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Upstate/Eastern New York-Pattern Change Vs Tughill Curse?


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1 hour ago, wolfie09 said:

Well the pattern on the GFS looked as it good as it can for the lakes region..I counted about 5-6 N stream disturbances and a couple S Stream as well.. Trough after trough swinging through the entire run, we'll see how that goes lol

Reminds me of that pattern from February 2015.  Just wish we had a nice snowpack laid down to ride it out with. 

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3 hours ago, Ericjcrash said:

That's cool, but no snow. Maybe get a lingering streamer this weekend

Did you see the 18z GFS? It was chance after chance. Nothing huge but with 2 weeks of solid cold it was all snow and there are some details to work out in the long range but some are close to big systems.

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Updated BGM disco - looks like maybe convective snow squalls possible tomorrow:

In late morning-early afternoon, upper wave takes on a negative
tilt while pivoting through the area with shot of cold air
advection. There is some suggestion showing up in the models of
steep lapse rates/instability right at dendritic growth layer
between 3-8 kft, even outside of the main lake effect area. Snow
shower clusters, while not adding up to a lot of accumulation
overall, could still pack a punch and be squally generally for
counties along and west of I-81 in NY; possibly briefly into
far Northern Tier PA. These snow showers could result in rapid
changes in visibility and quick thin coatings of snow on roads.
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Suprise .8" from coastal this morning....

Looks like us folks SE of Ontario will be thrown some LES scraps today.

Max totals of 8-10" probably far W. Oswego Co., N. Cayuga Co., NW Onondaga Co. by midnight.

Should be in two waves....from 8-10 am (band falls off lakeshore) and then from 1pm- 8pm (band re-forms early afternoon) and slowly tapering overnight... should be a single band...with a couple smaller/lighter bands in Oswego and Wayne Cos. 

NWS @ SYR about 4-5"...and around 6-7" IMBY, Caz.

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2 hours ago, Ericjcrash said:

Another day, another inch. Improvement over the daily dusting.

About 0.8" at 8 a.m. here, could be about 1" now, which feels like a win already.  ;)

We picked up a heavy dusting from the synoptic fringe last night. Would have been a tough measurement call as to 0.1" or T.  Fortunately the lake has saved me from that excruciating dilemma. 

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Forecast as of now, obviously subject to change..

 

Sunday Night
Snow showers. Low around 17. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
Monday
Snow showers. High near 22. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
Monday Night
Snow showers likely, mainly before 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around -3. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
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3 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Yeah it will never happen because we don't get storm tracks like that anymore..lol

But it shows me all I need to know lol 

Winds out of the SE instead of NE (no downsloping) and backside winds westerly... Maybe one day just maybe lol

gfs_mslp_wind_neus_61 (1).png

gfs_mslp_wind_neus_62 (1).png

I am thinking Feb 1994 type deal?

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