounts not out of the question across the Western Southern Tier and Boston Hills. Bitterly cold behind an Arctic Front Monday night and Tuesday... Good model agreement that an arctic front will drop southward across the area Monday night with 850mb temperatures dropping to around -25c. This will produce a burst of snows south of the lakes late Monday night into Tuesday morning with some accumulations possible. It also will bring in the coldest air mass so far this winter season with high temperatures struggling to reach the teens south of Lake Ontario with single digit highs across the North Country. This combined with a brisk northwesterly flow will result in wind chills of 15 to 25 below across the area. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 I bet they are riding the RGEM which has nearly 2" of precipitation (some rain/mix)..It does spread the love out a little more, starting out SE of the lake and then backing north.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 4 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: I bet they are riding the RGEM which has nearly 2" of precipitation (some rain/mix)..It does spread the love out a little more, starting out SE of the lake and then backing north.. Hopefully this is a case as you guys have told me that usually the band sets up a bit north of modeling when push comes to shove Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 Ratios will be sky high late Sun. Night into Monday. IF this locks in, 2' amounts should be easily obtainable from between Mexico/Pulaski to Adams and inland from there. I received 2" more last night for an event total of just over 8"....not too shabby! 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 10 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: Hopefully this is a case as you guys have told me that usually the band sets up a bit north of modeling when push comes to shove That seems to be less true with the rgem and more true with the higher Rez models, IE HRW - WRF guidance.. With LES you never know though lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 -21 with a WC of -36 in Watertown right now. Wow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 24 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: Hopefully this is a case as you guys have told me that usually the band sets up a bit north of modeling when push comes to shove Tombo, this might be your event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 4 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Tombo, this might be your event I'm hoping, but have a feeling I may be a tad north, we will see. Feel like Lowville needs a bit of southerly component to the wind. Better bets for @wolfie09 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 We did quite well with the lake effect yesterday and last night here in Skaneateles. Beautiful powder and perfect small flakes still falling. Finally looks like winter! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 8, 2022 Author Share Posted January 8, 2022 9 degrees in my car this morning, easy pass. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 7 hours ago, rochesterdave said: Yeah. Every time I say that folks disagree. But Rochester has had like 3 major ice storms in my life and they all had 1.25-2.5” ice accretion. We’ve had several lesser ones with under 2/3” without any major impacts. I suppose wind would change that. I think .5 inch is when the trouble starts. Anything over an inch is massive damage. You’re throwing around big numbers there. 2.5 inches is complete and utter destruction and probably a 100 year or more event. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 1991 was insane. Remember it well. 1 minute ago, DeltaT13 said: I think .5 inch is when the trouble starts. Anything over an inch is massive damage. You’re throwing around big numbers there. 2.5 inches is complete and utter destruction and probably a 100 year or more event. 1991 was incredible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 -3.4 this morning in Cicero, ouch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 8 minutes ago, sferic said: -3.4 this morning in Cicero, ouch "Tea Kettle Effect" snow attm here in Clay. Strictly speaking it's probably not tea kettle snow but similar. Clear sky, no wind, very fine crystals falling... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 12 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: I think .5 inch is when the trouble starts. Anything over an inch is massive damage. You’re throwing around big numbers there. 2.5 inches is complete and utter destruction and probably a 100 year or more event. This is true. We start seeing power line issues at around 0.5" ice accretion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 Didn’t make it to 0. “Only” dropped to 1 degree before warming began. Already up at 14 degrees now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 5 minutes ago, Syrmax said: "Tea Kettle Effect" snow attm here in Clay. Strictly speaking it's probably not tea kettle snow but similar. Clear sky, no wind, very fine crystals falling... Yup, fine crystals indeed falling here too, driving to Clay later on today for shopping; great stores! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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