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Upstate/Eastern New York-Pattern Change Vs Tughill Curse?


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Still an eternity till that Monday event and none of the globals really agree with each other..

GFS has some northern kinks near Ontario in an otherwise westerly flow, euro at the same time has more of a W-WSW flow..One keeps the strongest part of the band to the north and the other to the south lol Just another 100 model runs to go..

sfcwind_mslp.us_ne (42).png

sfcwind_mslp.us_ne (43).png

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3 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Still an eternity till that Monday event and none of the globals really agree with each other..

GFS has some northern kinks near Ontario in an otherwise westerly flow, euro at the same time has more of a W-WSW flow..One keeps the strongest part of the band to the north and the other to the south lol Just another 100 model runs to go..

sfcwind_mslp.us_ne (42).png

sfcwind_mslp.us_ne (43).png

You can see a bunch of shortwaves move through that will likely change the wind directions. It's the ideal pattern for Upstate for constant snows if the cold air being modeled comes with it.

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3 hours ago, TugHillMatt said:

Thanks, I think so too. Though, with the amount of burns and fails the past several years, one is bound to be skeptical. I could see it being a 6 to 12 inch event if we can get the moisture for enhancement.

Yeah, i can see that for @wolfie09 and his "people" but for us cursed flatlanders... you get paddy water.  DIrty VC get paddy water.  (Arcane Apocalypse Now reference).  ;)

 

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Newest update from BGM NWS. When did SW Onondaga become the snowbelt?! At least I am in the "Western" part. They're thinking a more conservative advisory.

Friday morning the coastal storm exits early stage right. The
low level flow shifts from north to northeast as the upper level
trough moves east of our region. A deep northwest flow sets up
during the afternoon into the evening. The incoming air mass
will be cold with high temperatures mostly in the 20s. The
moisture level drops below 10k feet midday but the 2 to 3k foot
dendrite zone stays at the top of the moisture level. Several
inches of snow is likely from Cayuga and Onondaga Counties
southeast to Madison, Chenango, and Cortland Counties. Western
and southern Onondaga county will get the most snow.
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BUF NWS for southern Lake Ontarioans:

Lake effect snow parameters become favorable for snow growth, with
equilibrium levels rising towards 8-9K feet, with ample moisture
located through the snow DGZ. The snow off Lake Erie may be more
multi banded and focused upon the Chautauqua Ridge, though a skinny
band of snow from an upstream connection to Lake Huron is possible
towards western Chautauqua County. The snowband off Lake Ontario
will likely be singular with an upstream connection possible to
Georgian Bay. This singular band will have the potential to yield
snowfall rates of at least an inch per hour off Lake Ontario.

A look at the upper air pattern, the position and height of a trough
at both 850 hPa and 500 hPa lies very close to events that have
brought warning criteria snow in the past southeast of Lake Ontario.
One of the drawbacks right now is wind direction. The band of snow
off Lake Ontario, starting near the southern Tug Hill early Friday
morning will quickly drop southward towards the southern Lake
Ontario shoreline once the upper level trough passes across the
region. However the deepening surface low now off the New England
coastline may draw this band of snow eastward some. If the band of
snow does oscillate, snowfall amounts will be much lower than if it
could lock on to one location. Off both lakes advisory level snows
are likely, with higher and more widespread snow totals off Lake
Ontario. For now will continue to mention this event in the HWO
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22 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Newest update from BGM NWS. When did SW Onondaga become the snowbelt?! At least I am in the "Western" part. They're thinking a more conservative advisory.

Friday morning the coastal storm exits early stage right. The
low level flow shifts from north to northeast as the upper level
trough moves east of our region. A deep northwest flow sets up
during the afternoon into the evening. The incoming air mass
will be cold with high temperatures mostly in the 20s. The
moisture level drops below 10k feet midday but the 2 to 3k foot
dendrite zone stays at the top of the moisture level. Several
inches of snow is likely from Cayuga and Onondaga Counties
southeast to Madison, Chenango, and Cortland Counties. Western
and southern Onondaga county will get the most snow.

Been like that quite often the past few winters.  I've sort of given up on even hoping for a favorable wind direction as even when we nominally get one, the band gets oriented just to our W and SW.  Or just to the north, as is more typical due to L.O. "shoreline effects" that ensure decent single bands only get in here as they get flushed south by a passing s/w and fall off the end of the lake.

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1 hour ago, TugHillMatt said:

BUF NWS for southern Lake Ontarioans:

Lake effect snow parameters become favorable for snow growth, with
equilibrium levels rising towards 8-9K feet, with ample moisture
located through the snow DGZ. The snow off Lake Erie may be more
multi banded and focused upon the Chautauqua Ridge, though a skinny
band of snow from an upstream connection to Lake Huron is possible
towards western Chautauqua County. The snowband off Lake Ontario
will likely be singular with an upstream connection possible to
Georgian Bay. This singular band will have the potential to yield
snowfall rates of at least an inch per hour off Lake Ontario.

A look at the upper air pattern, the position and height of a trough
at both 850 hPa and 500 hPa lies very close to events that have
brought warning criteria snow in the past southeast of Lake Ontario.
One of the drawbacks right now is wind direction. The band of snow
off Lake Ontario, starting near the southern Tug Hill early Friday
morning will quickly drop southward towards the southern Lake
Ontario shoreline once the upper level trough passes across the
region. However the deepening surface low now off the New England
coastline may draw this band of snow eastward some. If the band of
snow does oscillate, snowfall amounts will be much lower than if it
could lock on to one location. Off both lakes advisory level snows
are likely, with higher and more widespread snow totals off Lake
Ontario. For now will continue to mention this event in the HWO

Now the silly LP is going to steal my snow? Lol

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Can confirm, just had a brief  dusting of styrofoam snow here. #32 for the season. Amazingly, our 1/4" pack mostly survived today's micro torch with cloudy skies and low (but increasing) sun angle. It's down to a "T"  and barely hanging on, much like the rest of us in CNY.  Now we get to enjoy cold winds, subsidence, dry air, and a stray flurry the rest of the week. Hopefully the sun comes out at least.

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13 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

Can confirm, just had a brief  dusting of styrofoam snow here. #32 for the season. Amazingly, our 1/4" pack mostly survived today's micro torch with cloudy skies and low (but increasing) sun angle. It's down to a "T"  and barely hanging on, much like the rest of us in CNY.  Now we get to enjoy cold winds, subsidence, dry air, and a stray flurry the rest of the week. Hopefully the sun comes out at least.

Same here. I see the HRW models and the NAMs are showing the Friday lake effect snows across SOUTHERN Onondaga county. At least the Rgem has northern Onondaga, but the lake precip. looks weaker and weaker with every run. I give up.

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54 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

I'm not even looking to Monday and Tuesday. Looks like it's becoming another disappointment.

Models seem to again be going towards a SW Onondaga hit for tomorrow. I wonder when this 3 year crapfest will draw to a conclusion?

We are also wondering….when you’ll be moving back to Michigan…

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