rochesterdave Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 4 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Euro with a "glancing blow" Thursday/Friday.. Actually about what I’d hope for now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 Tonight/Tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 That would be ironic, leaving Cicero for the Catskills or Long Island if that verified, but a long ways out; now just looking forward to tomorrow into Monday for a couple inches of LES in Cicero Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 Kuchy 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 3 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Actually about what I’d hope for now These things almost always are more nw than forecasted. Depends on sharpness and tilt of trough coming in. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 1 minute ago, tim123 said: These things almost always are more nw than forecasted. Depends on sharpness and tilt of trough coming in. Bingo. In a very happy place as of now. Tomorrow will be brutal watching to the NW. I hate it here weather wise, except for the occasional dec 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 10 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Bingo. In a very happy place as of now. Tomorrow will be brutal watching to the NW. I hate it here weather wise, except for the occasional dec 2020 Are you in Hudson valley? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 3 minutes ago, tim123 said: Are you in Hudson valley? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 More of mowhawk valley? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 1 minute ago, tim123 said: More of mowhawk valley? Yeah, generally it sucks here but you can get lucky from a coastal hugger or CAD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 Just now, Ericjcrash said: Yeah, generally it sucks here but you can get lucky from a coastal hugger or CAD. Seasonal average is low 70"s. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 Bet you get the occasional monster squall band off ontario? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 EPS is tightening up for tomorrow. That area from BUF to central Wayne and points nw looks locked for 3-6. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 2 hours ago, sferic said: Now mainly living in Cicero I see first hand how quickly things can change and how fast a WWA can be hoisted and accumulating snow lines are difficult to nail down unlike Long Island. Next 2 weeks look promising here as i have canceled Catskill/ Long Island business until I get a good taste of Cicero weather Cameras setup now for timelapse and weather underground gave my PWS a badge for accurate data PWS https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KNYCICER31 Welcome back! Yep, as you can see...this area is always on the line whether it be lake effect snow line, rain/snow line, downsloping from the Tug line. For one of the snowiest cities in the country, it can be quite maddening how we get there. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 Oh, and I'm baaaaaaaaaaaaaack! Sizzlecuse was actually the "coolest" temperature on the whole trip back from PA. It was in the mid 50s the entire trip and by the time we came down the hills into the Cuse it dropped to the upper 40s. Latitude ftw for once! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 1, 2022 Author Share Posted January 1, 2022 @Thinksnow18 this should get you excited. He post bug kit to show depth of cold air, looks fantastic. from Tom Niziol Hey WNY'ers...yes, you will get some snow tonight into Sunday from a large scale (synoptic) system, but as they say on TV...wait there's more!! Looks like its setting up nicely for a lake-effect snow event Thursday into Friday off Lake Erie. Please note, its iWAAAAYY too early to get into the all-important details, but let's say if this pans out Buffalo gets hit hard Thursday into Thursday night then Southtowns Friday. Not long-lasting, starts in Buffalo area on about a 240-250 wind direction, then settles south on a 260-270 wind and finally wind shifts to WNW to drive band south. I included a GFS loop here to show the synoptic scale featutes and the 6-hr precipitation total which is a proxy for snowband location. I will include the 6-hr forecast soundings next at Buffalo to show the depth of the cold air and wind direction. I believe the times run at 6 hour intervals from Thursday at 1AM thru Friday at 7PM. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 Looking like a solid week for the Western NY crew. Enjoy! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 9 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: @Thinksnow18 this should get you excited. He post bug kit to show depth of cold air, looks fantastic. from Tom Niziol Hey WNY'ers...yes, you will get some snow tonight into Sunday from a large scale (synoptic) system, but as they say on TV...wait there's more!! Looks like its setting up nicely for a lake-effect snow event Thursday into Friday off Lake Erie. Please note, its iWAAAAYY too early to get into the all-important details, but let's say if this pans out Buffalo gets hit hard Thursday into Thursday night then Southtowns Friday. Not long-lasting, starts in Buffalo area on about a 240-250 wind direction, then settles south on a 260-270 wind and finally wind shifts to WNW to drive band south. I included a GFS loop here to show the synoptic scale featutes and the 6-hr precipitation total which is a proxy for snowband location. I will include the 6-hr forecast soundings next at Buffalo to show the depth of the cold air and wind direction. I believe the times run at 6 hour intervals from Thursday at 1AM thru Friday at 7PM. He's hit the New Years egg nog too strong! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 Whats a bug kit. Lmao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 Big slug of rain heading NE from Ohio. Soon, sand bags will be needed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 Niagara county may start as wintry precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 5 minutes ago, tim123 said: Whats a bug kit. Lmao Bufkit 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 10 minutes ago, tim123 said: Niagara county may start as wintry precip. Yes it’s 37 in Williamsville ATM 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 Cold front slowly working southeast into the region early this afternoon. Temperatures very gradually falling off behind the front with temperatures now in the upper 30s across portions of the Niagara Frontier. Cooler air coming in immediately behind the front causing a period of locally dense fog. Regional radars showing leading edge of incoming large area of steady rain starting to make its way into the western Southern Tier. Rain shield will continue to overspread the area from the southwest through the remainder of the afternoon with all areas south of Lake Ontario experiencing steady rain by early this evening. Low level cold air will continue to gradually seep southward into the area as we work into the early part of tonight. This will allow the rain change to a period of freezing rain. The change will start first over the Saint Lawrence Valley/North County and northern fringe of the Niagara Frontier this evening. As the cold air continues to make its way southward tonight, most areas will experience some mixed precipitation, including freezing rain. Most areas will then change to all snow by late tonight or early Sunday morning. Most areas will see less than a tenth of an inch of ice with some locally slightly higher amounts possible. Thermal profiles are cold enough Sunday, with 850 mb temperatures rapidly dropping down to near -10C, to support all snow. Snowfall amounts are only expected to be in the 1-3 inch range although localized higher amounts are possible, especially over higher terrain and areas where some lake enhancement occurs, especially along the south shore of Lake Ontario. Some limited northwest flow lake effect snow will start to get underway Sunday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 DP down to 39... Let's keep it going... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 Lol. What a dumb write up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 50 minutes ago, tim123 said: Bet you get the occasional monster squall band off ontario? Yeah, but usually briefly as it swings. Definitely get some good squalls occasionally. Could be worse obviously but kinda in no mans land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 Maybe the NWS is paying attention to surface temperatures? Not just clown maps..Hrrr starts the change over around 1z for western NY but it's not till 6/7z that the area is below freezing.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 1 minute ago, wolfie09 said: Maybe the NWS is paying attention to surface temperatures? Not just clown maps..Hrrr starts the change over around 1z for western NY but it's not till 6/7z that the area is below freezing.. Yeah. I think it’s going to be a nowcast event. Those already in the 30’s gotta be happy. Monroe county has a pretty good gradient going from 39-44, north to south. 5 can make a big difference 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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