Upstate/Eastern New York-Pattern Change Vs Tughill Curse?

[Syrmax]

1 hour ago, BGM Blizzard said:

2021 was 5th warmest at BGM. 

6/10 warmest happened in the past 15 years.

9/10 warmest happened from 1990-present.

Not good.

Better warmer than colder!

[LakeEffectKing]

If this T+240 panel verified on the 12z GGEM, extrapolated, it would be a huge hit, I'd imagine..

[LakeEffectKing]

Euro too....

[BuffaloWeather]

Looks like a brief warmup next weekend, ENS still all over the place with lots of run to run changes. The last few days of the GEFS get it really cold across the Great Lakes with a great pattern

 

 

[Ericjcrash]

9 minutes ago, LakeEffectKing said:

If this T+240 panel verified on the 12z GGEM, extrapolated, it would be a huge hit, I'd imagine..

We'll see how that materializes in the weeks to come.

[BuffaloWeather]

EPS

[tombo82685]

20 minutes ago, LakeEffectKing said:

If this T+240 panel verified on the 12z GGEM, extrapolated, it would be a huge hit, I'd imagine..

Have to watch those low hgts north of ME that can be a shearing mechanism with those pv streamers 

[BuffaloWeather]

A good setup for those south/southeast of Ontario. These really cold airmasses are not always good as they many times lack moisture. 

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
...Arctic blast with possible accumulating lake snows Monday and
Tuesday...

Highly amplified pattern will engulf the CONUS during this period
with a mid-level ridge over the Western U.S and a deep trough over
the Great Lakes region. Cold Canadian air will continue to pour in
across the eastern Great Lakes on Monday then an Arctic front
arrives late in the day. 12Z/07 guidance suggest that with the
Arctic front there could be a brief but intense band of snow with
the front. Behind the Arctic front, 850 hPa will plunge down to -22C
to -30C across the area by Tuesday morning. That said, as sfc temps
fall off wind chill values will too with values of -25F or lower
possible east of Lake Ontario  Monday night and early Tuesday
morning. With the Arctic airmass there will also likely be some
accumulating lake snows ESE of the lakes but limited due to the dry
airmass and shorter fetch with WNW flow.

After Tuesday, temps moderate fairly quickly as southwest flow
develops across the region. It`s possible on a southwest flow that
another plume of lake effect snow develops to the northeast of the
Lakes, but confidence at this point is low. It`s possible that the
incoming deep shortwave may provide too much of a southerly flow for
the lake bands of snow to form.

Thursday a weak alberta low will track near our region bringing
chances for widespread, but light snowfall.

Friday, another Arctic front approaches the region with increasing
chances for snow showers.

[rochesterdave]

46 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

EPS

Blockbuster pattern 

[BuffaloWeather]

7 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

Blockbuster pattern 

The last week of it would be, the rest is serviceable 

[rochesterdave]

1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said:

The last week of it would be, the rest is serviceable 

Yeah, Great blocking. It would be a great set up. 

[BuffaloWeather]

RGEM slames you wolf, has potential but I don't think it will last long enough. Still going to be some epic stuff at your place early next week.

[wolfie09]

Lol we'll see..I'm a bit worried about the winds as some guidance pushes the heavier snow farther inland..

Kbgm

A much colder airmass will follow the cold front Sunday night,
with lake effect snow likely setting up near the Thruway early
Sunday evening, then shifting north towards Oneida County later
in the night. This band may become rather persistent heading
into Monday.

 

Cold air and cyclonic flow will characterize the start of the
period Monday morning. Persistent west flow and strong CAA with
limited directional shear will likely keep lake effect focused
on parts of Oneida County through most of the day Monday. A weak
clipper disturbance will usher in even colder air later in the
day. As winds shift from the west to northwest, the lake effect
band will likely get pushed south towards the Thruway and
further south, gradually weakening and transitioning into NW
flow "streamers" by Tuesday morning (with some help from the
Finger Lakes).

High temperatures Monday afternoon will only climb a few
degrees warmer than Monday morning`s lows, and will tank Monday
night, with Tuesday morning`s lows in the single digits just
about everywhere (maybe +10F hanging on in the Wyoming Valley),
and below zero temps over much of NY east of I-81, and
especially over Oneida County, despite the persistent lake
effect band. The wind will be brisk as well, with Wind Chill
vales dropping into the -10 to -20 range across much of the area
Tuesday morning. Much of the day Tuesday will be cold, blustery,
cloudy, with light snow showers and/or flurries likely extending
far inland from the lakes, perhaps even into much of NE PA.

[wolfie09]

GFS is showing a decent event as well but continues to place it farther inland from the lakes.. Someone is gonna see something decent either way, as it appears now..

[CNY_WX]

I’ve been meaning to post this. It’s the front page of the Syracuse Post Standard from January 5, 1994. The previous day a coastal storm dropped 17.5 inches of snow on Syracuse. Although this might not seem like a lot by lake effect standards, 9.5 inches of this fell between noon and 2 PM causing chaos on the roads as businesses dismissed their employees early and cars became stuck as plows could not make their way through the parking lots major highways had become.  This resulted in new dismissal plans for future snowstorms. I also wanted to illustrate that Syracuse can get blasted by nor’easters. This storm was triggered by a negatively tilted H500 trough which transported waves of snow off the Atlantic Ocean into central New York. It seems that during the 90s we had a lot of these types of storms. Hopefully we will see storms like this in the future.

[wolfie09]

During the day on January 2nd, a storm system dove southeastward across the Front Range of the Rockies, reaching southeastern Texas late in the day.  As this storm moved eastward along the northwestern Gulf Coast early on January 3rd, a new storm system developed along the east coast of Florida.  These two storms combined into one storm near Georgia on the evening of January 3rd, then moved northeastward up the Atlantic Coast while rapidly intensifying.  The storm system reached Nova Scotia by the morning of January 5th.

[rochesterdave]

5 hours ago, Syrmax said:

Better warmer than colder!

Wrong answer

[Buffalo Bumble]

15 minutes ago, CNY_WX said:

I’ve been meaning to post this. It’s the front page of the Syracuse Post Standard from January 5, 1994. The previous day a coastal storm dropped 17.5 inches of snow on Syracuse. Although this might not seem like a lot by lake effect standards, 9.5 inches of this fell between noon and 2 PM causing chaos on the roads as businesses dismissed their employees early and cars became stuck as plows could not make their way through the parking lots major highways had become.  This resulted in new dismissal plans for future snowstorms. I also wanted to illustrate that Syracuse can get blasted by nor’easters. This storm was triggered by a negatively tilted H500 trough which transported waves of snow off the Atlantic Ocean into central New York. It seems that during the 90s we had a lot of these types of storms. Hopefully we will see storms like this in the future.

I remember this storm very well!  Was on college break in Weedsport at the time. Without a doubt it was the heaviest synoptic snow I’ve ever experienced. Only heavier snow I’ve been in, and it’s close, was a lake effect storm in Fulton. Don’t recall the year (around 2010) but rates were just unreal, 5”+/hr. In a battle of full fetch southwest flow event off Erie and triple lake connection off Ontario (I’ve experienced both) I give Ontario the nod. 

[champy]

53 minutes ago, Buffalo Bumble said:

I remember this storm very well!  Was on college break in Weedsport at the time. Without a doubt it was the heaviest synoptic snow I’ve ever experienced. Only heavier snow I’ve been in, and it’s close, was a lake effect storm in Fulton. Don’t recall the year (around 2010) but rates were just unreal, 5”+/hr. In a battle of full fetch southwest flow event off Erie and triple lake connection off Ontario (I’ve experienced both) I give Ontario the nod. 

Agree. I was out Cross county skiing with my dog for the 2 hours when this hit. My parents almost called 911 because they were worried I was lost. It was an amazing experience being out when literally 5" of snow falls in an hour 

[Ottawa Blizzard]

2 hours ago, CNY_WX said:

I’ve been meaning to post this. It’s the front page of the Syracuse Post Standard from January 5, 1994. The previous day a coastal storm dropped 17.5 inches of snow on Syracuse. Although this might not seem like a lot by lake effect standards, 9.5 inches of this fell between noon and 2 PM causing chaos on the roads as businesses dismissed their employees early and cars became stuck as plows could not make their way through the parking lots major highways had become.  This resulted in new dismissal plans for future snowstorms. I also wanted to illustrate that Syracuse can get blasted by nor’easters. This storm was triggered by a negatively tilted H500 trough which transported waves of snow off the Atlantic Ocean into central New York. It seems that during the 90s we had a lot of these types of storms. Hopefully we will see storms like this in the future.

I well remember the winter of 1994! Record cold across eastern North America. It was the coldest January in Toronto since 1920, and I believe Ottawa's coldest of the 20th century. 

[rochesterdave]

Just now, Ottawa Blizzard said:

I well remember the winter of 1994! Record cold across eastern North America. It was the coldest January in Toronto since 1920, and I believe Ottawa's coldest of the 20th century. 

Only time my parents pipes ever froze. Schools in Rochester was canceled for a week due to cold. 
All the while, I was spending a warm winter out in Montana. Crazy times. 

[rochesterdave]

Long way off but I think this is a watcher. 

[CNY_WX]

3 minutes ago, Ottawa Blizzard said:

I well remember the winter of 1994! Record cold across eastern North America. It was the coldest January in Toronto since 1920, and I believe Ottawa's coldest of the 20th century. 

You’re right. It was a couple of weeks after this storm that some of the coldest weather hit the northeast US and adjacent Canada. I was living in an older house in Little Falls in the Mohawk Valley and I stayed up one night listening to the furnace run. I believe it ran for 50 minutes and only shut down for 10 minutes in an hour. 

[tombo82685]

This area might not be the best for lake effect, but the snow retention and cold is pretty solid 

[TugHillMatt]

6 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

This area might not be the best for lake effect, but the snow retention and cold is pretty solid 

Indeed! For the winter that I lived on the Southern Tug, snow retention was so much better than most other places. The north side of the Tug has the worst retention in that area, as the south winds downslope and warm it quickly. Carthage to Copenhagen and sometimes Barnes Corners can lose snowpack pretty quickly.

[mississaugasnow]

6 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

The last week of it would be, the rest is serviceable 

Ill take it. Leaving for Florida January 12th for 10-14 days so coming back just in time. 

[BuffaloWeather]

Cassadaga got 16" today, Fulton got 13"

[Flying MXZ]

3” of snow down here today. Not all that much, but the first time I had to plow this winter!

[TugHillMatt]

3 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Cassadaga got 16" today, Fulton got 13"

What a cutoff to the north, as Blue Moon reported like an inch or so in Oswego.

[Ericjcrash]

Lol.