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Upstate/Eastern New York-Pattern Change Vs Tughill Curse?


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12 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

According the New England forum, the 18Z EPS came west and look juiced. It looks like many have the Low sitting off the Massachusetts coast. Not sure that helps us too much...but that's usually a good spot for enhanced snows off the lakes (despite what BGM NWS says!)

Everything but the GFS has come NW - and some by quite a bit.  

As expected!

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1 minute ago, 96blizz said:

Everything but the GFS has come NW. a - and some by quite a bit.  
As expected!

Well, some of them were further NW yesterday, then went SE, and came back NW a bit. The Ukie and Euro went SE. Fortunately, the short range models are agreeing more on a NW track. The models are going to have to take a pretty big jump in order for us to get more than a very trivial 1 to 3 inch ordeal. 

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Just now, TugHillMatt said:

Well, some of them were further NW yesterday, then went SE, and came back NW a bit. The Ukie and Euro went SE. Fortunately, the short range models are agreeing more on a NW track. The models are going to have to take a pretty big jump in order for us to get more than a very trivial 1 to 3 inch ordeal. 

I have been watching mostly for the lake effect. The 18z Euro and EPS show it again along with the RGEM.

 I also think closer to the coast and we can get some region-wide lake enhanced mood snows on Friday AM. 

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37 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

RGEM and especially NAM really try to get it to snow here. Another shift from 06z to 12z that there was from 00z to 06z and I'd be in business. Grasping at straws.

namconus_ref_frzn_neus_41.png

The backside lake effect band could mean business if this keeps creeping closer to the coast…

 

6z RGEM

FACED6E4-9B51-4812-A8EB-B4CD91E3A034.png

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2 minutes ago, winter_rules said:

Some time over the years I heard that that new data is only incorporated into the models for the 0z and 12z runs.  Therefore, the 0z and 6z runs use the same data, as well as 12z and 18z.  Is that correct?

I think that changed like 10 years ago. All model runs have new data i believe.

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1 minute ago, winter_rules said:

Some time over the years I heard that that new data is only incorporated into the models for the 0z and 12z runs.  Therefore, the 0z and 6z runs use the same data, as well as 12z and 18z.  Is that correct?

Not really...there is a lot of new data that goes into the "off hour" runs...satellite,  bouy, ship, etc....just not balloons...

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BGM NWS: Here's to hoping...

The focus on Friday then turns to the cold air arriving on the
back side of the departing low pressure system. A cold westerly
flow will set up initially mid to late Friday morning and
trigger the beginning of lake effect snow from around Syracuse
to Utica and north into the southern Tug Hill. The overall flow
pattern will veer more toward the northwest later in the day
Friday and Friday night which will allow the lake band(s) to
shift to the south. There should be plenty of cold air available
with 850mb temps down to around -15 to -17 C, and a persistent
northwest wind with a potential upstream lake connection to keep
the lake effect band going into at least Friday evening and
possibly Friday night. There also may be a weak source of
moisture wrapping around the system off the coast to help
enhance the depth of the mixed layer feeding into central NY.
Snowfall rates late Fri and Fri evening could become high enough
for some significant accumulations. Will need to monitor the
potential for winter headlines during this time moving forward.
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17 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

From KBGM AFD for this evening:

...A quick dusting to half inch will be possible in any snow showers this
afternoon for those lucky enough to be impacted by one. ...

And here we are. Waiting for table scraps like a mooching dog.

I don't know why, but I found their use of the words "lucky enough" amusing. I think it's pretty clear they're finding this "pattern" ridiculous as well.

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11 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

From KBGM AFD for this evening:

...A quick dusting to half inch will be possible in any snow showers this
afternoon for those lucky enough to be impacted by one. ...

And here we are. Waiting for table scraps like a mooching dog.

You get nothing and you’ll like it!

I think that was posted before but it’s true for us. 

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6 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

From KBGM AFD for this evening:

...A quick dusting to half inch will be possible in any snow showers this
afternoon for those lucky enough to be impacted by one. ...

And here we are. Waiting for table scraps like a mooching dog.

Just the fact that they are mentioning “a dusting to half an inch” in CNY is sad.  That should happen most days in a decent winter. 

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3 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

I think you’re in a good spot for enhancement. Someone from Roc-Syr gets 4-8”. 

Thanks, I think so too. Though, with the amount of burns and fails the past several years, one is bound to be skeptical. I could see it being a 6 to 12 inch event if we can get the moisture for enhancement.

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Then a much colder airmass arrives Sunday Night, changing the
precipitation back over to snow. This will bring the potential for
more lake effect snow as cold air deepens across the region later
Monday and into Tuesday with 850mb temps down to -20C or even
colder. Lake snows will focus east of the lakes Monday, then shift
south/southeast of the lakes by Tuesday following the passage of an
arctic front. Cold air mass will support fluffy snow with ratios
20:1 or more possible. The timeframe will be limited, but this could
support another round of significant snow accumulations with more
lake effect headlines likely to be needed.

Behind this arctic front Tuesday will be cold, with  highs in the
mid teens across WNY and single digits east of Lake Ontario. A brisk
northerly wind accompanying this arctic front will bring wind chills
well below zero for much of the region Monday Night, Tuesday east of
Lake Ontario...and then again region wide later Tuesday evening.
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