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Upstate/Eastern New York-Pattern Change Vs Tughill Curse?


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16 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

Almost out of time, looks like a 95 special. What a week for the mid Atlantic. I've officially jumped off the ledge. 7 very dry degrees and places that have been around 70° this week will have had 2' within 6 days.

I think we could manage a fluffy couple of synoptic inches. 
 

the back side lake effect is more intriguing. 

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I have a feeling I won’t be putting too many miles on the snowmobile this year. Have a total of 8 inches on the season so far. We are too far east for meaningful les and look to be too for west for this upcoming storm. Hopefully things change and the storm ends up hugging. Before any one says trailer to the tug after this les event well that wont happen, I went once there in my life and will never go back. Almost got hit head on numerous times because people have to treat the trails like race tracks. Okay end of rant. I’m stepping back from the ledge now. 

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I jinxed this when I said optimistically last night this would be our best shot area-wide.

This is looking similar to last year where we finally got cold air and the track was suppressed to our south...this year might be waaaay south. @rochesterdaveYou might have to give both your nuts for us to get a bloody synoptic snowstorm around here.

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2 hours ago, Ericjcrash said:

Almost out of time, looks like a 95 special. What a week for the mid Atlantic. I've officially jumped off the ledge. 7 very dry degrees and places that have been around 70° this week will have had 2' within 6 days.

I'd wait before jumping since this hasn't even broken loose in the Pacific yet and wont be entirely onshore for another 24 hours or so. Given this is all northern stream and it's a fast flow, the typical lead time for models to resolve any initiation type errors early on is much shorter than usual... i.e. there could be significant last minute changes yet to come IMO. I still like the odds of the Bgm to Capital District area getting atleast a few to several inches.

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6 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

I see the Nam being the furthest NW as a good sign though. It tends to lead the way with NW shifts. So, we shall see...

Well the good news is at least the GooFuS shows some Lake Snow potential throughout the run.  Granted, probably not blockbuster stuff for anyone but enough for some to channel their inner Stockholm Syndrome and convince themselves its not that bad as 'at least we got something...'

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Just now, BGM Blizzard said:

I'd wait before jumping since this hasn't even broken loose in the Pacific yet and wont be entirely onshore for another 24 hours or so. Given this is all northern stream and it's a fast flow, the typical lead time for models to resolve any initiation type errors early on is much shorter than usual... i.e. there could be significant last minute changes yet to come IMO. I still like the odds of the Bgm to Capital District area getting atleast a few to several inches.

I agree 100 percent. Following the classic east coast snowstorm pattern.
 

Find it.

Lose it SE. 

Climb back NW. 

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1 minute ago, Syrmax said:

Well the good news is at least the GooFuS shows some Lake Snow potential throughout the run.  Granted, probably not blockbuster stuff for anyone but enough for some to channel their inner Stockholm Syndrome and convince themselves its not that bad as 'at least we got something...'

:) Almost all of the models are showing WNW lake snows at some point between Saturday and Tuesday. That is not surprising considering activity off to our east if the synoptics do miss us. So, yep, I think we will get several inches of snow at some point during that time. Perhaps cover the grass blades completely for the first time in weeks.

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BGM is now discussing the lake enhancement (or ocean enhancement?) I've been alluding to. @sferic@Syrmax

The low pressure system off the coast moves to the e/ne quickly
on Friday morning and the synoptic snow should end west to
east. However, behind the departing system another punch of cold
Canadian air will drop south through the region and bring with
it more lake effect snow showers into central NY. There could be
significant snowfall accumulations with this lake event as the
moisture from the coastal low wraps around the back side and
aids in the available moisture for LES. This cold air mass will
keep temperatures on Friday in the 20s for much of the region.
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17 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

:) Almost all of the models are showing WNW lake snows at some point between Saturday and Tuesday. That is not surprising considering activity off to our east if the synoptics do miss us. So, yep, I think we will get several inches of snow at some point during that time. Perhaps cover the grass blades completely for the first time in weeks.

It could be worse...you could be someone attempting to  drive through I-95 in VA and being so unaware that you thought a foot of snow wouldn't Bollocks up the works down there.  And then complain about VA DOT.  Some of the quotes from stranded motorists are priceless.

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Just now, TugHillMatt said:

I was thinking that as well! They're usually quite conservative when it comes to snowfall maps days out, so that's a bit surprising.

It’s so classic. I know I’ve posted my guidelines here before but when the storm is in sparse regions it loses it SE. when it gets close to land it starts to climb back to where it was 2 or 3 days prior. It happens so often I wrote about it!  

It doesn’t always work of course - but it wouldn’t shock me one iota if this ends up looking like the Euro from two days ago. Hell, the GFS is about 800 miles NW from 3 runs ago!  

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Like this…  I wrote the full article 5 years ago…

Phase 4: The Weenie Suicide Phase, The Mid Range

This is the phase that happens every time. Every. Single. Time. But it’s just as painful for all of us. Every model has shown our bomb by this time – and then every single model loses it out to sea – seemingly all at the same time! How? Why? What life choices could I have made differently so this didn’t happen? Why do cutters always cut? F*ck the Midwest. What good is snow for the ocean and fish? The GGEM sucks. The GFS is garbage. The Euro is NOT the same since it’s upgrade. This is the phase when you’ll get to learn all about the models of the world – our very own “Weenie Model Universe” contest. There’s a French Model; German; Korean; Japanese; and a Tanzanian. These get yanked out from places on the internet that will probably freeze your computer and offer you real porn (but you X out of that because you’d rather look at the model than that in case it shows our bomb again). Remember this: In the Mid Range, the JMA will stay amped; the NAVGEM will show a couple of bombs; the GFS will be so stubborn you want to bomb NCEP; and the Euro will likely stay fairly consistent with it’s solution. It’s also at this point some knucklehead starts posting the long range NAM, SREFs and RGEM – even though it’s like driving to work with Stevie Wonder at the wheel. You may get there, but your odds aren’t very good. Many will exclaim that they give up but we all know you’ll be there at every model cycle. Spirits are down, relationships with spouses are on the fritz, drinking picks up and children are neglected – until…

 

Phase 5: The Short Range and the NW Trends

Despite all of the heartache leading up to this point, this always happens. ALWAYS. The storm you saw at 240 on the Euro and on all the models at the Mid Range at some point – starts its inevitable NW climb. It’s never an all out bomb again. No, no, no weenies – it’s a slow and gradual change. A ‘tick’ as most of you would say. “The GFS is a tick NW but, aloft, it should have been better.” “The Euro is NW again but there should be room for more movement our way given the look of H5.” “The Jet Streak on the NAM begs for a deformation band on top of our heads. Still time.” “The German ticked West along with the French” (really? Who gives a flying donkey f*ck). It’s at this point that you’re happy again. You kiss your wife or girlfriend. The air smells fresher. You say hi to all of your neighbors while walking the dog. You even pick up their dog’s sh*t. Then, the day/night before the storm, the short range models like the NAM and RGEM show an all out hit. Meanwhile, the level-headed professionals at the NWS and other outlets get the snot kicked out of them by weather forums around the world. “What are they doing!?!?!” “Can’t they see what the RGEM just did?” “People are going to die at the hands of the NWS. Blood. Yes, blood, is on their hands.” Weenies post snow maps. There are contests for gift cards. Donations to the boards per inch (all of a sudden, because it’s going to snow, weenie’s normally tight wallets are like mini ATM machines). It is the eve before the snowstorm that you’ve tracked so tirelessly for 10 days now and there is bound to be a ‘Weenie baby boom’ 9 months from this night – our next generation of trackers are smaller than a snowflake and look like microscopic tadpoles – but they’ll be on these boards soon enough and neglecting to read this sage advice: Something is about to happen overnight….

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14 minutes ago, 96blizz said:

It’s so classic. I know I’ve posted my guidelines here before but when the storm is in sparse regions it loses it SE. when it gets close to land it starts to climb back to where it was 2 or 3 days prior. It happens so often I wrote about it!  

It doesn’t always work of course - but it wouldn’t shock me one iota if this ends up looking like the Euro from two days ago. Hell, the GFS is about 800 miles NW from 3 runs ago!  

Yeah, I saw your posting about that, and agree. That very often happens. It just seems to doesn't often seem to happen when WE want it to! :P  It seems to happen more often with cutters...or maybe it just feels that way because that's mostly what we have had?

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17 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

It could be worse...you could be someone attempting to  drive through I-95 in VA and being so unaware that you thought a foot of snow wouldn't Bollocks up the works down there.  And then complain about VA DOT.  Some of the quotes from stranded motorists are priceless.

The American sickness of it is ALWAYS "somebody else's fault." It's so sad and disgusting to me. Can we ever just accept and own up that we make dumb choices or WE are RESPONSIBLE? Sorry, OT, but not really. lol

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Buffalo just cares about lake snows lol

It will get a little more complicated across our region Thursday
night...as a southern stream storm system will track from the
Carolinas to the Mid Atlantic coast. The northern portion of the
associated pcpn shield will likely extend across at least parts of
our forecast area...while a west to southwest flow will maintain
lake snows. Likely pops will be in place for most of the region with
cat pops for the aforementioned lake snow areas.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Negatively tilted upper level trough axis will be placed across the
lower Great Lakes Friday morning, which will support the deepening
of a Miller Type A nor`easter off the coast of NYC. The trough axis
will continue to push east throughout the day Friday and allow for
upper level ridging to fill into its place. This will initially
support general northwest flow across the region, and considering
the residual moisture from the nor`easter, along with the colder
temperatures (around -15C at 850mb), lake effect snow will likely
continue and support some accumulations east/southeast of both lakes
Friday.
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3 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Buffalo just cares about lake snows lol

It will get a little more complicated across our region Thursday
night...as a southern stream storm system will track from the
Carolinas to the Mid Atlantic coast. The northern portion of the
associated pcpn shield will likely extend across at least parts of
our forecast area...while a west to southwest flow will maintain
lake snows. Likely pops will be in place for most of the region with
cat pops for the aforementioned lake snow areas.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Negatively tilted upper level trough axis will be placed across the
lower Great Lakes Friday morning, which will support the deepening
of a Miller Type A nor`easter off the coast of NYC. The trough axis
will continue to push east throughout the day Friday and allow for
upper level ridging to fill into its place. This will initially
support general northwest flow across the region, and considering
the residual moisture from the nor`easter, along with the colder
temperatures (around -15C at 850mb), lake effect snow will likely
continue and support some accumulations east/southeast of both lakes
Friday.

They're in cahoots with Buffwx. "Gotta have the lake snows. Where's the lake snows? There's the lake snows! Gotta drive to the lake snows. Report on the lake snows. Oh! More lake snows!"

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Just now, TugHillMatt said:

They're in cahoots with Buffwx. "Gotta have the lake snows. Where's the lake snows? There's the lake snows! Gotta drive to the lake snows. Report on the lake snows. Oh! More lake snows!"

well...its the only game in town!  And might actually amount to something more than nuisance mood snow...

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1 hour ago, TugHillMatt said:

BGM is now discussing the lake enhancement (or ocean enhancement?) I've been alluding to. @sferic@Syrmax

The low pressure system off the coast moves to the e/ne quickly
on Friday morning and the synoptic snow should end west to
east. However, behind the departing system another punch of cold
Canadian air will drop south through the region and bring with
it more lake effect snow showers into central NY. There could be
significant snowfall accumulations with this lake event as the
moisture from the coastal low wraps around the back side and
aids in the available moisture for LES. This cold air mass will
keep temperatures on Friday in the 20s for much of the region.

Yes, you educated me about this awhile back !

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