rochesterdave Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 5 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Obviously this is before the GFS 6z.. On Friday morning there will be a few separate pieces spread out over portions of the conus that will come together to make for a potentially potent weekend storm system. A potent upper level trough and low over the southwestern US and Southern Rockies tracking mostly due east, a potent trough over the southern Canadian Prairies tracking southeast, and a weak disturbance over the Gulf of Mexico with high moisture content. As the two troughs track toward the Tennessee Valley from Friday morning through Saturday morning, an area of low pressure will form over the lower Mississippi Valley ahead of the southern trough on Friday evening, picking up the moisture from the GOMEX disturbance. With the amplitude of the southern trough the area of low pressure will track north-northeast along the western side of the Appalachians. As the two troughs phase over the Tennessee Valley, the area of low pressure will begin to rapidly strengthen over the Ohio Valley and WNY, potentially bombing out. Rapid deepening seems especially possible between the Tennessee Valley and the St. Lawrence Valley, where some guidance is suggesting pressure drops of ~30 mb in 18 hours. Currently, guidance is tracking this system northeast over a few different areas, the GFS is directly over WNY, the Euro over CNY, and the Canadian over ENY. Track of the storm will be key in the potential for rain vs. snow, and how windy it may get for Western and North Central NY. For now going with a slightly more east solution, resulting in a bit of a quicker change over from rain to snow, with likely POPs from late Friday evening through Saturday morning. There are a lot of parts to this storm scenario, and any changes in location or timing for the different parts mentioned above will have the potential to cause significant changes to the forecast. This is good news. Say what you want, these guys are good. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 Poor Matt, can never catch a break 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 15 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Poor Matt, can never catch a break LOL! I can't.... nope....not saying anything else. lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 What a dynamic storm, I'd sign up for it although we deal with a good amount of liquid lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 Something that strong will have lots of dynamic cooling. Really hoping we get a bonifide blizzard - Spring could come any time after that...lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 19 hours ago, DeltaT13 said: If only this storm was a touch stronger or still deepening and this would have been a very significant event. So close! Still a great day for a wind lover. Yes, another 5-10mb and this would've rivaled March 2017. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 GFS trend 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 Potential is certainly there. Let's see how this shakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 Wednesday event has been edging north on some guidance, probably wouldn't add up to much either way.. Granted it's the icon and Canadian but North is the name of the game lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 Canadian trend 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 57 minutes ago, vortmax said: Something that strong will have lots of dynamic cooling. Really hoping we get a bonifide blizzard - Spring could come any time after that...lol I almost "liked" this until your last sentence. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 2 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: I almost "liked" this until your last sentence. Many of us are looking for that last big one, give this winter a solid B+ and move on. I seems to recall a Frozen song... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 Ukie pretty similar to 0z, just a little stronger.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 Looking really good at this juncture 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 Members 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 1 minute ago, wolfie09 said: Members Now that’s a strong signal 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 GEFS Mean snowfall Not sure why I use COD anymore lol These maps are a lot better.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PerintonMan Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 Can we get a 960 low tracking from Scranton to Albany? As we say at the poker table -- "one time!" 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 Thanks @LakeEffectKing All future storm talk.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 If the threat becomes larger for Wednesday's event, someone should start a thread for that as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 Let's keep the north trend going lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 I'm shocked there's still some snow cover here on the north facing hills. We actually still had a pretty solid snowpack until yesterday morning...then the 70s took most of it away. But some still hanging in there for dear life. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 Nothing like that lake plain warmth lol Obviously can't afford to be fringed this time of year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 Totals were increased for tonight and tomorrow. With the warm weekend and wet conditions from today, it'll definitely be a Spring-like snowfall with roads remaining wet. BGM has "2 to 4 inches" for Onondaga County in the zone forecast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 Elmwood Cam looks to show decent snowfall coming down in Buffalo right now. Quite the front across New York state today! Dansville went from 30s in the early afternoon to 60s a few hours later, and now down to 46 with rain. Surprisingly, here in Syracuse we've stayed in the Upper 30s all day. Looks like the front got caught up in the higher elevations in the southern end of Onondaga county, as it's 40 here right now and in the mid 50s down in the Tully area on the southern end of the county. Sometimes that north wind can trap the cold air here in the Lake Plain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 36° with moderate-heavy rain.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 Down to 33° with mostly sleet now.. Some mangled flakes as well.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 50 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: 36° with moderate-heavy rain.. That line has gotten pretty hot looking on radar since it passed you. Headed my way now with a severe T-storm watch in effect. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 All snow now with a light covering on the deck but precipitation looks to end shortly . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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