TugHillMatt Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 Wednesday's turning out to maybe be a sneaky event. 0Z Nam actually has a few inches of snow for CNY and an inch or 2 for Western NY on Wednesday. 3K and mesos have it too. Long Island and my family down in PA could get a warning event. I just hope this doesn't cause the late week event to shift NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 Tough timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 Yes, Dave. I saw the stupid HRRR. There's always one model that shows us getting the shaft. All the other ones don't show this. Can the one warm model be WRONG for once? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 I haven't checked all the models but daytime precipitation with temps above freezing and light precipitation rates don't bode well lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 On Wednesday, southern stream sourced shortwave trough trending toward impacting eastern forecast area with light precipitation, mainly in the form of snow. PVA from the shortwave with divergence aloft provides most of the forcing as stronger low-level convergence and moisture transport is tied into sfc low which will be shifting off the East Coast Wednesday afternoon. Look at forecast soundings and 2m temps points to wet-bulb cooling keeping majority of the precip as snow, though a mix of rain/snow showers is likely on edge of stronger lift /mid-level cooling with shortwave. Still will be sharp western edge to this system with only chance pops BUF to ROC to SLV. In terms of snow accumulations, could see as much as a few inches from NY/PA line to Finger Lakes and over higher terrain east of Lake Ontario. Given marginal temps in the lower 30s, most of the snow will be at highest elevations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 2 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: On Wednesday, southern stream sourced shortwave trough trending toward impacting eastern forecast area with light precipitation, mainly in the form of snow. PVA from the shortwave with divergence aloft provides most of the forcing as stronger low-level convergence and moisture transport is tied into sfc low which will be shifting off the East Coast Wednesday afternoon. Look at forecast soundings and 2m temps points to wet-bulb cooling keeping majority of the precip as snow, though a mix of rain/snow showers is likely on edge of stronger lift /mid-level cooling with shortwave. Still will be sharp western edge to this system with only chance pops BUF to ROC to SLV. In terms of snow accumulations, could see as much as a few inches from NY/PA line to Finger Lakes and over higher terrain east of Lake Ontario. Given marginal temps in the lower 30s, most of the snow will be at highest elevations We'll see. Some mesos have increased the totals, while others have cut back. Per usual, guess who's on the edge of the line...and a cliff? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 8, 2022 Author Share Posted March 8, 2022 @DeltaT13 remember this 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said: @DeltaT13 remember this One of the best ever!! We nearly did it again on Sunday but the parent low just wasn't deep enough. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 Oh, look! Another synoptic wave that gifts Syracuse the shaft. We suck. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 2 hours ago, TugHillMatt said: Oh, look! Another synoptic wave that gifts Syracuse the shaft. We suck. Yeah, I've checked out on this winter. Waiting for consistent warm temps and golf now. Not getting sucked into anything else this season. It's 3 winter's straight with basically nickel and dime snow and the occasional underperforming snowstorm. Next winter maybe we revert to mean. Hopefully. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 On 3/2/2022 at 3:15 PM, rochesterdave said: Yeah. I bet we get a big one out of this. The timing looks good for my ski trip on the 13th. Not bad. Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 Mod to heavy rates right now, roads are covered over. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 Hrrr looks good 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 9, 2022 Author Share Posted March 9, 2022 Long range EPS and GEFS look good. Probably 1 more storm after this weekends. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 Close to 3" and still dumping. Temp is up to 33.6°. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said: Long range EPS and GEFS look good. Probably 1 more storm after this weekends. I was just about to post. This weekend's system might not be the last snowstorm of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 41 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said: Was JUST looking at the radar. Wow, you guys are gonna play catch-up in the golden snowball over the next few days 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 Looks like the Syracuse snow shield is holding strong. Ithaca is all white, and Auburn is showing moderately right now. Looks like it's just started in the city. A flake or two here. Overcast is thick, so maybe we can do better with accumulations if it starts here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 Models undersold today. Busting high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 Between 4-5" here. Rate has slowed up a bit with the heaviest snow just off to the south now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 25 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Looks like the Syracuse snow shield is holding strong. Ithaca is all white, and Auburn is showing moderately right now. Looks like it's just started in the city. A flake or two here. Overcast is thick, so maybe we can do better with accumulations if it starts here. I love looking at webcams. Surprised to see no snow in Syracuse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 5 minutes ago, MJO812 said: I love looking at webcams. Surprised to see no snow in Syracuse. Well that's what mid 70s on Sunday will do to you lol The area hasn't had any snow since with the stuff today missing to the south.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 5 minutes ago, MJO812 said: I love looking at webcams. Surprised to see no snow in Syracuse. Too warm to accumulate. Snow is picking up here, temperature is 36. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 9, 2022 Author Share Posted March 9, 2022 6 minutes ago, MJO812 said: I love looking at webcams. Surprised to see no snow in Syracuse. It was 80 degrees there Sunday, why are you surprised. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: It was 80 degrees there Sunday, why are you surprised. Warmer than here ? It was in the low 70s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 9, 2022 Author Share Posted March 9, 2022 Just now, MJO812 said: Warmer than here ? It was in the low 70s It was 78 on my car thermometer as I drove through there. Syr officially hit 75. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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